RELY · Remitly Global
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a daily close below $21.77
Note written ·
How this view changed
- · Rating raised from Low to Medium. Results, 4 November 2026: Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $120.8M beat the $92–94M guide, revenue of $509.8M beat the $505–507M guide, and full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance rose to $441–443M from $410–415M.
Price against the kill line
3.6% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close below $21.77, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 14.3% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close below $21.77, the 2 October 2026 close, which would erase the October rebound and return the shares to the September low area. A cut to the $441–443M full-year adjusted EBITDA guide or Q4 revenue below the $531–533M guide would also end the case.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Industrials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 4 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 510
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +21.5
- Operating margin (%)
- 13.6
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 666
- Price to earnings (×)
- 13.3
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 2.2
- Enterprise value to operating income (×)
- 18.2
All filed numbers
What Remitly Global reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 510 | +21.5 | 13.6 |
| first filed | 495 | +20.2 | 13.5 |
| first filed | 453 | +25.2 | 11.9 |
| first filed | 442 | +25.7 | 8.8 |
| first filed | 420 | +24.7 | 2.8 |
| first filed | 412 | +34.4 | 3.6 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 69.8 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 364 | 67.6 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +2.9 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Capital spending ($M) | 14.9 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 669 |
| Debt ($M) non-current long-term debt plus short-term borrowings | 2.9 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 666 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | Not reported |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 1,226 |
| Market value ($M) | 4,826 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 4,160 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 2.2 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 18.2 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 13.3 |
| Price to book value (×) | 3.9 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not available |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 9.5% of shares outstanding sold short, 7.3 days of average trading to cover, +1.6% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $2.8M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $234.5M |
The thesis
Remitly Global's profit is running well ahead of its own guidance, and the 4 November 2026 Q3 report moves the case from "lagging likely" to "modestly better than even" against the S&P 500. Q3 adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) was $120.8 million against a guide of $92–94 million, and the full-year adjusted EBITDA guide rose to $441–443 million. The next quarterly report settles whether margins hold near this level, because the Q4 adjusted EBITDA guide of $104–106 million is below Q3.
The close on 10 November 2026 was $23.48, 13.3% below the 52-week high of $27.08, with the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) at 42.8. The shares fell more than 10% after hours on 4 November 2026 despite the beat (247WallSt), so the market is not paying for the profit upside yet. The story is well known: the quarter was well covered, analysts reiterated ratings on 9 November 2026 and 10 November 2026, and buying interest has not followed the numbers since the 4 November 2026 report.
The view is wrong if the shares close below $21.77, or if Q4 revenue falls short of the $531–533 million guide.
Bullish and bearish views on Remitly Global, Inc.
The bull case on Remitly Global, Inc. (RELY), in brief: profit beat was large. The bear case: Q4 profit guide is below Q3.
Bull case
- Profit beat was large. Q3 adjusted EBITDA rose 97% to $120.8 million from $61.2 million, against Remitly's own $92–94 million guide (8-K, 4 November 2026). Operating income was $69.4 million versus $11.8 million a year earlier (247WallSt, 4 November 2026).
- Guidance rose again. Full-year revenue guidance moved to $1.989–1.991 billion from $1.978–1.988 billion, and full-year adjusted EBITDA to $441–443 million from $410–415 million (company release, 4 November 2026).
- Revenue cleared consensus. Q3 revenue was $509.8 million (+22%), against a $507.3 million analyst estimate (company news, 4 November 2026). It also beat the $505–507 million guide.
- Unit economics improved. Transaction margin was 68% against 65% a year earlier (8-K, 4 November 2026). Marketing spend rose to $104.0 million from $91.8 million while profit grew faster.
- Buyback tripled. The board raised the repurchase authorization to $500 million from $200 million; Remitly paid $80.0 million for repurchases in the first nine months of 2026, and cash was $669.1 million at 30 September 2026 (8-K, 4 November 2026).
- Analysts stayed constructive. Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated Overweight with a $30 target on 9 November 2026, and KeyBanc maintained Buy and adjusted its target on 10 November 2026 (company news; the new KeyBanc figure is not stated in the headline).
Bear case
- Q4 profit guide is below Q3. Q4 adjusted EBITDA is guided to $104–106 million, under the $120.8 million just reported (company release, 4 November 2026). Q4 revenue guidance of $531–533 million sits against a $532.3 million analyst estimate, so it is in line.
- Customer and volume growth slowed. Send volume grew 25% to $24.4 billion and active customers 17% to 10.3 million in Q3, against 27% and 20% in Q2 (8-K, 4 November 2026; Q2 release, 5 August 2026).
- Revenue still trails volume. Revenue growth of 22% trails send-volume growth of 25%, the same direction as Q2 (20% versus 27%).
