NBIS · Nebius Group

The thesis

Nebius Group's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. Its 12 November 2026 report beat on third-quarter revenue, but it pushed part of Microsoft's capacity into 2027, guided 2026 revenue to the low end of its range and raised spending again. The fourth-quarter report, expected around February 2027, will show whether the delays have stopped and whether the larger spending plan can be funded without more new shares.

Nebius reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $980.8 million, up 571% from $146.1 million a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation) was $465.8 million, according to its 12 November 2026 Form 6-K. Benzinga put the consensus at $907.5 million. The shareholder letter says about $325 million of that revenue was non-recurring income from the company's asset-light model, so a one-off accounts for much of the beat.

The forecast came down in the same letter. Nebius now expects 2026 revenue at the low end of $3.0–3.4 billion as some revenue moves into early 2027. It dropped its $7–9 billion annualised revenue run-rate target for December 2026 and now targets a run-rate above $7 billion in February 2027. It raised 2026 capital expenditure to about $27 billion from $20–25 billion.

The rating is Low because the report confirmed the delay risk, the 2027 funding plan includes new equity, and the sector's financing worries grew on 13 November 2026. The shares fell 16.8% on 12 November 2026, the day Jensen Huang resigned as Nvidia's chief executive (NBC News), and another 9.9% on 13 November 2026 to close at $115.88. Analysts cut their targets after the report: DA Davidson to $125 with a Neutral rating, Baird to $200 with Outperform and Truist to $245 with Buy, Benzinga reported on 13 November 2026. The fall shows the market has priced in a long delay. The case now turns on whether deliveries return to schedule.

Bullish and bearish views on Nebius Group N.V.

The bull case on Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS), in brief: revenue and margin beat expectations. The bear case: Microsoft capacity slipped into 2027.

Bull case

• Revenue and margin beat expectations. Third-quarter 2026 revenue of $980.8 million topped the $907.5 million consensus, and AI cloud revenue was $973.8 million, up 643%, the 12 November 2026 shareholder letter shows. The AI cloud adjusted EBITDA margin was 53.2%.
• The 2027 forecast sits above estimates. On 12 November 2026 Nebius gave preliminary 2027 revenue guidance of $12–13 billion, against an $11.976 billion consensus reported by Benzinga. It expects to break even before tax in the fourth quarter of 2027, after financing costs.
• New enterprise customers signed. Databricks, Datadog and Snowflake signed multi-year AI cloud agreements, and Palantir named Nebius a preferred AI cloud partner, the company said on 12 November 2026. It did not disclose terms. Customers have signed more than $12 billion of contract value since the start of the third quarter.
• Contracted demand is large. Remaining performance obligations, the revenue under signed contracts not yet delivered, were $38.7 billion at 30 September 2026, up from $37.5 billion at 30 June 2026. The letter says Microsoft and Meta contracts together account for more than $40 billion of committed revenue.
• Two brokers still see upside after the report. Truist's $245 target and Baird's $200 target, both set on 13 November 2026 per Benzinga, sit above the $115.88 close of that day. Nebius held $7.43 billion of cash at 30 September 2026, per the 6-K.

Bear case

• Microsoft capacity slipped into 2027. The letter says more than half of the New Jersey capacity contracted to Microsoft should be delivered by the end of 2026, and the remaining tranches are now due in the second quarter of 2027. The site operator, DataOne, retired temporary power generation late in the third quarter before permanent power was ready.
• The forecast was trimmed. 2026 revenue is now guided to the low end of $3.0–3.4 billion, and the run-rate target moved two months later, to February 2027, the 12 November 2026 letter shows.
• Spending keeps rising. 2026 capital expenditure is now about $27 billion, and 2027 is guided at $40–45 billion. Third-quarter capital expenditure alone was $7.30 billion, against $980.8 million of revenue, per the 6-K.
• Funding relies partly on new shares. In the first nine months of 2026 Nebius raised $10.09 billion from convertible notes, $3.91 billion from selling treasury shares and $2.0 billion from pre-funded warrants, the 6-K cash-flow statement shows. The letter says 2027 will be funded with a mix of debt and equity, with prepayments and asset-backed loans covering 75–85% of capital expenditure.
• Debt and sector financing stress are rising. Debt was $14.19 billion at 30 September 2026, and third-quarter interest expense was $112.5 million, per the 6-K. On 13 November 2026 Benzinga reported that Nscale, an Nvidia-backed peer, said in its updated US listing filing that it needs more financing, with its nine-month loss widening to $1.69 billion.
• An insider sold before the report. Chief revenue officer Marc Boroditsky exercised 7,000 options at $40.00 and sold 7,000 shares at $147.97 on 11 November 2026 under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 plan, an SEC Form 4 filed on 13 November 2026 shows.

Price setup

The shares closed at $115.88 on 13 November 2026, down from $154.69 on 11 November 2026, two sessions earlier. That close is below every close since 6 November 2026, when the shares ended at $129.49. It is 61.4% below the intraday 52-week high of $299.86 set on 22 June 2026. The 52-week closing low is $73.87, from 5 February 2026.

As of the 13 November 2026 close, the shares sit far below the 50-day moving average of $194.6 and the 200-day moving average of $179.35. The three-month change is −56.9%, measured from the $268.85 close of 17 August 2026.

Directors traded small amounts under Rule 10b5-1 plans in October, SEC Form 4 filings show. Arne Grimme bought shares on several days between 19 October 2026 and 29 October 2026 at prices between $153.96 and $169.99. John Wilson Boynton IV sold 7,260 shares at an average $177.63 on 15 October 2026 and 333 shares at $173.07 on 29 October 2026.

Catalysts ahead

• 17 November 2026: Nvidia third-quarter fiscal 2027 results and call. Nvidia's first report since Jensen Huang's resignation. It shows whether demand for data-centre processors, and supply of them, holds up for the AI cloud group that Nebius trades with.
• ~February 2027 (est.): Nebius fourth-quarter 2026 results and shareholder letter. Shows whether more than half of Microsoft's New Jersey capacity was delivered by the end of 2026, whether 2026 revenue reached $3.0 billion, and whether the run-rate is on track to pass $7 billion in February 2027.
• ~June 2027 (est.): Remaining Microsoft New Jersey capacity tranches due in the second quarter of 2027. On-time delivery would bring the deferred revenue back into the forecast. A further slip would extend the delay that caused the 2026 guidance cut.
• ~October 2027 (est.): Maturity of the $3.5 billion, 364-day Citi senior secured facility. Shows whether Nebius can replace short-dated debt with long-term asset-backed loans while funding $40–45 billion of 2027 capital expenditure.

What would change the view

A daily close above $188.41, the 15 October 2026 close, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; or a fourth-quarter 2026 report showing all of Microsoft's New Jersey capacity delivered ahead of the second-quarter 2027 schedule.

What it trades with

Nebius trades with CoreWeave and IREN as one group of specialist AI cloud providers. On 11 November 2026 CoreWeave's third-quarter beat lifted the group, and Nebius closed at $154.69. On 12 November 2026 the group fell together after Huang's resignation, with Nebius leading the declines, TradingView reported. On 13 November 2026 Applied Digital fell as well, and Benzinga tied the drop to Nvidia's leadership change and Nebius's trimmed outlook.

The group depends on Nvidia's graphics processors. Nvidia's 17 November 2026 report, its first under new leadership, is the next event the whole group shares. Nasdaq-100 membership since 22 June 2026 means index-fund flows move the shares alongside company news.