NKE · Nike
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $44.42
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
14.5% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $44.42, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 1.8% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $44.42, the 200-day moving average of adjusted closes as of 11 November 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; a raised fiscal 2027 revenue or adjusted EPS outlook at the Investor Day would also prove the call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Consumer Discretionary
Quarter to 31 August 2026, filed 2 October 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 11,213
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −4.3
- Gross margin (%)
- 42.8
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 2,105
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −990
- Price to earnings (×)
- 18.2
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 1.3
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- 3.7
All filed numbers
What Nike reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 11,213 | −4.3 | 42.8 |
| first filed | 10,972 | −1.1 | 49.2 |
| first filed | 11,279 | +0.1 | 40.2 |
| first filed | 12,427 | +0.6 | 40.6 |
| first filed | 11,720 | +1.1 | 42.2 |
| first filed | 11,097 | −12.0 | 40.3 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 921 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 3,093 | 712 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 31 August 2025 | +0.4 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 2,781 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 676 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 2,105 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 6,903 |
| Debt ($M) non-current long-term debt plus current maturities | 7,893 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −990 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 5,242 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 15,220 |
| Market value ($M) | 56,385 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 57,375 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 1.3 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not available |
| Price to earnings (×) | 18.2 |
| Price to book value (×) | 3.7 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 3.7 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 7.0% of shares outstanding sold short, 1.9 days of average trading to cover, +4.5% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $371K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $7.2M | $2.1M |
The thesis
NIKE's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. Revenue is still falling, and analysts kept cutting or holding targets near the share price ahead of the company's first Investor Day since 2017. The Investor Day presentations on 17 November 2026 and the second-quarter fiscal 2027 report, expected around 17 December 2026, show whether management can put a date on a return to revenue growth.
The business facts date from the 1 October 2026 report. NIKE guided fiscal 2027 revenue down a high-single-digit percentage and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) to $1.15–$1.35, against a $1.69 consensus reported by Benzinga. S&P Global Ratings cut NIKE to A from A+ on 5 October 2026 with a negative outlook.
Analyst flow in November has pointed one way. Morgan Stanley cut its target to $25 from $27 on 4 November 2026. Truist downgraded the shares to Sell on 5 November 2026 with a $29 target. RBC Capital lowered its target to $39 from $40 on 6 November 2026. Cantor Fitzgerald started coverage at Neutral with a $38 target on 10 November 2026, according to Benzinga.
The bar for the Investor Day is set low but specific. Finimize reported that RBC expects five-year targets close to consensus, with low-to-mid single-digit revenue growth, and puts NIKE's revenue growth potential at 3%–4%, below a sporting-goods average of about 5%–6%. A long-term target in that range restates what analysts already model. The case for a lag holds unless management guides above it or raises the fiscal 2027 outlook.
Bullish and bearish views on Nike, Inc.
The bull case on Nike, Inc. (NKE), in brief: Investor Day can reset expectations. The bear case: sales are shrinking in every channel.
Bull case
- Investor Day can reset expectations. NIKE said on 23 October 2026 that main-stage presentations on 17 November 2026 will set out its next phase of growth and the financial plan behind it; the company had promised a long-term growth algorithm, portfolio priorities and financial objectives.
- Pace savings are sizeable. NIKE's 1 October 2026 operating-model announcement targets about $2.5 billion of savings from its Pace restructuring, against about $1 billion of implementation costs over the program's life.
- Gross margin rose in a down quarter. First-quarter fiscal 2027 gross margin was 42.8%, up 0.6 percentage point from a year earlier, mainly on lower warehousing and logistics costs (NIKE release, 1 October 2026).
- Some analysts still see upside. Barclays lifted its target to $45 from $37 on 22 October 2026 and kept Overweight, saying the shares were near a bottom (Stocktwits); Guggenheim and BTIG each repeated Buy with $50 targets the same day (Benzinga).
- Pessimism is already heavy. CME Elite Group reported on 5 November 2026 that 10 of 44 analysts rate NIKE Sell, and that FactSet counts the Sell ratings as the highest in at least 30 years.
- The dividend record is long. NIKE has raised its dividend for 24 straight years, according to 247 Wall St. on 15 October 2026; the current quarterly rate is $0.41 per share.
Bear case
- Sales are shrinking in every channel. First-quarter revenue was $11.2 billion, down 4%, missing the $11.33 billion consensus (Benzinga, 1 October 2026). NIKE Direct fell 8% with digital down 13%, and wholesale slipped 1%.
- The two biggest lines are weakening. Truist noted on 5 November 2026 that Sportswear and Jordan make up over 60% of revenue; Jordan revenue fell from $8.7 billion in fiscal 2024 to $7.03 billion in fiscal 2026 (CME Elite Group).
- Greater China is the deepest hole. China sales fell 26% in the quarter ended 31 August 2026, and management warned conditions may worsen (CME Elite Group, 5 November 2026).
- Inventory clearing weighs on margins. Finimize reported RBC's view that clearing excess lifestyle inventory could keep sales and margins under pressure; Truist expects several seasons of online discounting and tough World Cup comparisons (CME Elite Group, 5 November 2026).
- Long-term growth trails peers. RBC puts NIKE's revenue growth potential at 3%–4%, below the 5%–6% it sees for the sporting-goods sector (Finimize).
- Credit is under pressure. S&P Global Ratings put NIKE on negative outlook at A on 5 October 2026; Tradingpedia reported S&P expects about $1.2 billion a year of cash burn after dividends for two to three years.
