IPAR · Interparfums
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a daily close below $127.63
Note written ·
How this view changed
- · Rating raised from Low to Medium. Results, 4 November 2026: Third-quarter operating margin rose to 27.4% from 25.3%, EPS was $2.13 against $2.05, and fiscal 2026 sales guidance was raised to $1.490 billion from $1.480 billion.
Price against the kill line
4.5% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close below $127.63, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 20.2% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close below $127.63, the prior 52-week high that the shares have since cleared. A cut to fiscal 2026 sales guidance of $1.490 billion, or 2027 guidance pointing to lower EPS, would separately break the case.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Consumer Staples
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 4 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 430
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- 0.0
- Gross margin (%)
- 67.1
- Operating margin (%)
- 27.4
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 243
- Price to earnings (×)
- 25.1
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- 5.7
All filed numbers
What Interparfums reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 430 | 0.0 | 67.1 | 27.4 |
| first filed | 341 | +2.1 | 65.5 | 14.4 |
| first filed | 345 | +1.8 | 65.1 | 21.5 |
| first filed | 386 | +6.8 | 61.5 | 7.1 |
| first filed | 430 | +1.2 | 63.5 | 25.3 |
| first filed | 334 | −2.4 | 66.2 | 17.7 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 118 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 170 | 68.2 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −0.3 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 249 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 5.5 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 243 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | Not reported |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt plus short-term borrowings | 195 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | Not available |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 375 |
| Inventory ($M) | 376 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 879 |
| Market value ($M) | 4,272 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not available |
| Price to earnings (×) | 25.1 |
| Price to book value (×) | 4.9 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 5.7 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 6.1% of shares outstanding sold short, 8.9 days of average trading to cover, −4.7% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $105K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $4.0M |
The thesis
Interparfums has turned a flat-sales quarter into higher profit: third-quarter operating margin rose to 27.4% and full-year sales guidance went up, so the case now rests on the 2027 outlook due 18 November 2026. The shares closed at $135.56 on 10 November 2026, 0.4% below the 52-week high of $136.16 and up 18.2% over three months (adjusted daily closes).
The narrative is accelerating: the 4 November 2026 report was followed by price-target raises from Canaccord Genuity (6 November 2026) and Jefferies (7 November 2026), and the shares have moved from $114.24 on 28 October 2026 to a new high zone. Net sales were flat at $430 million, but operating income rose 9% to $118 million and diluted earnings per share (EPS) reached $2.13, up 4% from $2.05 (company release, 4 November 2026). The company raised fiscal 2026 sales guidance to $1.490 billion from $1.480 billion and held EPS guidance at $4.85.
Bullish and bearish views on Interparfums, Inc.
The bull case on Interparfums, Inc. (IPAR), in brief: margin rose on flat sales. The bear case: sales did not grow.
Bull case
- Margin rose on flat sales. Third-quarter operating margin was 27.4% against 25.3% a year earlier, and gross margin was 67.1% against 63.5% (company release, 4 November 2026). The second-quarter margin of 14.4% against 17.7% (4 August 2026) had been the main worry.
- Earnings beat estimates. A 4 November 2026 earnings-data headline put third-quarter EPS of $2.13 against a $1.89 estimate, with sales of $429.508 million against $429.253 million.
- Sales guidance was raised. Fiscal 2026 sales guidance moved to $1.490 billion from $1.480 billion (company release, 4 November 2026).
- Core brands keep growing. Year to date Coach is up 15%, Montblanc 8%, GUESS 7%, Roberto Cavalli 6% and Jimmy Choo 5% (company release, 4 November 2026). Lacoste, down 9% over nine months, grew 4% in the third quarter.
- Analysts are lifting targets. Canaccord Genuity raised its target to $154 on 6 November 2026 and Jefferies raised its target to $156 with a Buy rating on 7 November 2026 (news headlines). Canaccord's prior target was $151.
- Long licenses add visibility. PUMA runs through 2037 with a 2027 launch (8-K, 22 September 2026), and Cavalli through 2046 (company announcement, 17 September 2026). Delayed giftset shipments of about $10 million moved into the fourth quarter (company release, 4 November 2026).
Bear case
- Sales did not grow. Third-quarter net sales were $430 million, flat; nine-month sales rose 1% to $1.115 billion. The Middle East conflict cost 1 point of growth in the quarter and 2 points over nine months (company release, 4 November 2026).
