HAFN · Hafnia

The thesis

Hafnia Limited's shares are modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over the next three months. Scorpio Tankers reported fourth-quarter bookings far above the $30,716 per day Hafnia had booked for the third quarter, and the 18 November 2026 third-quarter report shows whether Hafnia's own fourth-quarter bookings match.

The shares closed at $9.62 on 12 November 2026, up from $9.10 on 10 November 2026 and 13.5% below the 52-week intraday high of $11.12 set on 28 October 2026. The three-month gain is 31.4%. The close sits below the 50-day average and above the 200-day average, so the October rally has partly reversed without erasing the year's advance.

A weekly shipping tally dated 9 November 2026 reported tanker equities down 16.12% for the week, the steepest fall of any shipping sector, while still up 94.53% year to date. The S&P 500 fell 2.68% in the same week. The rate risks on the table are the Reuters report of 15 October 2026 that the US is weighing easing sanctions on shadow-fleet vessels, and any reopening of Middle East oil routes.

What the price reflects: the 31.4% three-month gain and the peer results of 28 October 2026 and 4 November 2026 are in the shares, while Hafnia's own fourth-quarter bookings are not yet reported.

Bullish and bearish views on Hafnia Limited

The bull case on Hafnia Limited (HAFN), in brief: peer fourth-quarter bookings are far higher. The bear case: third-quarter bookings were lower.

Bull case

• Peer fourth-quarter bookings are far higher. Scorpio Tankers' 28 October 2026 results reported fourth-quarter bookings so far at $181,000 per day for its large LR2 vessels (44% of days) and $56,000 per day for its medium MR vessels (47% of days). Hafnia operates both sizes.
• TORM confirmed strong earnings. TORM's 4 November 2026 report showed time charter equivalent (TCE) earnings of $353 million, up from $236 million a year earlier, and an interim dividend of $1.35 per share. Hafnia holds about 19.85% of TORM after its September purchases.
• Second-quarter earnings were strong. Hafnia's 28 August 2026 release reported TCE earnings of $372.9 million at $44,093 per day, net profit of $277.8 million ($0.56 per share) and a dividend of $0.5003 per share.
• Low debt. The 28 August 2026 release reported net asset value of about $4.4 billion and a net loan-to-value ratio of 13.0%.
• A broker target sits well above the price. BTIG raised its target to $12 from $10 on 18 September 2026 and kept a Buy rating.

Bear case

• Third-quarter bookings were lower. By 17 August 2026, 80% of earning days were covered at $30,716 per day, against $44,093 in the second quarter. Scorpio's fleet-wide TCE fell to $37,508 per day in the third quarter from $52,661 in the second, per its 28 October 2026 results.
• Sector shares are falling. Tanker equities lost 16.12% in the week reported on 9 November 2026, while the S&P 500 fell 2.68%, according to the same weekly tally.
• Rate policy risk. Reuters reported on 15 October 2026 that the US is considering easing sanctions on shadow-fleet vessels to cut freight rates. More available vessels would pull rates down for compliant fleets such as Hafnia's.
• Insider sale and new shares. Chief financial officer Perry Van Echtelt sold 50,000 shares on Oslo Børs on 9 October 2026 at an average NOK 101.5203, per Hafnia's insider notification. Hafnia placed 35,488,875 new shares at NOK 80.00 on 5 October 2026, bringing the count to 535,331,154.
• The dividend follows profit. Payout was 90% of net profit for the second quarter, so a lower third-quarter profit cuts the dividend per share.

Price setup

The last close was $9.62 on 12 November 2026. The 50-day average is $9.89 and the 200-day average is $7.76, both from adjusted closes. The shares sit 2.7% under the first and 24% over the second by those figures' gap to the quoted close.

The 52-week intraday high is $11.12, set on 28 October 2026. The 52-week closing low is $5.21, set on 2 January 2026. Closes since 5 November 2026 ran between $9.10 (10 November 2026) and $9.62 (12 November 2026).

The reported net asset value from 28 August 2026 is the nearest asset-based reference below the price. The 18 November 2026 release updates it.

Timing risks cluster around the report: the earnings date is five days away, a primary insider sold into the rally, and new shares were issued in October.

Catalysts ahead

• 18 November 2026: Hafnia third-quarter 2026 results, with dividend, fourth-quarter bookings and net asset value. Shows the final third-quarter TCE rate against the $30,716 per day booked by mid-August, and whether fourth-quarter bookings follow the higher peer rates.
• 19 November 2026: Hafnia third-quarter 2026 results presentation by chief executive Søren Steenberg Jensen, listed for 11:00. Management commentary on fourth-quarter bookings, fleet mix and the TORM stake follows the report.
• ~25 November 2026 (est.): Hafnia dividend ex-date for the third-quarter payout. The dividend per share follows third-quarter net profit under the variable payout policy; ex-dates differ between Oslo and New York.

What would change the view

A daily close below $8.89, the per-share net asset value Hafnia reported on 28 August 2026, which would put the shares under reported asset value. Fourth-quarter bookings at or below the $30,716 per day booked for the third quarter, reported on 18 November 2026, would also break the case.

The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:

• Third-quarter earnings and the dividend fall sharply from the second quarter's $44,093 per day and $0.5003 per share. Confirmed by: a 18 November 2026 report with a third-quarter TCE rate near or below $30,716 per day and a dividend per share well below $0.5003.
• Product tanker rates fall as route disruptions ease or US sanctions on shadow-fleet vessels are relaxed. Confirmed by: US action following the Reuters report of 15 October 2026, or Scorpio or TORM updates showing falling LR2 and MR spot earnings.
• Hafnia's fourth-quarter bookings lag the peers' because of different fleet mix or earlier fixing. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter bookings in the 18 November 2026 report well below Scorpio's $181,000 per day for LR2 and $56,000 per day for MR vessels.
• More shares are issued to pay for further TORM purchases or other deals. Confirmed by: another Hafnia share placement, or a TORM offer paid for with Hafnia stock.
• Reported net asset value per share falls as vessel values or the TORM stake mark down. Confirmed by: a per-share net asset value in the 18 November 2026 release below the figure reported on 28 August 2026.

What it trades with

Hafnia trades with other listed product tanker owners, mainly Scorpio Tankers and TORM. The stake of about 19.85% in TORM links part of Hafnia's value to TORM's share price and results. Hafnia also moves with oil route disruption headlines and with the oil price, because both drive product tanker rates.