IBKR · Interactive Brokers Group
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $98.10
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
16.6% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $98.10, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 13.2% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $98.10, the late-August closing high of 25 August 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A November client equity figure back above the third quarter's $964.7 billion would also show the shares leading.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Financials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 5 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 690
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +14.4
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 5,917
- Price to earnings (×)
- 7.3
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 11.1
All filed numbers
What Interactive Brokers Group reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) |
|---|---|---|
| first filed | 690 | +14.4 |
| first filed | 760 | +31.5 |
| first filed | 699 | +18.1 |
| first filed | 667 | +19.5 |
| first filed | 603 | +18.9 |
| first filed | 578 | +21.9 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 1,496 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 5,058 | 1,348 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +1.7 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 12,294 |
| Capital spending ($M) | Not reported |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 5,935 |
| Debt ($M) short-term borrowings | 18.0 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 5,917 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | 0.0 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | Not reported |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 6,215 |
| Market value ($M) | 37,126 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 31,209 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 11.1 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not available |
| Price to earnings (×) | 7.3 |
| Price to book value (×) | 6.0 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not available |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 2.9% of shares outstanding sold short, 3.5 days of average trading to cover, −4.8% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $6K | $2.1M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $22K | $34.8M |
The thesis
Interactive Brokers is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. Accounts and margin loans keep growing, but October trading was 4% below a year earlier and client equity fell 4% from September. The November brokerage metrics, due around 1 December 2026, show whether activity and balances recover.
The shares closed at $81.33 on 12 November 2026. That is 17.6% below the 52-week intraday high of $98.75 (25 August 2026), and the three-month change is −11.6%. The close sits below both the 50-day average of $85.33 and the 200-day average of $83.0, which are measured on adjusted closes.
October's metrics, released on 2 November 2026, were mixed. Daily average revenue trades (DARTs) were 4.306 million, 4% below a year earlier and 5% above September's 4.111 million (company release).
Bullish and bearish views on Interactive Brokers Group, Inc.
The bull case on Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (IBKR), in brief: accounts keep growing. The bear case: Trading is still below last year.
Bull case
- Accounts keep growing. Client accounts reached 5.678 million in October, up 34% from a year earlier and 2% from September (company October metrics, 2 November 2026). The third-quarter figure was 5.58 million, up 35% (company 8-K, 15 October 2026).
- Trading activity rebounded in October. DARTs of 4.306 million were 5% above September, after year-over-year declines of 3% in August and 4% in September (company metrics, 1 September 2026, 1 October 2026 and 2 November 2026).
- Margin lending is still expanding. Margin loans were $106.8 billion in October, up 31% from a year earlier and 2% from September (company metrics, 2 November 2026). Third-quarter net interest income was $1.15 billion, up 19% (company 8-K, 15 October 2026).
- Profitability stayed high. Third-quarter pretax margin was 78% against 79% a year earlier, and net revenue was $1.91 billion against $1.66 billion. Diluted earnings per share were $0.69 against $0.59 (company 8-K, 15 October 2026).
- Dividend raised. The quarterly dividend rose from $0.0875 to $0.15 per share, payable 14 December 2026 to holders of record on 1 December 2026 (company 8-K, 15 October 2026).
- Sell-side targets sit above the share price. After the third-quarter report, Barclays kept Overweight with a $117 target and BMO kept Outperform with a $100 target (Benzinga, 16 October 2026).
Bear case
- Trading is still below last year. October DARTs were 4% lower than October 2025's 4.472 million. Third-quarter DARTs had risen 18% from a year earlier (company releases, 2 November 2026 and 15 October 2026).
- Stock volume is weak. Third-quarter stock volume fell 24% from a year earlier and options volume fell 1%. Only futures volume rose, by 13% (company 8-K, 15 October 2026).
- Client equity fell in October. Ending client equity was $928.6 billion, up 19% from a year earlier but 4% below September. Third-quarter client equity had been $964.7 billion, up 27% (company releases, 2 November 2026 and 15 October 2026).
- Growth rates are slowing. Margin loan growth eased from 36% in the third quarter to 31% in October, and client equity growth from 27% to 19% (company releases, 15 October 2026 and 2 November 2026).
- Costs rose. Third-quarter execution, clearing and distribution fees rose 46% to $134 million, mainly on higher regulatory fees (company 8-K, 15 October 2026).
- Insider and analyst actions lean cautious. Director Lawrence Harris sold 25,000 shares at $82.61 on 28 October 2026 (SEC Form 4 filed 29 October 2026). Rothschild & Co Redburn cut its price target to $90 from $92 on 10 November 2026 (news headline).
