INSW · International Seaways
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $125.04
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
15.8% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $125.04, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 12.4% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $125.04, the highest close of the last 63 sessions (13 October 2026), which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again and prove this call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Industrials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 5 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 483
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +146.0
- Operating margin (%)
- 72.7
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 796
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −246
- Price to earnings (×)
- 5.1
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 3.6
- Enterprise value to operating income (×)
- 5.2
All filed numbers
What International Seaways reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 483 | +146.0 | 72.7 |
| first filed | 467 | +138.8 | 64.5 |
| first filed | 326 | +77.5 | 88.7 |
| first filed | 268 | +37.6 | 51.6 |
| first filed | 196 | −12.8 | 40.1 |
| first filed | 196 | −24.0 | 35.5 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 345 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 1,053 | 344 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +0.6 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 798 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 1.9 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 796 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 454 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 700 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −246 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | 0.0 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 382 |
| Inventory ($M) | 22.0 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 2,366 |
| Market value ($M) | 5,383 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 5,629 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 3.6 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 5.2 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 5.1 |
| Price to book value (×) | 2.3 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 14.8 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 6.5% of shares outstanding sold short, 4.2 days of average trading to cover, +12.6% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $76.6M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $176.8M |
The thesis
International Seaways reported record third-quarter profit and kept a $5.05 a share dividend, yet the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months because tanker spot rates are easing from their peak. The direction of spot rates, then the 23 December 2026 dividend payment and the fourth-quarter report expected around late February 2027, settle it.
The shares closed at $101.27 on 11 November 2026, up from $94.47 on 5 November 2026, the day of the report. That close is 19.8% below the 52-week high of $126.27 set intraday on 14 October 2026. The market has priced in a peak in earnings: the shares fell on the day the company beat estimates, even though more than half of fourth-quarter revenue days were fixed above $172,000 a day, per the 5 November 2026 earnings call.
Benzinga reported on 9 October 2026 that nine of 13 US-listed tanker stocks had more than doubled in 2026. With the group already re-rated, the question for the next quarter is how long peak earnings last, and the third-quarter beat did not answer it.
Bullish and bearish views on International Seaways, Inc.
The bull case on International Seaways, Inc. (INSW), in brief: fourth-quarter bookings are far above third-quarter earnings. The bear case: spot rates have turned down.
Bull case
- Fourth-quarter bookings are far above third-quarter earnings. More than half of fourth-quarter revenue days are fixed above $172,000 a day, per the 5 November 2026 call. Blended spot earnings were about $68,000 a day in the third quarter, per the company's 16 October 2026 update.
- Third-quarter results beat estimates. Adjusted earnings were $5.84 a share against a $3.60 estimate, and revenue was $483 million against a $350.1 million estimate, per Benzinga on 5 November 2026. Net income of $344.2 million included a $53 million gain on a Suezmax sale, per the company's release.
- Payouts continue, and the buyback grew. The board declared $5.05 a share on 3 November 2026, payable 23 December 2026, bringing dividends declared over twelve months to $16.80, per the release. The board also raised the share repurchase program to $100 million and extended it through 2028.
- Debt is small against the fleet. Total liquidity was about $964 million at 30 September 2026, and net loan-to-value was under 6%, per the release. The company signed a $500 million revolving credit facility with Nordea Bank and other lenders on 23 October 2026, per company news.
- The Bruton deal is closed. Company news reported that Bruton Limited's merger with International Seaways took effect on 2 November 2026, after Bruton shareholders approved it on 30 October 2026. The deal adds four VLCC newbuilds and about 3.12 million new shares.
- Few sanctioned ships could return. Breakwave Advisors wrote on 30 October 2026 that the likeliest candidates for mainstream trade are 7 very large crude carriers (VLCCs), 14 Suezmaxes and 58 Aframax or LR2 tankers. Kpler estimated on 15 October 2026 that only about 24 of some 160 sanctioned VLCCs could realistically rejoin global trade.
Bear case
- Spot rates have turned down. Baltic Exchange figures showed the Gulf of Oman-to-China VLCC rate at about 776 on the Worldscale freight index in the first week of November, down from 841 a week earlier. Breakwave Advisors titled its 30 October 2026 note "Past the Peak", while arguing rates are unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels.
- The booked average has slipped. The company disclosed about $180,000 a day on about 37% of fourth-quarter days on 16 October 2026, and above $172,000 on more than half on 5 November 2026. The later days were therefore fixed at lower rates than the early ones.
