PLTR · Palantir Technologies
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $178.34
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
5.8% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $178.34, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 2.6% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $178.34, the 2 November 2026 close before the third-quarter results, which would show the shares erasing the post-report decline and leading again. Fourth-quarter total contract value above the second quarter's $3.373 billion would also show the call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 3 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 2,313
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +95.9
- Gross margin (%)
- 83.4
- Operating margin (%)
- 46.9
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 4,054
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 10,562
- Price to earnings (×)
- 117.8
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 57.9
All filed numbers
What Palantir Technologies reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 2,313 | +95.9 | 83.4 | 46.9 |
| first filed | 1,936 | +92.8 | 84.7 | 47.1 |
| first filed | 1,633 | +84.7 | 86.8 | 46.2 |
| first filed | 1,407 | +70.0 | 84.6 | 40.9 |
| first filed | 1,181 | +62.8 | 82.4 | 33.3 |
| first filed | 1,004 | +48.0 | 80.8 | 26.8 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 1,148 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 3,669 | 1,128 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +0.1 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 4,097 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 43.2 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 4,054 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 10,562 |
| Debt ($M) | None reported |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) no debt reported | 10,562 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +64.3% on a year | 1,200 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) +88.5% on a year | 4,900 |
| Receivables ($M) | 1,884 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 11,228 |
| Market value ($M) | 432,394 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) no debt reported | 421,832 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) no debt reported | 57.9 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) no debt reported | 126.8 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 117.8 |
| Price to book value (×) | 38.5 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 0.9 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 2.2% of shares outstanding sold short, 2.4 days of average trading to cover, +0.9% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $163.1M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $937.8M |
The thesis
Palantir Technologies looks more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. Contract signings grew only 6% in the third quarter while revenue grew 96%, and no company report is due before the fourth-quarter results, expected around 1 February 2027. That report settles the call: total contract value has to recover from $2.918 billion.
Palantir's 2 November 2026 results release showed revenue of $2.313 billion, up 96% from a year earlier. The same release showed total contract value, the value of deals signed in the quarter, up 6%, after 49% growth in the second quarter. Remaining performance obligations, the contracted revenue not yet recognised, were $4.88 billion at 30 September 2026 against $4.90 billion three months earlier, per The Crypto Basic on 3 November 2026.
The rating is Low because the signings slowdown is the newest fact about future revenue, and nothing reported since 2 November 2026 has answered it. The shares closed at $171.58 on 12 November 2026, still below the 2 November 2026 close before the results, and down 1.4% over three months in adjusted daily closes. The price reflects the slower signings more than the raised guidance: the shares have not regained their pre-report level even after Citi, Barclays and Truist raised targets.
Bullish and bearish views on Palantir Technologies Inc.
The bull case on Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR), in brief: revenue beat by a wide margin. The bear case: signings growth slowed sharply.
Bull case
- Revenue beat by a wide margin. Third-quarter revenue of $2.313 billion, reported 2 November 2026, beat the company's $2.160–2.164 billion guidance. US commercial revenue was $984 million, up 148%, and passed US government revenue of $953 million, per the release and Blockonomi on 11 November 2026.
- Guidance rose above expectations. Palantir raised 2026 revenue guidance to $8.530–8.534 billion from $8.150–8.158 billion on 2 November 2026. Fourth-quarter guidance of $2.649–2.653 billion compares with a $2.46 billion analyst estimate cited by Benzinga on 5 November 2026.
- Cash generation is large. Adjusted free cash flow was $1.216 billion in the third quarter, per the 2 November 2026 release. The adjusted operating margin was 62% against 51% a year earlier, per 24/7 Wall St. on 3 November 2026.
- Most analysts raised targets after the report. Citi moved to $265 from $250 and Piper Sandler to $235 from $231, per 24/7 Wall St. on 3 November 2026. Barclays raised its target to $273 and Truist to $250 on 4 November 2026, per Benzinga, and Fubon Securities started coverage with a Buy rating and a $200 target on 10 November 2026, per fiscal.ai.
- Washington ties are being reinforced. Palantir hired former Democratic Senator Jon Tester as an adviser on congressional scrutiny of its government contracts, fiscal.ai reported on 9 November 2026. The White House nominated Palantir's chief information security officer, Michael LoSapio, to lead the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency on 10 November 2026.
Bear case
- Signings growth slowed sharply. Total contract value was $2.918 billion in the third quarter, up 6%, against $3.373 billion, up 49%, in the second, per the 2 November 2026 and 3 August 2026 releases. US commercial contract value fell to $1.463 billion from $2.132 billion.
- Long-dated contracted revenue shrank. Long-term remaining performance obligations fell to $2.74 billion from $2.81 billion in the third quarter, per The Crypto Basic on 3 November 2026. RBC described remaining performance obligations as flat from the second quarter, per 24/7 Wall St. on 3 November 2026.
- The valuation still assumes rapid growth. 24/7 Wall St. put the shares at about 252 times earnings on 3 November 2026. At that multiple, slower signings weigh more than one strong revenue quarter.
- Not every analyst is constructive. RBC kept an Underperform rating with a $130 target and Morgan Stanley an Equal Weight rating with a $233 target, per 24/7 Wall St. on 3 November 2026. StoneX kept a Hold rating on 6 November 2026, per fiscal.ai.
