TEM · Tempus AI

The thesis

Tempus AI shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. Third-quarter results confirmed the growth path without changing it, and the shares rose 46.3% in the three months to 11 November 2026 before the report. The Personalis shareholder vote on 30 November 2026 and preliminary full-year results, expected around 11 January 2027, are the next tests.

Tempus reported third-quarter revenue of $411.5 million on 2 November 2026, up 23% year over year. Zacks put the revenue consensus at $411.3 million, so the top line matched forecasts. The company raised its 2026 revenue guide to $1.60–1.605 billion, which lifted only the low end from $1.595 billion, and held its adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) forecast at about $65 million.

The rating is Low because the report confirmed expectations rather than reset them. The shares closed at $79.43 on 11 November 2026, inside most of the post-report analyst targets. Swings of several dollars a day since the report point to a crowded shareholder base, not a settled price.

Bullish and bearish views on Tempus AI, Inc.

The bull case on Tempus AI, Inc. (TEM), in brief: data licensing is the fastest-growing segment. The bear case: the guide raise was small.

Bull case

• Data licensing is the fastest-growing segment. Data and Applications revenue rose 33% to $108.1 million in the third quarter, against 20% growth in Diagnostics, according to the company's 2 November 2026 results release.
• Profitability turned decisively positive. Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA was $25.6 million against $1.5 million a year earlier, and the net loss narrowed to $14.9 million from $80.0 million (2 November 2026 release).
• Cancer-test volume keeps compounding. Oncology testing volume grew 32% in the third quarter, and Diagnostics revenue reached $303.5 million (2 November 2026 release).
• Analysts lifted targets after the report. On 3 November 2026 BTIG raised its target to $100 (Buy), Baird and Cantor Fitzgerald to $92, H.C. Wainwright to $85 (Buy) and Freedom Capital Markets to $89 (Hold), per Benzinga analyst-action reports.
• Pharma contracts keep arriving. Bristol Myers Squibb signed a data license running through 2031 on 23 October 2026, Pathos AI signed a five-year, $55 million license the same day, and Tempus expanded its Remix Therapeutics collaboration on 8 November 2026.
• Reimbursement could lift test pricing. Morgan Stanley estimated on 17 September 2026 that clarified pricing could add $330–400 million of annual revenue across the xT and xF cancer tests.

Bear case

• The guide raise was small. The 2026 revenue range moved to $1.60–1.605 billion on 2 November 2026 from $1.595–1.605 billion, leaving the top unchanged, and the roughly $65 million adjusted EBITDA forecast was held.
• The chief executive keeps selling. SEC Form 4 filings show Eric Lefkofsky sold 200,000 shares at an average $80.57 on 17 September 2026, 250,000 at $77.47 on 22 September 2026 and 250,000 at $70.36 on 27 October 2026, all under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan.
• Not every analyst sees upside. Jefferies upgraded the shares to Hold with a $70 target on 3 November 2026, below the 11 November 2026 close of $79.43.
• Personalis brings early losses. The company said on 2 November 2026 that the Personalis acquisition will initially add losses, and the deal is paid largely in Tempus stock at a fixed $16.25 of value per Personalis share above a Tempus price of $48.42.
• Reimbursement has not shown up yet. The third-quarter release of 2 November 2026 gave no figure for xT or xF price gains, so the Morgan Stanley estimate remains unconfirmed.

Price setup

The shares closed at $79.43 on 11 November 2026, 10.8% below the 52-week intraday high of $89.09 set on 29 September 2026. The last close sits above the 50-day moving average of $72.42 and the 200-day moving average of $57.35. The 52-week closing low is $41.55 on 29 July 2026, and the close three months earlier was $54.29 on 13 August 2026.

Since the report the shares have closed between $70.43 on 5 November 2026 and $84.44 on 9 November 2026. The 9 November 2026 close followed $76.05 on 6 November 2026; company news that day carried a partnership with the SOTERIA Precision Medicine Foundation and a Benzinga list of large-cap gainers, with no other cause named. The 50-day average near $72 and the September high near $89 bound the price range the case turns on.

What the price reflects: at $79.43 on 11 November 2026 the shares trade below the $85–100 targets set by four firms on 3 November 2026 but above Jefferies' $70, after a quarter in which revenue matched the $411.3 million consensus.

Catalysts ahead

• 30 November 2026: Personalis special meeting of stockholders votes on the Tempus merger. Approval clears the last step before closing after regulatory review; it also sets when Tempus issues shares and whether it uses its cash election, which governs dilution.
• ~11 January 2027 (est.): Preliminary fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results, released around the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference as in January 2026. Shows whether 2026 revenue lands above the $1.605 billion top of the guide and gives the first 2027 outlook, including any reimbursement and Personalis effects.

What would change the view

A daily close above $93.73, over the $89.09 intraday 52-week high of 29 September 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; preliminary full-year 2026 revenue above the $1.605 billion top of the guide would also prove the call wrong.

What it trades with

Tempus trades with high-growth, recently profitable healthcare and AI-data companies, and its daily moves run well beyond the broad market's. Pharma data-licensing announcements, such as the Bristol Myers Squibb agreement of 23 October 2026, have moved the shares more than the index. Above a Tempus price of $48.42, Personalis holders receive a fixed $16.25 of value per share, so a rising Tempus price reduces the number of shares Tempus issues to close the deal.