VG · Venture Global

The thesis

Venture Global's shares have a modest edge over the S&P 500 for the next three months. The reason is that on 10 November 2026 the company raised its 2026 profit guidance and gave a higher cargo outlook for 2027, while the shares still trade 28.1% below their 52-week high. Three things settle it: new 20-year contracts by year-end, the first power-plant order for its AI data-center plan, and CP2 holding its July 2027 start.

The company's third-quarter 8-K raised 2026 adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) guidance to $10.0–10.3 billion, from $8.7–9.1 billion in August. On the 10 November 2026 earnings call, management guided 575–625 cargoes for 2027, against 509–518 for 2026. It also said cumulative EBITDA for 2027 through 2029 should exceed $30 billion, depending on price assumptions.

The market is pricing 2026 as a peak year for earnings. The shares closed at $12.66 on 11 November 2026, two sessions after the raise and below both their 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Trefis put debt at 132.7% of market value at the 2 November 2026 close, and that leverage is the main weight on the shares.

The rating is Medium. The guidance raise and Citigroup's higher target are newer than the 13.0% one-day fall of 2 November 2026, and the sell-off has not yet priced them in. Two things would weaken the view: a 2027 EBITDA guide below the 2026 range, or an AI power order placed without a signed customer.

Bullish and bearish views on Venture Global, Inc.

The bull case on Venture Global, Inc. (VG), in brief: third-quarter earnings set a record. The bear case: the 2026 raise depends on commissioning-period prices.

Bull case

• Third-quarter earnings set a record. Adjusted EBITDA was $2,583 million, against $1,525 million a year earlier. Revenue was $4,756 million, up 43%, on 124 cargoes (8-K, 10 November 2026). Earnings per share of $0.96 beat the $0.51 estimate, per company news on 10 November 2026.
• The 2026 guide rose sharply. Adjusted EBITDA guidance is now $10.0–10.3 billion, from $8.7–9.1 billion. The low end of the cargo range rose to 509, from 500. 99% of 2026 cargoes are contracted, at a weighted average fee of $6.46 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) (8-K, 10 November 2026).
• Volumes grow again in 2027. Management guided 575–625 cargoes for 2027, including 10–20 from CP2, whose first LNG is targeted for July 2027 (earnings call, 10 November 2026). Plaquemines Phase 1 began commercial operations on 31 October 2026, and six cargoes had loaded for long-term customers by 10 November 2026.
• Long-term contracting continues. The third quarter added 20-year agreements with ConocoPhillips (1.0 million tonnes a year) and China Gas (0.5 million tonnes a year), plus a 0.5 million-tonne increase from an existing customer (8-K, 10 November 2026). Chief executive Mike Sabel said on 10 November 2026 that he expects more long-term contracts to be signed before the end of 2026.
• Analyst targets moved up after the report. Company news on 11 November 2026 reported that Citigroup raised its target to $20 from $17 and that Deutsche Bank also raised its target. Wells Fargo's target is $21 (Overweight, 20 October 2026).
• Supply losses elsewhere favour US exporters. QatarEnergy's chief executive said on 29 October 2026 that two trains damaged in Iranian attacks will take about three years to repair, according to Benzinga headlines. The Wall Street Journal reported that Poland's Orlen cancelled a Qatar LNG supply deal after months of force majeure, per company news on 11 November 2026.

Bear case

• The 2026 raise depends on commissioning-period prices. The guide assumes a market liquefaction fee of $21–22/MMBtu on the remaining unsold 2026 cargoes. Contracted cargoes earn a weighted average of $6.46 (8-K, 10 November 2026). With Plaquemines Phase 1 now on long-term contracts, per-cargo earnings fall. Management has not given 2027 EBITDA guidance.
• Debt is heavy. At 30 September 2026 the company held $42,918 million of long-term debt and $1,694 million of current debt, against $3,420 million of cash (8-K, 10 November 2026). On 10 November 2026 the company also disclosed a new $3.0 billion 364-day revolving credit facility at its VGLNG subsidiary to fund the CP2 and Plaquemines expansions.
• The AI power plan adds capital needs with no customer yet. On 11 November 2026 the company announced a strategic shift to become an integrated AI utility provider, per company news. The plan builds on frame agreements for up to sixteen 720-megawatt power islands and targets about 5 gigawatts by the end of 2031. No hyperscaler contract has been signed (earnings call, 10 November 2026).
• Reported profit includes a non-cash gain. Third-quarter net income included a $1.4 billion non-cash gain on interest-rate swaps (Investing.com call transcript, 10 November 2026).
• Insiders keep selling under trading plans. SEC Form 4 filings show the chief financial officer sold 222,222 shares at an average of $12.69 on 19 October to 20 October 2026, after exercising options at $1.16. The general counsel sold 784,657 shares at an average of $12.90 on 14 October to 15 October 2026. Both sales were made under Rule 10b5-1 plans.
• Bernstein still sees limited upside. Bernstein kept its Market Perform rating and $14 target on 10 November 2026, after the report.