- Washington is targeting tanker supply. Reuters reported on 14 October 2026 that the US is weighing sanctions relief for some shadow-fleet tankers to lower freight rates. Benzinga reported on 17 October 2026 that DHT, Frontline and International Seaways fell on the news.
- A large holder keeps selling. SEC Form 4 filings show Famatown Finance Ltd, a 10% owner, sold 1,106,190 shares at an average $97.01 from 30 April to 8 October 2026 and a further 203,738 shares at an average $122.76 from 9 October to 14 October 2026. A prospectus for 1.624 million shares offered by selling shareholders was filed on 5 November 2026, per Benzinga.
- Bruton ships miss the top spot rates. The first two VLCCs carry charters at $95,000 a day through April 2027 and $107,000 a day for 12 months, per the release. Remaining newbuild installments total $279 million, with sale-leaseback financing of up to 90% of construction price.
Price setup
The shares closed at $98.02 on 6 November 2026, $96.45 on 9 November 2026, $98.25 on 10 November 2026 and $101.27 on 11 November 2026. The low of that run was $94.47 on 5 November 2026. The 52-week high of $126.27 was set intraday on 14 October 2026.
The 50-day average of adjusted closes is $108.2, above the last close. The 200-day average is $82.3, well below it. The 3-month change in adjusted closes is 11.8%, measured against the $95.15 close of 13 August 2026 (quoted).
Insider activity is light. SVP and CFO Jeffrey Pribor exercised options on 26,713 shares at $21.58 on 6 November 2026, with 16,501 shares withheld for tax at $98.02, per SEC Form 4. CEO Lois Zabrocky sold 2,000 shares at $114.23 on 15 October 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan, per Form 4.
Catalysts ahead
- 23 December 2026: Payment of the $5.05 per share dividend, with a 9 December 2026 record date. Delivers the third-quarter payout and shows the 85%-of-adjusted-net-income practice holding for another quarter.
- ~25 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 report and dividend declaration, with the date estimated from prior-year timing. Shows how much of the fourth-quarter bookings above $172,000 a day reaches shareholders and how the first quarter of 2027 is booking.
What would change the view
A daily close above $125.04, the highest close of the last 63 sessions (13 October 2026), which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again and prove this call wrong.
What it trades with
The shares trade with crude tanker peers on the same news. Benzinga reported on 17 October 2026 that DHT, Frontline and International Seaways fell together on the shadow-fleet sanctions report. VLCC spot rates, attacks on Middle East shipping and US sanctions policy drive the group more than the broad market does. A Gulf de-escalation would likely hit rates and all these names at once, and renewed attacks would likely lift them together; a sector-wide move on either headline without a matching move in these shares would show the link weakening.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 net income was $344.2 million, or $6.90 per diluted share; adjusted net income was $291.4 million, or $5.84 per diluted share; adjusted EBITDA was $344.5 million. International Seaways Q3 2026 earnings release · as of
- More than half of expected fourth-quarter revenue days were fixed at blended spot earnings above $172,000 a day. International Seaways Q3 2026 earnings call · as of
- The board declared a $5.05 per share dividend, with a 9 December 2026 record date and 23 December 2026 payment date; dividends declared over twelve months total $16.80 a share. International Seaways Q3 2026 earnings release · as of
- Total liquidity was about $964 million at 30 September 2026, and net loan-to-value was under 6%. International Seaways Q3 2026 earnings release · as of
- Bruton Limited completed its merger with International Seaways, effective 2 November 2026. Company news via fiscal.ai · as of
- Famatown Finance Ltd (10% owner) sold 203,738 shares at an average $122.76 between 9 October 2026 and 14 October 2026. SEC Form 4 filed 28 October 2026 · as of
- The Gulf of Oman-to-China VLCC rate fell to about 776 on the Worldscale freight index from 841 a week earlier, per Baltic Exchange figures. Pipexch, 'Supertanker Rates Fall from Record Highs' · as of
- A prospectus was filed for 1.624 million common shares offered on behalf of selling shareholders. Benzinga · as of
Sources
- International Seaways Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results · financialcontent.com ·
- Intl Seaways (INSW) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript · fool.com ·
- Crude Freight: Past the Peak, But the Floor Should Hold · breakwaveadvisors.com ·
- Supertanker Rates Fall from Record Highs · pipexch.com
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