NIQ · NIQ Global Intelligence
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $24.43
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
20.8% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $24.43, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 12.2% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $24.43, well above the $21.52 52-week intraday high of 9 November 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; fourth-quarter organic constant-currency growth above the 5.7% top of the guide would also prove this call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
The business · as of
NIQ Global Intelligence sells consumer-purchase data and analytics, mostly by subscription, to consumer-goods makers and retailers. These clients use it to track sales, prices and market share. Revenue was $1,119 million in the quarter to 30 September 2026, per the 10-Q filed 12 November 2026.
What is changing, and what follows · as of
- What is changing now
- On 12 November 2026 NIQ reported third-quarter revenue of $1,119.1 million, up 6.3% (5.8% organic constant currency), cut net leverage to 2.9 times and raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $1.16–1.20.
- What follows for the company
- Operating margin widened to 9.5% in the quarter to 30 September 2026 from −3.3% a year earlier. Four-quarter free cash flow was $489 million against $3,548 million of debt, and the board authorized a $150 million buyback.
- What follows for its customers, suppliers and competitors
- Under the 29 October 2026 partnership, Google (GOOGL) carries NIQ data in its AI commerce tools and is a primary AI provider. EMEA consumer-goods clients face what the CEO called real budget pressure, and growth there was 2.9%.
What the price assumes · as of
At the 13 November 2026 close (filed inputs to 12 November 2026) the shares trade at 2.0 times sales, 38.4 times operating earnings (EV/EBIT) and an 8.5% free-cash-flow yield. P/E is not meaningful after a $117 million four-quarter net loss. Those multiples hold only if the operating margin keeps widening from the 9.5% of the quarter to 30 September 2026 while revenue grows near that quarter's 6.3%.
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 12 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 1,119
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +6.3
- Gross margin (%)
- 56.6
- Operating margin (%)
- 9.5
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 489
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −2,976
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 2.0
- Enterprise value to operating income (×)
- 38.4
All filed numbers
What NIQ Global Intelligence reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 1,119 | +6.3 | 56.6 | 9.5 |
| first filed | 1,124 | +8.0 | 55.5 | 5.8 |
| first filed | 1,073 | +11.1 | 55.7 | −1.0 |
| first filed | 1,139 | +9.2 | 54.8 | 5.7 |
| first filed | 1,053 | +7.2 | 55.6 | −3.3 |
| first filed restated | 1,041 | +5.6 | 56.8 | 3.8 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 67.5 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −117 | 35.8 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +5.1 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 520 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 31.0 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 489 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 573 |
| Debt ($M) non-current long-term debt plus current debt | 3,549 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −2,976 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) −1.7% on a year | 319 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) +3.0% on a year | 1,751 |
| Receivables ($M) | 763 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 965 |
| Market value ($M) | 5,718 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 8,694 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 2.0 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 38.4 |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 5.9 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 8.5 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 1.7% of shares outstanding sold short, 4.0 days of average trading to cover, +37.2% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $1.0M | $0 |
Linked companies · as of
- Suppliers:
- GOOGL
The thesis
NIQ Global Intelligence is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. It has met its debt-reduction goal, but organic growth is not speeding up. The fourth-quarter report, expected around 26 February 2027 with the first 2027 outlook, shows whether growth moves above the 5.8% pace. The rating is Low for that reason.
The 12 November 2026 third-quarter report beat on every guided measure. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.30 beat the $0.23 estimate, and revenue of $1,119.1 million beat the $1.109 billion estimate, per Benzinga. Net leverage fell to 2.9 times. GAAP net income was $35.8 million, the first profit since the July 2025 initial public offering (IPO). The board authorized a $150 million share repurchase, and full-year adjusted EPS guidance rose to $1.16–1.20 from $1.08–1.12.
The shares still fell 8.7%, from a $21.06 close on 11 November 2026 to $19.22 on 12 November 2026. The market had already priced the deleveraging and now values NIQ on growth. Organic constant-currency growth was 5.8% in the third quarter, the same as in the second. Fourth-quarter guidance of $1,198–1,202 million in revenue and $0.43–0.47 in adjusted EPS brackets estimates of $1.201 billion and $0.45, per Benzinga. The full-year raise therefore comes from a quarter that is already reported.
