TW · Tradeweb Markets
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a daily close below $107
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
24.1% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close below $107.00, on record since 10 November 2026. The shares are up 26.4% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close below $107, under both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which would erase most of the three-month gain; also fourth-quarter revenue growth below the third quarter's 14.9%, or a Hart-Scott-Rodino second request on the Trumid deal.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Financials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 29 October 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 585
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +14.9
- Operating margin (%)
- 43.4
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 1,155
- Price to earnings (×)
- 30.8
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- 4.1
All filed numbers
What Tradeweb Markets reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 585 | +14.9 | 43.4 |
| first filed | 559 | +9.0 | 43.9 |
| first filed | 618 | +21.2 | 46.5 |
| first filed | 521 | +12.5 | 42.4 |
| first filed | 509 | +13.3 | 41.4 |
| first filed | 513 | +26.7 | 39.0 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 290 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 909 | 198 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −1.9 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 1,201 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 46.6 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 1,155 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 2,115 |
| Debt ($M) | Not available |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | Not available |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +5.1% on a year | 38.1 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | Not reported |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 6,622 |
| Market value ($M) | 27,995 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not available |
| Price to earnings (×) | 30.8 |
| Price to book value (×) | 4.2 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 4.1 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 1.5% of shares outstanding sold short, 2.7 days of average trading to cover, −6.8% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $2.3M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $46.9M |
The thesis
Tradeweb Markets' October trading volume grew fast enough to point to fourth-quarter revenue growth above the third quarter's 14.9%. That makes the shares modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over the next three months. The November volume report, expected around 4 December 2026, and fourth-quarter results settle whether revenue keeps pace as credit fees per trade fall.
Average daily volume (ADV) rose 26.3% year over year to $3.6 trillion in October, the company reported on 5 November 2026. That matches the 26% rise in October average daily revenue that management cited on its 29 October 2026 call, with two trading days left in the month. Third-quarter revenue rose 14.9% while ADV rose 22.4%. The gap between volume and revenue is still the weak part of the case.
The shares closed at $130.60 on 11 November 2026, 0.4% under the intraday 52-week high of $131.15 set that day. They are up 23.9% over three months. Since the October volume report the only company news has been product and partnership releases. The latest gain therefore rests on results and volumes the market already knew.
Bullish and bearish views on Tradeweb Markets Inc.
The bull case on Tradeweb Markets Inc. (TW), in brief: October volume confirmed the revenue pace. The bear case: credit revenue lags credit volume.
Bull case
- October volume confirmed the revenue pace. ADV rose 26.3% to $3.6 trillion in October 2026 (company release, 5 November 2026). Management put October average daily revenue up 26% with two trading days left (29 October 2026 call).
- Rates activity leads the growth. Swaps and swaptions of one year or longer rose 39.3% to $698.2 billion ADV in October, and U.S. government bonds rose 32.6% to $304.2 billion (company release, 5 November 2026). Rates revenue rose 18.2% to $324.5 million in the third quarter (Form 8-K, 29 October 2026).
- Credit volume reached new highs. Fully electronic U.S. credit ADV rose 43.0% to $11.4 billion in October, and global cash credit portfolio trading ADV rose 54% (company release, 5 November 2026).
- Municipal bonds are gaining ground. Municipal ADV hit a record $940 million in October, up 91.7% (company release, 5 November 2026). Tradeweb launched Muni Sweep, a session-based municipal trading protocol, on 3 November 2026.
- Corporate treasury reach is widening. Tradeweb announced on 9 November 2026 that BNY's LiquidityDirect will be integrated into its ICD Portal for corporate treasury clients. The Trade reported the launch is expected in the first quarter of 2027.
- Margins edged higher. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) rose 16.2% to $318.9 million in the third quarter, a 54.5% margin against 54.0% a year earlier (Form 8-K, 29 October 2026).
- Cash returns are rising. Tradeweb repurchased 2,020,555 Class A shares for $209.8 million in the third quarter and raised its quarterly dividend 16.7% to $0.14, payable 15 December 2026 (Form 8-K, 29 October 2026).