Price setup
The shares closed at $38.32 on 11 November 2026, 44.6% below the 52-week high of $69.14 set on 12 December 2025. They are 13% above the 52-week closing low of $33.87 on 2 October 2026. Over three months they are down 6.1% on adjusted closes, from $41.23 on 13 August 2026.
The last close sits above the 50-day moving average of $36.91 and well below the 200-day moving average, both as of 11 November 2026. The shares have slipped from a $40.49 close on 4 November 2026 to $38.32 on 11 November 2026 as targets were trimmed. A move back above the 200-day average would put the shares above the level where they traded for most of the past year.
Published targets mostly sit at or below the price. Morgan Stanley's $25 and Truist's $29 are 35% and 24% under the 11 November 2026 close; Cantor Fitzgerald's $38 and RBC's $39 bracket it. Above it sit Barclays at $45 and Guggenheim and BTIG at $50. Benzinga's options scanner flagged large NIKE options trades on 10 November 2026, ahead of the event.
Catalysts ahead
- 16 November 2026: NIKE Investor Day, 16 November to 17 November 2026, with main-stage presentations webcast from about 8:30 a.m. PT on 17 November 2026. Shows whether management sets long-term revenue growth above the low-to-mid single digits RBC expects, dates a return to growth, and holds or changes the $1.15-$1.35 fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS range.
- ~19 November 2026 (est.): NIKE quarterly dividend declaration; prior declarations came on 14 November 2024 and 20 November 2025. A flat $0.41 dividend after 24 years of raises would signal that the cash burn S&P forecasts is constraining capital returns.
- ~17 December 2026 (est.): NIKE second-quarter fiscal 2027 results. Shows whether revenue declines narrow from the first quarter's 4%, whether China improves on its 26% drop, and whether the EPS range survives.
What would change the view
A daily close above $44.42, the 200-day moving average of adjusted closes as of 11 November 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; a raised fiscal 2027 revenue or adjusted EPS outlook at the Investor Day would also prove the call wrong.
What it trades with
NIKE has traded with the rotation into consumer discretionary names; Truist attributed the October rally to that rotation on 5 November 2026. The link weakened into the Investor Day. On 11 November 2026 Benzinga reported cyclical sectors leading the market, yet NIKE slipped to $38.32 from $38.67. Company-specific drivers, China demand, the Jordan reset and the Investor Day targets, now outweigh sector moves. A broad sell-off like that of 10 November 2026, when Benzinga reported all 11 sectors lower, still pulls the shares down with the market.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- NIKE's first-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue was $11.2 billion, down 4% reported; gross margin was 42.8%, up 0.6 percentage point; diluted EPS was $0.48. NIKE fiscal 2027 first-quarter earnings release · as of
- NIKE guided fiscal 2027 revenue down a high-single-digit percentage and adjusted EPS of $1.15-$1.35, against a $1.69 consensus. NIKE release; Benzinga · as of
- NIKE's Pace restructuring targets about $2.5 billion of savings against about $1 billion of implementation costs over the program's life. NIKE operating-model announcement · as of
- Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage of NIKE at Neutral with a $38 price target. Benzinga; fiscal.ai · as of
- RBC Capital kept Sector Perform on NIKE, cut its target to $39 from $40, and sees NIKE revenue growth potential of 3%-4% against a 5%-6% sporting-goods average. RBC note as reported by Benzinga and Finimize · as of
- Truist downgraded NIKE to Sell from Hold with a $29 target, citing Jordan and Sportswear weakness, a 26% China sales decline and tough World Cup comparisons. CME Elite Group; Benzinga · as of
- Of 44 analysts covering NIKE, 22 rate it Hold, 12 Buy and 10 Sell; FactSet says the Sell count is the highest in at least 30 years. CME Elite Group · as of
- S&P Global Ratings downgraded NIKE to A from A+ with a negative outlook and expects about $1.2 billion a year of cash burn after dividends for two to three years. S&P Global Ratings action as reported by Benzinga and Tradingpedia · as of
Sources
- NIKE, Inc. Announces 2026 Investor Day Webcast · finance.yahoo.com ·
- Nike's Capital Markets Day Looks More Like A Reset Than A Rally · finimize.com
- Nike Downgraded to Sell at Truist as Weakness Extends Beyond Fading Jordan Brand · cmelitegroup.com ·
- NIKE, Inc. Announces Changes to Its Operating Model · about.nike.com
- NKE Stock In Focus: Barclays Raises Price Target To $45, Says Shares Are ‘Near Bottom’ · stocktwits.com
- Nike Has Raised Its Dividend for 24 Straight Years. November Could Change Everything · 247wallst.com ·
Related · shared themes
CPRI
Capri Holdings
Capri Holdings' Michael Kors turnaround gives the shares a modest edge over the S&P 500 after the 30 October 2026 beat-and-raise, despite a…
CROX
Crocs
Crocs, Inc. is more likely to lead the S&P 500 over three months: a third-quarter beat and a third guidance raise lifted full-year adjusted…
CRSR
Corsair Gaming
Corsair Gaming's recovery case holds after it beat third-quarter guidance and raised its 2026 outlook on 5 November 2026; the…
EL
Estee Lauder Companies
Estée Lauder's turnaround now shows in sales as well as margins, with first-quarter organic sales up 6% and the fiscal 2027 outlook raised…
See also · stocks to watch