BRK.B · Berkshire Hathaway

The thesis

Berkshire Hathaway's class B shares look more likely to lag than lead the S&P 500 over the next three months. Third-quarter operating earnings fell 5.8%, while the shares closed at a record $589.83 on 12 November 2026, far above the prices Berkshire paid for its own stock in the third quarter. The case turns on whether repurchases continue at these prices, and the fourth-quarter report, expected around 27 February 2027, shows that.

Berkshire's 7 November 2026 release showed third-quarter operating earnings of $12.705 billion, down from $13.485 billion a year earlier, as insurance underwriting and investment income both fell. Repurchases rose to about $9.6 billion, a quarterly record above the $9.3 billion of the third quarter of 2020, according to Motley Fool on 12 November 2026. Motley Fool's 9 November 2026 reading of the 10-Q puts the average class B price paid at $496.24 in July, $503.99 in August and $506.64 in September.

The price already reflects a richer valuation than the one at which Berkshire bought back stock. Motley Fool reported on 12 November 2026 that the shares trade at about 1.6 times book value, after often trading below 1.5 times during the third quarter. Morningstar said on 8 November 2026 that the shares traded at a 12% premium to its fair value estimate, which it expected to raise to about $510 per class B share.

The rating is Low because earnings are falling while the price is rising. The rally has continued since the report, so a lag over three months needs the run to stall.

Bullish and bearish views on Berkshire Hathaway Inc.

The bull case on Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.B), in brief: buybacks reached a quarterly record. The bear case: operating earnings fell 5.8%.

Bull case

• Buybacks reached a quarterly record. Repurchases were about $9.6 billion in the third quarter of 2026 and about $14.4 billion over nine months (Berkshire release, 7 November 2026). Motley Fool reads the record on 12 November 2026 as a sign that management judged the shares below intrinsic value.
• October buying continued, by one count. Kingswell's 9 November 2026 review of the 10-Q estimates about $2 billion of repurchases, roughly 2,550 class A equivalents, in the first four weeks of October.
• The non-insurance businesses grew. BNSF earned $1.729 billion against $1.449 billion a year earlier, Berkshire Hathaway Energy $1.612 billion against $1.489 billion, and manufacturing, service and retailing $4.042 billion against $3.616 billion (Berkshire release, 7 November 2026).
• Results beat some forecasts. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) raised its class A target to $765,000 from $735,000 on 9 November 2026, citing operating earnings above its forecast. Morningstar called the quarter slightly above its expectations on 8 November 2026.
• The shares keep making records. Daily closes show new record closes of $583.34 on 10 November 2026, $588.24 on 11 November 2026 and $589.83 on 12 November 2026. The 3-month gain to 12 November 2026 is 17.0%.

Bear case

• Operating earnings fell 5.8%. Third-quarter operating earnings dropped to $12.705 billion from $13.485 billion (Berkshire release, 7 November 2026). Net earnings fell to $22.112 billion from $30.796 billion as investment gains shrank.
• Insurance profits are shrinking. Underwriting earnings fell to $1.352 billion from $2.369 billion, and insurance investment income fell to $2.734 billion from $3.181 billion (Berkshire release, 7 November 2026). Kingswell reports GEICO's combined ratio rose to 91.4% from 84.3% a year earlier.
• GEICO's pricing may weaken next. Evercore ISI, in a note after the report cited by Motley Fool on 12 November 2026, called GEICO's advertising ramp "an interesting development" and wrote: "We wonder if renewal pricing decreases will come next."
• The price is far above Berkshire's buyback prices. The September class B average of $506.64 (Motley Fool, 9 November 2026) sits about $83 below the 12 November 2026 close. The Associated Press reported the rally may have led Berkshire to halt buybacks, per Motley Fool on 9 November 2026; Berkshire has not confirmed it.
• Analysts see the shares as full. KBW keeps an Underperform rating despite its higher target (Investing.com, 9 November 2026). Morningstar views the shares as moderately overvalued (8 November 2026).
• Berkshire was a net seller of stocks. Kingswell reports $2.4 billion of stock purchases against $2.8 billion of sales in the third quarter.
• An insider sold before the run. A Form 4 shows Vice Chairman Ajit Jain sold 39,700 shares at $503.09 on 28 September 2026.

Price setup

The shares closed at $589.83 on 12 November 2026, after touching an intraday 52-week high of $596.92 the same day. The last close is 1.2% below that high. The 52-week closing low was $465.40 on 22 April 2026.

The autumn run is steep. The 50-day moving average stood at $527.96 and the 200-day at $499.85 on 12 November 2026, so the price is about 12% above the shorter average. The shares closed at $504.03 on 14 August 2026, the reference for the 17.0% 3-month gain.

The first sessions after the 7 November 2026 report were mixed: the shares closed at $575.25 on 9 November 2026, below the $579.09 record close of 4 November 2026, then set three record closes in a row. The levels that matter are the $596.92 intraday high above and the $579.09 close of 4 November 2026 below; a close back under the 50-day average would show the run failing. Berkshire pays no dividend, so adjusted and quoted closes match.

Catalysts ahead

• ~16 November 2026 (est.): Third-quarter 2026 13F holdings filing. Shows quarter-end stock holdings, including Alphabet and Lennar, and which positions made up the $2.8 billion of third-quarter sales.
• ~27 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 report and annual shareholder letter. Gives the October–December buyback total and prices paid at record share prices, plus GEICO margins; repurchases at or above $9.6 billion would undercut the lag call.

What would change the view

A weekly close above $600, over the record closes of 10 November to 12 November 2026, which would show the shares leading despite lower operating earnings; also a fourth-quarter report showing repurchases at or above the third quarter's $9.6 billion.

What it trades with

BigGo Finance tied Berkshire's autumn run partly to money moving from AI and technology stocks into steadier businesses, and Motley Fool linked the rally to rotation out of AI stocks on 5 November 2026. A recovery in chip shares, measured by the iShares Semiconductor ETF, is the main outside risk to Berkshire's relative performance.

The business ties run elsewhere too. GEICO links the shares to auto-insurance pricing, alongside Progressive and Allstate. The Treasury bill balance links investment income to short-term interest rates, and that income fell 14% in the third quarter (Berkshire release, 7 November 2026). BNSF ties earnings to rail freight volumes. The Taylor Morrison purchase and the Lennar stake add homebuilding exposure, and the Alphabet stake adds a direct link to a large AI platform.