- Trumid would add credit scale. The roughly $1.97 billion deal, announced 19 October 2026, is targeted to close in the first half of 2027 (company release). About half of the U.S. corporate bond market still trades bilaterally, Kevin McPartland of Coalition Greenwich told Fi-Desk on 20 October 2026.
Bear case
- Credit revenue lags credit volume. Credit revenue rose only 9.6% to $133.0 million in the third quarter (Form 8-K, 29 October 2026). October's 43.0% jump in fully electronic U.S. credit ADV raises the bar for fourth-quarter credit revenue.
- Fee per trade is falling. Cash credit fee per million fell 10.6% to $114.85 in the third quarter as activity shifted toward lower-fee portfolio trading (29 October 2026 call). Portfolio trading ADV grew 54% again in October, so the mix pressure has not eased.
- The price has reached most targets. The 11 November 2026 close of $130.60 sits a few dollars under Wells Fargo's $133 (Overweight), Barclays' $135 (Equal-Weight) and JPMorgan's $137 (Overweight), all set on 30 October 2026. Deutsche Bank's $115 (Hold), raised from $106 the same day, sits well below it.
- An executive sold into the rally. Co-Head of Global Markets Enrico Bruni exercised options at a $20.59 strike and sold 18,500 Class A shares on 3 November 2026 at an average of $126.26 (SEC Form 4, filed 5 November 2026).
- Antitrust review of Trumid is pending. Closing needs U.S. Hart-Scott-Rodino and U.K. Competition and Markets Authority clearance (company release, 19 October 2026). Fi-Desk described the deal on 20 October 2026 as narrowing the competitive field in U.S. electronic credit.
- The majority holder faces activist pressure. London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) controls Tradeweb, and Elliott Investment Management pushed LSEG for divestments and a £5 billion buyback, Bloomberg reported on 18 February 2026. A sale of Tradeweb stock by LSEG would add supply.
Price setup
The shares closed at $130.60 on 11 November 2026, after $129.63 on 10 November 2026 and $127.73 on 6 November 2026. They have risen on each of the last six listed sessions, from $126.99 on 4 November 2026. The 52-week closing low was $91.50 on 25 June 2026.
The 50-day moving average stands at $111.53 and the 200-day at $109.92, both as of 11 November 2026. The last close sits about $19 above the 50-day average, a wide gap built in the two weeks after third-quarter results. The 50-day and 200-day averages are the levels that would show whether the post-results gain holds.
The price already reflects a strong fourth quarter: the 11 November 2026 close is within a few dollars of three of the four analyst targets set on 30 October 2026. Further gains depend on the November and December volume reports showing growth near October's 26.3%. Tradeweb repurchased stock in the third quarter and has issued no shares into the rally.
Catalysts ahead
- ~4 December 2026 (est.): November 2026 monthly volume report. Shows whether ADV growth holds near October's 26.3% against November 2025's $2.9 trillion ADV, and whether credit volume keeps outrunning credit fees.
- 15 December 2026: Quarterly dividend of $0.14 per share payable. Confirms the 16.7% dividend increase announced with third-quarter results; it has little bearing on the volume-versus-revenue question.
- ~6 January 2027 (est.): December 2026 monthly volume report. Completes the fourth quarter's volume picture before results and shows whether the October and November pace carried through the quarter.
- ~February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 results. Shows whether revenue growth beats the third quarter's 14.9% and whether credit revenue growth improves on 9.6% as fees per trade fall.
- ~30 June 2027 (est.): Targeted Trumid closing, first half of 2027. Closing requires U.S. Hart-Scott-Rodino and U.K. Competition and Markets Authority clearance and brings Trumid into guidance and results.
What would change the view
A daily close below $107, under both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which would erase most of the three-month gain; also fourth-quarter revenue growth below the third quarter's 14.9%, or a Hart-Scott-Rodino second request on the Trumid deal.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- Antitrust reviewers object to combining two U.S. electronic credit platforms. Confirmed by: a second request under Hart-Scott-Rodino or a Phase 2 referral by the U.K. Competition and Markets Authority.