- The shares did not hold the beat. The after-hours drop of more than 10% on 4 November 2026 came with a revenue surprise of about 0.5% (247WallSt). The close on 10 November 2026 was $23.48, below the $24.27 close on 28 October 2026.
- The core corridor was shrinking. Banco de México reported August 2026 remittances to Mexico down 3.6% to about $5.45 billion (Crónica, 1 October 2026); a weaker market makes share gains harder to sustain.
- Insider sales are scheduled supply. Form 4 filings showed CFO Vikas Mehta selling 25,000 shares at $26.15 (26 August 2026) and Chief Business Officer Pankaj Sharma selling 21,000 at $26.39 (28 August 2026); some sales run under Rule 10b5-1 plans.
Price setup
The close on 10 November 2026 was $23.48, 13.3% below the 52-week high of $27.08 in the adjusted daily closes. The three-month price change was −8.4% and the 14-day RSI was 42.8, down from 56.4 on 28 October 2026 and 74.7 on 15 October 2026.
The kill line is the 2 October 2026 close of $21.77, which sits below the October rebound and near the September low area. The shares trade above it by a modest margin.
Crowding evidence is mixed. Twelve of 13 analysts rated the shares Buy per MarketBeat on 2 October 2026, a level of agreement that leaves little room for further upgrades. William Blair removed the shares from its monthly conviction list on 2 November 2026. The earnings date has passed, so no imminent report adds event risk in the next 30 days.
Catalysts ahead
- ~1 December 2026 (est.): Banco de México October 2026 remittance data. Shows whether the 3.6% August decline in remittances to Mexico deepened; it gives corridor context, not Remitly's own volumes.
- Fall 2026 (unconfirmed): Planned availability of Remitly as a payout option on Etsy Payments in 15 countries. Shows whether the 9 September 2026 announcement becomes a working service; no revenue figure has been given.
- Next report (date not announced): Remitly Q4 2026 results. Tests the $531–533M revenue and $104–106M adjusted EBITDA guidance.
What would change the view
A daily close below $21.77, the 2 October 2026 close, which would erase the October rebound and return the shares to the September low area. A cut to the $441–443M full-year adjusted EBITDA guide or Q4 revenue below the $531–533M guide would also end the case.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- Adjusted EBITDA margin falls back as marketing, fraud and chargeback costs rise after a Q3 that beat guidance by a wide margin. Confirmed by: Q4 adjusted EBITDA below the $104–106M guide, or a cut to the $441–443M full-year guide.
- Customer and volume growth keep slowing, with revenue growing slower than send volume. Confirmed by: active-customer growth below the 17% reported for Q3 2026, or send-volume growth below 25%.
- Weakness in the Mexican corridor spreads to Remitly's own volumes. Confirmed by: Banco de México showing further monthly declines after the 3.6% fall in August 2026.
- Immigration enforcement or remittance rules reduce corridor volumes from the US. Confirmed by: slower US-originated send volume or fewer active customers than the 10.3M reported for Q3 2026.
What it trades with
Remitly trades with cross-border payments and consumer fintech names, and its results depend on US immigration policy and on remittance rules in sending and receiving countries. Monthly Banco de México remittance data is the clearest outside read on its largest corridor. No correlation figures are included because none were measured for this note.
The evidence, claim by claim (7)
- Q3 2026 revenue $509.8M (+22% YoY); send volume $24.4B (+25%); active customers 10.3M (+17%); adjusted EBITDA $120.8M (+97%); net income $67.6M versus $8.8M. Remitly Q3 2026 press release (SEC Form 8-K) · as of
- FY2026 guidance raised to revenue $1.989–1.991B and adjusted EBITDA $441–443M; Q4 guided to revenue $531–533M and adjusted EBITDA $104–106M. Remitly Q3 2026 press release (SEC Form 8-K) · as of
- Board raised the share repurchase authorization to $500M from $200M; $80.0M was paid for repurchases in the first nine months of 2026; cash was $669.1M at 30 September 2026. Remitly Q3 2026 press release (SEC Form 8-K) · as of
- Q3 transaction margin 68% versus 65% a year earlier; marketing expense $104.0M versus $91.8M. Remitly Q3 2026 press release (SEC Form 8-K) · as of
- Shares fell more than 10% after hours on the Q3 report despite a revenue beat of about 0.5% against estimates. 247WallSt, 'Remitly Global Q3 2026: Why a Double Beat Still Sent Shares Down 10%' · as of
- Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated Overweight with a $30 price target; KeyBanc maintained Buy and adjusted its target. Company news headlines · as of
- Adjusted close $23.48, 13.3% below the 52-week high of $27.08; 14-day RSI 42.8. Adjusted daily closes · as of
Sources
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