- Insiders and a large holder are sellers. Officer Shyam Sankar filed a Form 144 notice of a proposed sale of 300,000 shares, reported by fiscal.ai on 11 November 2026 and again on 12 November 2026. Director Lauren Friedman Stat sold 1,358 shares at $186.29 on 2 November 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan, per a Form 4 filed 4 November 2026, and Ark Invest trimmed its Palantir stake on 10 November 2026, per Benzinga.
- Government spending is a new question. Democrats won both chambers of Congress on 3 November 2026, and Benzinga tied the 5 November 2026 fall partly to federal defense spending concerns. The Financial Times reported on 5 November 2026 that the UK plans to extend Palantir's National Health Service contract while drawing up plans for a possible replacement.
Price setup
The shares fell to a $154.99 close on 5 November 2026, the eighth straight losing session per Seeking Alpha. They recovered to $160.38 on 6 November 2026, $169.20 on 9 November 2026, $168.82 on 10 November 2026, $172.40 on 11 November 2026 and $171.58 on 12 November 2026.
The 12 November 2026 close sits below the 50-day moving average of $185.08 and above the 200-day moving average of $153.64, both from adjusted daily closes as of 12 November 2026. It is 19.4% below the 52-week intraday high of $212.94 set on 12 October 2026, and well above the 52-week closing low of $107.27 on 25 June 2026.
The 2 November 2026 close, the last before the results, is the level the case turns on. The rebound since 5 November 2026 has stalled short of it for two sessions. A close above it would mean the market has looked past the signings slowdown; a slide back toward the 5 November 2026 low would mean it has not.
Catalysts ahead
- ~1 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 results. Shows whether total contract value recovers from $2.918 billion toward the second quarter's $3.373 billion and whether revenue meets the $2.649–2.653 billion guidance.
What would change the view
A daily close above $178.34, the 2 November 2026 close before the third-quarter results, which would show the shares erasing the post-report decline and leading again. Fourth-quarter total contract value above the second quarter's $3.373 billion would also show the call wrong.
What it trades with
Palantir fell with the wider artificial intelligence (AI) software trade on 5 November 2026. CrowdStrike sank 9% and Okta 10% that day, per 24/7 Wall St. Benzinga's 9 November 2026 coverage tied Palantir's rebound to a broader technology rally, and AI infrastructure names stayed under pressure on 12 November 2026, when Nebius trimmed its 2026 outlook to the low end of its range.
Palantir also trades with defense contractors on federal spending news. Benzinga reported defense stocks falling on 4 November 2026 after the Democratic sweep of Congress. Sector moves in AI software and defense may drive the shares as much as company news until the fourth-quarter report.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Palantir reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $2.313 billion, up 96% from a year earlier, with US commercial revenue of $984 million, up 148%, and US government revenue of $953 million. Palantir third-quarter 2026 results release (8-K) · as of
- Palantir closed $2.918 billion of total contract value in the third quarter, up 6%, against $3.373 billion, up 49%, in the second quarter; US commercial contract value fell to $1.463 billion from $2.132 billion. Palantir third- and second-quarter 2026 results releases (8-K) · as of
- Palantir raised 2026 revenue guidance to $8.530–8.534 billion from $8.150–8.158 billion and guided fourth-quarter revenue to $2.649–2.653 billion; adjusted free cash flow was $1.216 billion in the quarter. Palantir third-quarter 2026 results release (8-K) · as of
- Remaining performance obligations were $4.88 billion at 30 September 2026 against $4.90 billion at 30 June 2026; the long-term portion fell to $2.74 billion from $2.81 billion. The Crypto Basic, 3 November 2026, citing Palantir's third-quarter results · as of
- Citi raised its target to $265 from $250 (Buy), Piper Sandler to $235 from $231, Morgan Stanley to $233 from $205 (Equal Weight) and RBC to $130 from $90 (Underperform). 24/7 Wall St., 3 November 2026 · as of
- Barclays raised its Palantir target to $273 and Truist to $250; Fubon Securities initiated with a Buy rating and $200 target on 10 November 2026; StoneX kept a Hold rating on 6 November 2026. Benzinga 4 November 2026; fiscal.ai 6 November 2026 and 10 November 2026 · as of
- Director Lauren Friedman Stat sold 1,358 shares at $186.29 on 2 November 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan; officer Shyam Sankar filed a Form 144 notice of a proposed sale of 300,000 shares. SEC Form 4 filed 4 November 2026; fiscal.ai 11 November 2026 · as of
- Palantir hired former Senator Jon Tester as an adviser on congressional scrutiny of its government contracts, and the White House nominated its security chief Michael LoSapio to lead CISA. fiscal.ai, 9 November 2026 and 10 November 2026 · as of
Sources
- Palantir Technologies Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- Palantir Technologies Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- Palantir’s 96% Revenue Growth Drives Analyst Optimism as Price Targets Rise · 247wallst.com ·
- Palantir Stock Falls Over 8% After Earnings; Contract Growth Slows · thecryptobasic.com ·
- Palantir (PLTR) Stock Slips Despite Strong AI Revenue · blockonomi.com ·
- Why Is Palantir Stock Falling on Thursday? · benzinga.com
- Palantir falls 10%, its eighth straight session of losses (PLTR:NASDAQ) · seekingalpha.com
- Palantir Tumbles 10%, CrowdStrike Sinks 9% as Wall Street Dumps Software's AI Winners; Okta Drops 10% · 247wallst.com ·
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