TITN · Titan Machinery
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $26.69
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
15.4% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $26.69, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 24.6% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $26.69, which would put the shares back near the September high and show them leading the S&P 500. A raised fiscal 2027 adjusted EBITDA outlook above the $17 million–$29 million range would also show the shares leading.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Consumer Discretionary
Quarter to 31 July 2026, filed 3 September 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 496
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −9.2
- Gross margin (%)
- 18.6
- Operating margin (%)
- −0.5
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −144
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 0.3
All filed numbers
What Titan Machinery reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 496 | −9.2 | 18.6 | −0.5 |
| first filed | 522 | −12.1 | 17.1 | −1.1 |
| first filed | 642 | −15.5 | 13.5 | −1.9 |
| first filed | 645 | −5.2 | 17.2 | 1.6 |
| first filed | 546 | −13.8 | 17.1 | 0.1 |
| first filed | 594 | −5.5 | 15.3 | −1.0 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −9.2 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −56.7 | −9.2 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 31 July 2025 | +0.9 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 62.5 |
| Capital spending ($M) | Not reported |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 29.5 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 173 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −144 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) −7.3% on a year | 38.7 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 113 |
| Inventory ($M) | 932 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 558 |
| Market value ($M) | 531 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 675 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 0.3 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.0 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not available |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 5.3% of shares outstanding sold short, 5.8 days of average trading to cover, +14.4% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $0 |
The thesis
Titan Machinery is a farm, construction and Australian equipment dealer, and its shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months than lead it. The shares have already gained 26.9% over three months, and the business has not yet confirmed the recovery that rise assumes. The fiscal third-quarter report on 24 November 2026 settles it: total inventory must come in below the $931.5 million reported at 31 July 2026, and the fiscal 2027 adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) range of $17 million–$29 million must hold or rise.
Titan confirmed the report date in its 10 November 2026 announcement. The quarter ended 31 October 2026. Titan has issued no results since the fiscal second-quarter report on 27 August 2026.
The first outside read came on 9 November 2026, when CNH Industrial, the maker of the Case IH and New Holland equipment Titan sells, reported third-quarter 2026 results. Titan's shares rose from a $22.14 close on 6 November 2026 to $24.12 on 9 November 2026. CNH's agriculture net sales were $2,907 million, down 2% from a year earlier, and its adjusted EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) margin rose to 6.0% from 4.6%, according to its 8-K. CNH attributed the margin gain to tariff refunds and lower quality costs. It now guides full-year agriculture adjusted EBIT margin to 5.1%–5.4%, narrowed from 5.0%–5.5%.
Bullish and bearish views on Titan Machinery Inc.
The bull case on Titan Machinery Inc. (TITN), in brief: inventory financing costs have fallen sharply. The bear case: total inventory was still rising.
Bull case
- Inventory financing costs have fallen sharply. Titan's 27 August 2026 release reported second-quarter floorplan interest expense of $3.7 million, down from $6.8 million a year earlier. Floorplan interest is the cost of financing equipment on dealer lots.
- Used equipment is clearing. Used-equipment inventory fell $40 million between 31 January 2026 and 31 July 2026, per the same release. Baird upgraded the shares to Outperform from Neutral on 31 August 2026 and raised its target to $29 from $20, citing equipment inventory down roughly $600 million from the fiscal 2025 second-quarter peak.
- The manufacturer says the trough is near its end. CNH's 9 November 2026 8-K says the agriculture industry is nearing the end of its cyclical trough and cites improving North American cycle indicators. CNH also said it is reducing channel inventory in partnership with dealers.
- Two segments raised their outlook. On 27 August 2026 Titan lifted its fiscal 2027 Construction revenue guide to growth of 5% to 10% and its Australia guide to growth of 15% to 20%.
- Revenue beat expectations. Second-quarter revenue was $496.4 million against a $483.8 million consensus, per the 27 August 2026 release and Benzinga, although it fell 9.2% from $546.4 million a year earlier.
Bear case
- Total inventory was still rising. Titan reported $931.5 million of inventory at 31 July 2026, up $28.4 million from 31 January 2026. New-equipment stock offset the used-equipment reduction.
- Losses are widening. The second-quarter diluted loss was $(0.40) per share against $(0.26) a year earlier and a $(0.36) consensus. Adjusted EBITDA fell to $4.6 million from $5.6 million.
- Full-year guidance still points to a loss. On 27 August 2026 Titan reaffirmed fiscal 2027 adjusted EBITDA of $17 million–$29 million and an adjusted diluted loss of $(1.25)–$(1.75) per share. It raised neither range.