- Credit fee capture keeps falling as growth concentrates in lower-fee portfolio trading. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter credit revenue growth staying near or below the third quarter's 9.6% while credit ADV grows faster.
- Rate volatility calms and trading volume growth slows. Confirmed by: November monthly ADV growth falling far below October's 26.3% year-over-year pace.
- Margin expansion stalls as expenses rise with growth. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA margin below the year-earlier level, or 2027 expense guidance growing faster than revenue.
- London Stock Exchange Group sells Tradeweb stock under activist pressure, adding supply. Confirmed by: an announced secondary offering or block sale of Tradeweb shares by LSEG.
- The share price has run ahead of analyst expectations after results already known to the market. Confirmed by: analysts holding targets near $133-$137 after the November volume report, or a rating downgrade citing valuation.
What it trades with
Tradeweb's rates business, its largest revenue line at $324.5 million in the third quarter, rises and falls with interest-rate volatility and Treasury issuance. Swaps and Treasury volumes drove October's growth (company release, 5 November 2026). A calm rate market would hit Tradeweb alongside other bond-trading venues and dealer trading desks.
In credit, MarketAxess is the main listed competitor; the shares of both platforms respond to monthly U.S. credit volume and fee-capture data. The Trumid deal, announced 19 October 2026, adds an antitrust element that MarketAxess does not share. Tradeweb also carries exposure to LSEG corporate actions through LSEG's majority voting control.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- October 2026 total trading volume was $78.9 trillion and average daily volume was $3.6 trillion, up 26.3% year over year. Tradeweb October 2026 monthly activity report, 5 November 2026 · as of
- October swaps and swaptions of one year or longer rose 39.3% to $698.2 billion ADV; U.S. government bonds rose 32.6% to $304.2 billion ADV. Tradeweb October 2026 monthly activity report, 5 November 2026 · as of
- October fully electronic U.S. credit ADV rose 43.0% to $11.4 billion, global cash credit portfolio trading ADV rose 54%, and municipal bond ADV reached a record $940 million, up 91.7%. Tradeweb October 2026 monthly activity report, 5 November 2026 · as of
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $584.5 million, up 14.9% from $508.6 million; adjusted EPS was $1.02 versus $0.87. Tradeweb Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1, 29 October 2026 · as of
- Cash credit fee per million fell 10.6% to $114.85 in the third quarter, driven by a mix shift toward lower-fee portfolio trading. Tradeweb third-quarter 2026 earnings call, 29 October 2026 · as of
- JPMorgan raised its target to $137 (Overweight), Barclays to $135 (Equal-Weight), Wells Fargo to $133 (Overweight) and Deutsche Bank to $115 (Hold). Benzinga and Fiscal.ai analyst ratings, 30 October 2026 · as of
- Co-Head of Global Markets Enrico Bruni exercised options on 18,500 shares at $20.59 and sold 18,500 shares at an average of $126.26 on 3 November 2026. SEC Form 4 filed 5 November 2026 · as of
- Tradeweb announced a collaboration integrating BNY's LiquidityDirect into its ICD Portal for corporate treasury clients, with launch expected in the first quarter of 2027. Tradeweb news release, 9 November 2026; The Trade · as of
Sources
- Tradeweb Reports October 2026 Total Trading Volume of $78.9 Trillion and Average Daily Volume of $3.6 Trillion · tradeweb.com
- Tradeweb Revenue Climbs 15% to $584.5 Million as Trading Volumes Surge 22% · financemagnates.com
- Tradeweb Markets Inc. - Form 10-Q - FY2026 · sec.gov
- Tradeweb Collaborates with BNY to Expand ICD Portal Investment Options · tradeweb.com
- Tradeweb partners with BNY's LiquidityDirect to build out investment offering · thetradenews.com
- Tradeweb Markets co-head Bruni sells $2.3M in shares · investing.com
- Tradeweb acquires Trumid, narrows competitive landscape · fi-desk.com ·
- Elliott Pushes for Divestments, £5 Billion Buyback at LSE Group (LSEG LN) · bloomberg.com ·
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