On 13 November 2026 five brokers raised their targets: Barclays to $25, Needham to $24, RBC and Deutsche Bank to $23, and Wells Fargo to $22, per company news headlines. All five sit above the 13 November 2026 close of $19.36. The raises follow the guidance increase. They do not change the fourth-quarter growth guide the case turns on.
Bullish and bearish views on NIQ Global Intelligence plc
The bull case on NIQ Global Intelligence plc (NIQ), in brief: leverage goal reached early. The bear case: organic growth has stalled.
Bull case
- Leverage goal reached early. Net leverage was 2.9 times at 30 September 2026, down from 3.1 times at 30 June 2026, per the company's 12 November 2026 release. Debt repayments totaled $241.7 million in the first nine months of 2026.
- Cash generation is strong. The 10-Q filed 12 November 2026 shows $489 million of free cash flow over the four quarters to 30 September 2026. That is an 8.5% yield on the $5,718 million market value at the 13 November 2026 close. Third-quarter levered free cash flow was $181.2 million, per the release.
- Margins are widening. Operating margin was 9.5% in the quarter to 30 September 2026, against −3.3% a year earlier, per the 10-Q. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) rose 17.8% to $263.6 million, a 23.6% margin, per the 12 November 2026 release.
- The Americas are growing fast. Americas revenue grew 11.5% on an organic constant-currency basis in the third quarter, per the 12 November 2026 release.
- Brokers raised targets after the report. Barclays ($25), Needham ($24), RBC ($23), Deutsche Bank ($23) and Wells Fargo ($22) lifted their targets on 13 November 2026, per company news headlines.
- A buyback gives cash a second use. The board authorized $150 million of repurchases on 12 November 2026. On the call, Chief Financial Officer (CFO) Mike Burwell said purchases would be opportunistic and would not start immediately.
Bear case
- Organic growth has stalled. Organic constant-currency growth was 5.8% in both the second and third quarters of 2026. The 12 November 2026 guidance sets the fourth quarter at 5.4–5.7% and the full year at 5.5–5.7%.
- Europe and Asia are soft. Third-quarter organic constant-currency growth was 2.9% in Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) and 0.2% in Asia-Pacific, per the 12 November 2026 release. On the call, Burwell tied weaker one-off project demand in EMEA to the Middle East conflict, and Chief Executive Officer Jim Peck said clients face "real budget pressure."
- Subscription growth is moderating. Annualized Intelligence subscription revenue was $3,061.8 million at 30 September 2026, up 5.5%, with 105% net and 99% gross dollar retention. Burwell said on the 12 November 2026 call that he expects subscription growth of 5.5% to 6%.
- AI revenue is still small. Management said on the 12 November 2026 call that AI products add about 0.1 percentage point of growth in 2026 and should add 0.25 to 0.5 point in 2027. It gave no formal 2027 guidance.
- GAAP earnings are thin and debt is large. Net income was −$117 million over the four quarters to 30 September 2026, and debt was $3,548 million at that date, per the 10-Q filed 12 November 2026. Enterprise value is 38.4 times operating earnings at the 13 November 2026 close.
- Sponsor supply remains. Advent and KKR have backed the company since the 2021 take-private. The shares closed above the $21 IPO price on 9 November 2026, 10 November 2026 and 11 November 2026, a range in which a sponsor share sale becomes more practical.
Price setup
The shares closed at $19.36 on 13 November 2026, up from $19.22 on 12 November 2026. That is 10.0% below the 52-week intraday high of $21.52, set on 9 November 2026, when the highest close was $21.42. The 52-week closing low was $7.97, on 25 June 2026. The 3-month change is 12.2%, from the $17.25 close of 17 August 2026.
As of 13 November 2026, the close sits above the 50-day moving average of $18.73 and well above the 200-day moving average of $13.34. The two reference levels are the $21 IPO price above and the 50-day average below. A close under the 50-day average would give back most of the rise since the second-quarter report.