Price setup
The shares closed at $72.73 on 5 November 2026, then rose to $82.49 on 11 November 2026 and $81.33 on 12 November 2026 (quoted closes). The 10-Q was filed on 5 November 2026. Those sessions recovered ground but left the shares under the 200-day average of $83.0.
The 52-week intraday high of $98.75 on 25 August 2026 is the peak the shares would need to approach for the call to be in doubt. Benzinga reported on 26 October 2026 that the stock had logged its first eight-week losing streak since its 2007 initial public offering.
Director Lori Conkling made a 25-share open-market purchase at $78.44 on 2 November 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan, a pre-arranged trading schedule (SEC Form 4 filed 3 November 2026). She made similar 25-share purchases on 1 September 2026 and 1 October 2026.
Competition is a live issue. Interactive Brokers launched IBKR Autonomous Trading on 21 October 2026, letting eligible clients authorise connected AI to trade across more than 75,000 listed stocks, options and exchange-traded funds (company release). Benzinga reported on 8 September 2026 that BofA sees agentic trading as the durable driver of Robinhood's rally.
Catalysts ahead
- 1 December 2026: Dividend record date for the $0.15 quarterly dividend. Marks the first payment at the raised rate, payable 14 December 2026.
- ~1 December 2026 (est.): November 2026 brokerage metrics. Shows whether daily average revenue trades hold above October's 4.306 million and whether client equity recovers from $928.6 billion.
What would change the view
A daily close above $98.10, the late-August closing high of 25 August 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A November client equity figure back above the third quarter's $964.7 billion would also show the shares leading.
What it trades with
Interactive Brokers trades with retail brokerage and trading-volume names, including Robinhood, and with US equity market activity. Its earnings also depend on short-term interest rates through net interest income, which was $1.15 billion in the third quarter of 2026 (company 8-K, 15 October 2026).
The shares have reacted to monthly activity reports before. Benzinga reported the stock slid after the August metrics on 1 September 2026.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- October 2026 DARTs were 4.306 million, 4% lower than a year earlier and 5% higher than September; client accounts were 5.678 million, up 34% from a year earlier. Interactive Brokers October 2026 brokerage metrics release · as of
- October ending client equity was $928.6 billion, up 19% from a year earlier and 4% lower than the prior month; margin loans were $106.8 billion, up 31% from a year earlier. Interactive Brokers October 2026 brokerage metrics release · as of
- Third-quarter 2026 net revenue was $1.91 billion versus $1.66 billion a year earlier; diluted EPS was $0.69 versus $0.59; pretax margin was 78% versus 79%. Interactive Brokers 8-K, third-quarter 2026 results · as of
- Third-quarter stock volume fell 24% from a year earlier, options volume fell 1% and futures volume rose 13%; net interest income was $1.15 billion, up 19%. Interactive Brokers 8-K, third-quarter 2026 results · as of
- Quarterly dividend raised from $0.0875 to $0.15 per share, payable 14 December 2026 to holders of record 1 December 2026. Interactive Brokers 8-K, third-quarter 2026 results · as of
- Director Lawrence Harris sold 25,000 shares at $82.61 on 28 October 2026. SEC Form 4 filed 29 October 2026 · as of
- Rothschild & Co Redburn adjusted its price target on Interactive Brokers to $90 from $92. News headline, 10 November 2026 · as of
- Barclays kept Overweight with a $117 target; BMO kept Outperform with a $100 target. Benzinga, 16 October 2026 · as of
Sources
- Interactive Brokers Group Reports Brokerage Metrics and Other Financial Information for October 2026 · finviz.com
- Interactive Brokers Group Announces 3Q2026 Results · seekingalpha.com
- Interactive Brokers Reports 4.3 Million DARTs in October as Monthly Activity Rises 5% · financemagnates.com
- Kalkine Media
Related · shared themes
TW
Tradeweb Markets
Tradeweb Markets' 26.3% October volume growth points to fourth-quarter revenue growth above the third quarter's 14.9%. The November volume…
MRX
Marex Group
Marex Group's profit is growing fast, but the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500: the Q3 margin slipped to 23.7% and net interest…
PLMR
Palomar Holdings
Palomar Holdings is more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months because estimates keep rising after its fourth 2026 guidance…
AAMI
Acadian Asset Management
Acadian Asset Management's eleven straight quarters of client inflows, record fees and resumed buybacks give its shares a modest edge over…