Price setup

The shares closed at $12.66 on 11 November 2026, up from $11.80 on 9 November 2026 and $12.00 on 10 November 2026. The low of the sell-off that followed Plaquemines reaching commercial service was the $11.52 close of 5 November 2026. The response to the guidance raise has been small so far.

The last close is below the 50-day moving average of $13.48 and just under the 200-day moving average of $12.79 (adjusted daily closes, 11 November 2026). Over three months the shares are down 6.2%, from a $13.54 close on 13 August 2026. A close back above the 50-day average would show the market starting to price in the raised guidance. Closes that stay under $12.00 would show the reverse.

The 52-week high is $17.62, set on 24 March 2026, and the last close is 28.1% below it. The 52-week closing low is $5.92, on 16 December 2025.

Catalysts ahead

• 15 December 2026: Record date for the $0.04 quarterly dividend, payable 31 December 2026. This is a routine capital return. It shows the payout holding at the level raised in August while the expansion and AI power programmes absorb capital.
• ~31 December 2026 (est.): Targeted first power-island purchase order and more long-term LNG contracts. Management expects both by year-end. New 20-year contracts support the 2027–2029 EBITDA outlook. A power order placed without a signed hyperscaler would raise capital needs before there is revenue to match.
• ~8 January 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 LNG sales and cargo update. Shows whether 2026 cargoes land inside the 509–518 range that supports the $10.0–10.3 billion EBITDA guide.
• ~March 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 results and first 2027 EBITDA guidance. Settles whether 2027 earnings hold near 2026 as commissioning-period sales give way to contract fees, and whether CP2 stays on its July 2027 first-LNG date.

What would change the view

A daily close below $11.50, under the $11.52 close of 5 November 2026 that marked the post-Plaquemines low, would show the guidance raise failing to support the shares. A CP2 first-LNG date moved past July 2027 would also prove the call wrong.

The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:

• 2027 earnings fall as Plaquemines Phase 1 moves from high-priced commissioning sales to contract fees. Confirmed by: a 2027 adjusted EBITDA guide below the 2026 range of $10.0–10.3 billion at the fourth-quarter report.
• The AI power plan raises capital needs on an already heavy balance sheet before any customer signs. Confirmed by: a power-island purchase order with no signed hyperscaler lease, an equity raise, or further increases in borrowing beyond the $3.0 billion revolver.
• CP2 or the expansion projects slip, delaying 2027 volume growth. Confirmed by: a CP2 first-LNG date moved beyond July 2027, or the CP2 or Plaquemines expansion final investment decisions slipping past their targeted dates in 2027.
• Softer global LNG prices cut earnings on uncontracted 2027 volumes. Confirmed by: an agreement restoring Russian gas flows to Europe via Ukraine, or management lowering its market-fee assumption below $21/MMBtu.
• Arbitration losses widen beyond the capped Galp case. Confirmed by: an adverse award in the BP case, where damages above $1 billion are sought.
• Continued insider selling weighs on the shares. Confirmed by: further SEC Form 4 sales by senior officers at or below current prices through December 2026.

What it trades with

The shares trade with LNG peers and energy prices, and move more than they do. On 2 November 2026 the 13.0% fall compared with 5.6% for Cheniere, 9.8% for NextDecade, 4.0% for the energy sector and 0.5% for the S&P 500 (Trefis, 3 November 2026).

Supply news from the Middle East and Europe bears directly on the shares. That includes Qatar's damaged trains, the Orlen cancellation and the US push, reported by the Wall Street Journal on 1 November 2026, to restore Russian gas sales to Europe via Ukraine.

A second link is forming. The 5.5% rise on 11 November 2026 (adjusted daily closes) came on the session of the AI utility announcement and Citigroup's higher target. From here, sentiment toward AI data-center power stocks may move the shares as well as gas prices. That link has no revenue behind it until a power customer signs.