The two latest reports drew opposite moves. The shares rose 42% on 11 August 2026, to $16.58, after second-quarter organic growth accelerated to 5.8%, per TIKR. They fell 8.7% on 12 November 2026 when growth held at that rate. Two reactions are too few to establish a pattern.
SEC Form 4 filings show only shares withheld for tax. Chief Human Resources Officer Shaun Zitting had 1,517 shares withheld at $19.93 on 6 November 2026. Burwell had 36,480 shares withheld at $18.31 on 20 August 2026. Insiders filed no open-market purchases or sales in that period.
Catalysts ahead
- 17 November 2026: CEO Jim Peck and CFO Mike Burwell fireside chat at the J.P. Morgan Ultimate Services Investor Conference, 2:40 p.m. ET. First management comments since the third-quarter report: on EMEA client budgets, subscription growth in the 5.5–6% range, buyback timing and the next leverage priority now that 2.9 times is reached.
- ~26 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 report, with the first 2027 outlook. Shows whether fourth-quarter organic constant-currency growth beats the 5.4–5.7% guide and whether 2027 guidance calls for growth above the 2026 pace, the condition the lag view turns on.
What would change the view
A daily close above $24.43, well above the $21.52 52-week intraday high of 9 November 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; fourth-quarter organic constant-currency growth above the 5.7% top of the guide would also prove this call wrong.
What it trades with
The shares move mostly on company-specific news: organic growth against guidance, subscription retention, and the timing of any sponsor share sales. Debt was $3,548 million at 30 September 2026, and the second-quarter 10-Q showed $3,459.0 million scheduled to mature in 2030. That keeps the equity sensitive to interest rates and credit conditions. The EMEA weakness reported on 12 November 2026 ties results to consumer-goods client budgets in that region and to the Middle East conflict. Partnership news, such as the Google agreement of 29 October 2026, has carried no disclosed contract value.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $1,119.1 million, up 6.3% reported and 5.8% organic constant currency; Americas grew 11.5%, EMEA 2.9% and Asia-Pacific 0.2% organic constant currency. NIQ third-quarter 2026 results release, 8-K filed 12 November 2026 · as of
- Third-quarter 2026 adjusted EPS was $0.30 against a $0.23 estimate; GAAP net income attributable was $35.8 million ($0.12 per share), the first profit since the IPO. NIQ 8-K filed 12 November 2026; Benzinga · as of
- Net leverage was 2.9 times at 30 September, down from 3.1 times at 30 June; third-quarter levered free cash flow was $181.2 million and debt repayments in the first nine months were $241.7 million. NIQ third-quarter 2026 results release, 8-K filed 12 November 2026 · as of
- 2026 guidance was raised: adjusted EPS to $1.16–1.20 from $1.08–1.12 and revenue to $4,513–4,520 million from $4,496–4,510 million; organic constant-currency growth is guided at 5.5–5.7%. NIQ third-quarter 2026 results release; Benzinga · as of
- Fourth-quarter 2026 guidance: revenue $1,198–1,202 million and adjusted EPS $0.43–0.47, against estimates of $1.201 billion and $0.45; organic constant-currency growth 5.4–5.7%. NIQ third-quarter 2026 results release; Benzinga · as of
- Annualized Intelligence subscription revenue was $3,061.8 million, up 5.5%, with 105% net and 99% gross dollar retention. NIQ third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Barclays raised its target to $25, Needham to $24, RBC and Deutsche Bank to $23, and Wells Fargo to $22. Broker target changes reported in company news headlines, 13 November 2026 · as of
- Management expects AI products to add about 0.1 point of growth in 2026 and 0.25 to 0.5 point in 2027; no formal 2027 guidance was given. NIQ third-quarter 2026 earnings call · as of
Sources
- NIQ Global Intelligence plc - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov
- NIQ Global Intelligence (NIQ) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript · fool.com ·
- NielsenIQ ·
- TIKR ·
- NIQ Announces Third Quarter 2026 Results · stocktitan.net