- North American demand is still falling. CNH's 9 November 2026 8-K reported third-quarter industry sales of tractors under 140 horsepower down 12% and combines down 13%. CNH gave no formal 2027 guidance and called the 2027 outlook uncertain.
- Europe is deteriorating. Titan's 27 August 2026 release cut the Europe revenue guide to a decline of 30% to 40%.
- Thin cash against heavy floorplan debt. Cash was $29.5 million and floorplan payable was $623.6 million at 31 July 2026.
- Analyst targets cluster near the price. B. Riley rated the shares Hold with a $22 target on 28 August 2026, below the 12 November 2026 close.
Price setup
The shares closed at $23.38 on 12 November 2026. They closed at $24.26 on 11 November 2026, $23.73 on 10 November 2026 and $24.12 on 9 November 2026. The 52-week intraday high is $26.90, set on 4 September 2026, and the last close is 13.1% below it. The 52-week closing low is $14.14, set on 19 March 2026.
The 50-day average of adjusted closes is $23.55, just above the last close. The 200-day average is $20.33, and the shares remain above it. The 3-month reference close was $18.42 on 14 August 2026.
Trading is thin. MarketBeat reported average daily volume near 197,000 shares in October 2026, and on 7 October 2026 the shares fell 8.3% intraday from a $25.20 close with no company news, per a MarketBeat alert. The 24 November 2026 report falls in a stretch where single sessions have moved 7% to 8% without news.
Catalysts ahead
- 24 November 2026: Titan Machinery fiscal third-quarter 2027 results and 7:30 a.m. Central call. Shows whether total inventory at 31 October 2026 is below the $931.5 million reported at 31 July 2026 and whether the $17 million–$29 million adjusted EBITDA range holds or rises.
What would change the view
A daily close above $26.69, which would put the shares back near the September high and show them leading the S&P 500. A raised fiscal 2027 adjusted EBITDA outlook above the $17 million–$29 million range would also show the shares leading.
What it trades with
Titan sells mainly CNH's Case IH and New Holland brands, so its supply and pricing track one manufacturer, and CNH's 9 November 2026 results are the nearest read-through. Farm income, crop prices and European farm demand drive both companies. CNH also announced on 9 November 2026 a plan to set up its construction business as a joint venture with Kobelco, per press coverage of its results; Titan's Construction segment depends on that supply. Titan's Construction and Australia segments give it some revenue less tied to North American crop equipment.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Second-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue was $496.4 million against $546.4 million a year earlier (down 9.2%), beating the $483.8 million consensus; same-store sales fell 6.2%. Titan Machinery fiscal 2027 second-quarter results release; Benzinga consensus · as of
- Second-quarter diluted loss per share was $(0.40) against $(0.26) a year earlier and a $(0.36) consensus; adjusted EBITDA was $4.6 million against $5.6 million. Titan Machinery fiscal 2027 second-quarter results release · as of
- Inventory was $931.5 million at 31 July 2026, up $28.4 million from 31 January 2026; used-equipment inventory fell $40 million; cash was $29.5 million and floorplan payable $623.6 million. Titan Machinery fiscal 2027 second-quarter results release (balance sheet) · as of
- Fiscal 2027 guidance reaffirmed at adjusted EBITDA of $17 million–$29 million and adjusted diluted loss per share of $(1.25)–$(1.75); Europe guide cut to a 30% to 40% decline, Construction raised to growth of 5% to 10%, Australia to growth of 15% to 20%. Titan Machinery fiscal 2027 second-quarter results release · as of
- Baird upgraded Titan to Outperform from Neutral and raised its price target to $29 from $20. Baird note via Investing.com / StreetInsider · as of
- CNH third-quarter 2026 agriculture net sales were $2,907 million, down 2%; adjusted EBIT margin 6.0% against 4.6%; full-year agriculture adjusted EBIT margin guide narrowed to 5.1%–5.4%. CNH Industrial 8-K, third-quarter 2026 results · as of
- CNH third-quarter 2026 North American industry sales: tractors under 140 horsepower down 12%, tractors over 140 horsepower down 5%, combines down 13%; CNH gave no formal 2027 guidance. CNH Industrial 8-K, third-quarter 2026 results · as of
- Titan announced the date of its fiscal third-quarter 2027 earnings release for 24 November 2026, with a call at 7:30 a.m. Central. Titan Machinery announcement via Stock Titan · as of
Sources
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