XXI · Twenty One Capital
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $6.88
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
28.1% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $6.88, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are unchanged since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $6.88, the highest close of the last 63 sessions (22 September 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500. So would a binding acquisition of a cash-generating business disclosed with the third-quarter results.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Last catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Financials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 13 November 2026
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −382
All filed numbers
What Twenty One Capital reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Pre-tax income ($M) quarter to 30 June 2026, filed 11 August 2026 | −414 |
| Net income ($M) | 1,087 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +66774.5 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −15.2 |
| Capital spending ($M) | Not reported |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 103 |
| Debt ($M) convertible debt | 485 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −382 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | Not reported |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 3,264 |
| Market value ($M) | 1,890 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 2,272 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not available |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not available |
| Price to book value (×) | 0.6 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not available |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 2.0% of shares outstanding sold short, 5.4 days of average trading to cover, +10.9% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $0 |
The thesis
Twenty One Capital, a bitcoin treasury company controlled by Tether, still has no signed acquisition of a cash-generating business, so its shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it. The company's first earnings call, set for 13 November 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET, and the quarterly filing that follows will show whether a deal, cash and the diluted share count change that.
The rating is Low because the operating-business plan is still a proposal. The 11 August 2026 shareholder letter proposed buying operating businesses and building a bitcoin-backed lending arm. A search of company news through 12 November 2026 found no binding agreement since. The Block reported on 21 July 2026 that Strike had left the planned three-way merger. That left only a possible Elektron Energy combination, which the company called preliminary.
The price shows a market that doubts the plan. The shares closed at $5.26 on 11 November 2026, 70.3% below the 52-week intraday high of $17.69 set on 4 December 2025. BitcoinTreasuries.net valued the equity at 0.60x its bitcoin on basic shares and 1.12x on diluted shares on 7 September 2026.
Bullish and bearish views on Twenty One Capital, Inc.
The bull case on Twenty One Capital, Inc. (XXI), in brief: a large bitcoin treasury remains. The bear case: no operating business is signed.
Bull case
- A large bitcoin treasury remains. The company held 43,514 bitcoin and $2.55 billion of digital assets at 30 June 2026, according to its quarterly report filed 11 August 2026. On basic shares, the equity traded at 0.60x the value of that bitcoin on 7 September 2026, per BitcoinTreasuries.net.
- A dated test is days away. The company announced on 5 November 2026 that CEO Raphael Zagury and CFO Steve Meehan will host its first earnings call on 13 November 2026. A signed deal or a lending revenue figure disclosed there would turn the plan into a result.
- Tether controls the register. Tether acquired SoftBank's 89,106,748 Class A shares on 19 May 2026. A controlling holder with bitcoin-linked businesses is a possible source of deals and capital.
- The summer low has held. The 11 November 2026 close of $5.26 is above the 52-week closing low of $4.27 from 31 July 2026. The shares are up 5.2% from the $5.00 close of 13 August 2026.
Bear case
- No operating business is signed. The Strike combination ended with the 21 July 2026 leadership change. A possible Elektron Energy deal involves a company founded and led by CEO Raphael Zagury, so it would be a related-person transaction.
- The discount depends on the share count. BitcoinTreasuries.net showed 1.12x on diluted shares on 7 September 2026. On that count the equity traded above the value of its bitcoin.
- Losses and liabilities are large. The quarterly report filed 11 August 2026 showed a $1.27 billion net loss for the six months to 30 June 2026, mostly from bitcoin's fall in value. It also showed $106.1 million in cash against $484.5 million in convertible notes.
- Resale registration adds supply. A Form S-1 filed 9 February 2026 registered resale of $486.5 million of 1.00% convertible notes due 2030 and 35,068,912 underlying Class A shares.
- Insiders have not bought. The two most recent SEC Form 4 filings record shares withheld for tax from CFO Steven Meehan (4,394 shares at $6.77 on 2 October 2026) and a stock award to director David Goldschmidt (15,205 shares at $6.00 on 8 September 2026). Neither is an open-market purchase.
Price setup
The shares closed at $5.26 on 11 November 2026. That is below the 50-day moving average of $5.96 and the 200-day moving average of $6.27, both as of the same close. The heaviest recent drop came on 5 November 2026, when the close fell to $5.34 from $5.83 the session before.
The 52-week intraday high is $17.69, set on 4 December 2025. The 52-week closing low is $4.27, set on 31 July 2026. The three-month change is 5.2%, measured from the $5.00 close on 13 August 2026.
The price levels that matter are the two moving averages overhead and the July closing low below. A move back above the 200-day average would show buyers pricing in progress on the plan. A close under the July low would show the market marking down the bitcoin holdings or the deal outlook further.
Catalysts ahead
- ~16 November 2026 (est.): Quarterly report (10-Q) for the period ended 30 September 2026. The filing gives cash, convertible notes, diluted share count and bitcoin holdings at 30 September 2026, which set the discount or premium to bitcoin value.
Elapsed catalysts
- 13 November 2026: Third-quarter results and first earnings call, 8:30 a.m. ET. Management's first call shows whether any acquisition or lending business has been signed, and what bitcoin's fall did to third-quarter results. (passed)
What would change the view
A daily close above $6.88, the highest close of the last 63 sessions (22 September 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500. So would a binding acquisition of a cash-generating business disclosed with the third-quarter results.
What it trades with
The shares trade mainly with the price of bitcoin, because the company's 43,514 bitcoin (quarterly report, 30 June 2026) are its main asset. Reported results follow that price directly: the $1.27 billion six-month loss to 30 June 2026 came mostly from a fair-value drop in the holdings. Tether's control, the convertible notes and the pending Elektron question add company-specific drivers that bitcoin alone does not explain.
The evidence, claim by claim (6)
- The company held 43,514 bitcoin, $106.1 million in cash and $484.5 million in convertible notes at 30 June 2026. Quarterly report (10-Q) filed 11 August 2026 · as of
- Net loss for the six months to 30 June 2026 was $1.27 billion, mostly from a fair-value drop in bitcoin holdings. Quarterly report (10-Q) filed 11 August 2026 · as of
- BitcoinTreasuries.net valued the equity at 0.60x its bitcoin on basic shares and 1.12x on diluted shares. BitcoinTreasuries.net company-page snapshot · as of
- Strike left the three-way merger with Twenty One and Elektron Energy, and Jack Mallers stepped down as CEO. The Block, 21 July 2026 · as of
- The company announced its first earnings call for 13 November 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET, led by CEO Raphael Zagury and CFO Steve Meehan. Company announcement reported 5 November 2026 · as of
- CFO Steven Meehan had 4,394 shares withheld for tax at $6.77; no open-market insider purchase appears in recent filings. SEC Form 4 filed 2 October 2026 · as of
Sources
- Twenty One Capital plans first earnings call for third-quarter results · rallies.ai ·
- Twenty One Capital (XXI) hit by $1.27B loss on Bitcoin revaluation · stocktitan.net
- Jack Mallers leaves Twenty One as Strike exits Tether's three-way bitcoin merger · theblock.co ·
- Tether acquires SoftBank's stake in Twenty One Capital as share price jumps 5% · theblock.co
- Business Wire ·
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