- Nine-month profit is still flat. Nine-month operating income was $241 million against $243 million, and nine-month operating margin was 21.6% against 22.0%. Nine-month EPS was $4.43 against $4.36 (company release, 4 November 2026).
- EPS guidance did not move. Full-year EPS guidance stayed at $4.85, below a $4.89 estimate cited in a 4 November 2026 headline; the sales guidance of $1.490 billion was also under a $1.492 billion estimate.
- Some regions are weak. Western Europe fell 3% and Eastern Europe fell 15% year to date, which the company attributed mainly to operational challenges at Lanvin and Lacoste (company release, 4 November 2026).
- Analysts remain split. BWS Financial's Sell rating and $85 target dates from 17 August 2026. TD Cowen and Berenberg moved to Hold in August with targets of $120 and $130.
Price setup
The shares closed at $135.56 on 10 November 2026, against a 52-week high of $136.16. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI), a 0-to-100 gauge of recent buying pressure, stood at 83.8, well above the 70 level that marks an overbought reading. It was 59.5 on 28 October 2026.
The shares have cleared the prior 52-week high of $127.63. That level is now the nearest downside marker, and the June–July trading range low of $110 sits far below. The consensus of analyst targets is not available; the published targets run from $85 (BWS Financial) to $156 (Jefferies), so the shares trade near the top of a wide range.
Crowding evidence is limited to what can be seen: two target raises in two days, a close within 0.4% of the high, and an RSI above 80. Initial 2027 guidance arrives after the close on 18 November 2026.
Catalysts ahead
- 18 November 2026: Initial 2027 guidance, after the market close. Shows whether the third-quarter margin gain and the long licenses translate into 2027 sales and EPS growth.
- 15 December 2026: Record date for the $0.80 quarterly dividend, payable 31 December 2026. Confirms the company's cash return continues alongside the raised sales guidance.
What would change the view
A daily close below $127.63, the prior 52-week high that the shares have since cleared. A cut to fiscal 2026 sales guidance of $1.490 billion, or 2027 guidance pointing to lower EPS, would separately break the case.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- Profit growth stalls because sales are flat and launch spending for PUMA rises ahead of its 2027 revenue. Confirmed by: 2027 guidance on 18 November 2026 showing EPS flat or lower, or a fourth-quarter operating margin below the year-earlier level.
- The shares are extended after a rapid rise, leaving less room for disappointment. Confirmed by: a daily close below $127.63, the prior 52-week high, after an RSI reading of 83.8 on 10 November 2026.
- European brand weakness persists, with Lanvin and Lacoste cited for Eastern Europe's 15% decline. Confirmed by: further regional sales declines in the fourth-quarter report or 2027 commentary.
- Delayed giftset shipments do not arrive in the fourth quarter, leaving U.S. sales weak. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter results or management commentary showing the roughly $10 million of sales slipping into 2027.
What it trades with
Interparfums sells licensed fragrances for fashion and lifestyle brands, so its sales follow consumer spending on discretionary beauty and gifting, and the dollar-euro rate. It owns 72% of Interparfums SA, which reports on its own calendar (company release, 17 September 2026). Brand-owner licensors such as Coach, Montblanc and Guess drive results, so licence renewals matter more than any single product launch.
The evidence, claim by claim (6)
- Q3 2026 net sales $430 million, flat; operating income $118 million, up 9%; operating margin 27.4% vs 25.3%; diluted EPS $2.13 vs $2.05. Interparfums 8-K, Q3 2026 results release · as of
- Fiscal 2026 sales guidance raised to $1.490 billion from $1.480 billion; diluted EPS guidance held at $4.85. Interparfums 8-K, Q3 2026 results release · as of
- Nine-month net sales $1.115 billion, up 1%; operating margin 21.6% vs 22.0%; diluted EPS $4.43 vs $4.36. Interparfums 8-K, Q3 2026 results release · as of
- Initial 2027 guidance planned for 18 November 2026 after the market close; quarterly dividend $0.80 payable 31 December 2026 to holders of record 15 December 2026. Interparfums 8-K, Q3 2026 results release · as of
- Canaccord Genuity raised its price target to $154 (Buy) on 6 November 2026; Jefferies raised its target to $156 (Buy) on 7 November 2026. Analyst-action news headlines · as of
- Delayed giftset shipments of about $10 million are to be recognized in the fourth quarter; Middle East conflict cost 1% of Q3 growth. Interparfums Q3 2026 release as reported by Zacks · as of
Sources
- INTERPARFUMS INC - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- Zacks
- StockStory