APH · Amphenol
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $88.62
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
11.7% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $88.62, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 8.3% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $88.62, the highest close of the last 63 sessions (6 October 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong. Fourth-quarter 2026 orders above the third quarter's record $12.2 billion would also prove it wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 30 October 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 10,230
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +65.1
- Gross margin (%)
- 39.3
- Operating margin (%)
- 29.5
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 5,121
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −12,569
- Price to earnings (×)
- 32.6
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 6.2
All filed numbers
What Amphenol reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 10,230 | +65.1 | 39.3 | 29.5 |
| first filed | 8,758 | +55.0 | 40.5 | 29.5 |
| first filed | 7,620 | +58.4 | 36.7 | 24.0 |
| first filed | 6,439 | +49.1 | 38.2 | 26.8 |
| first filed | 6,194 | +53.4 | 38.1 | 27.5 |
| first filed | 5,650 | +56.5 | 36.3 | 25.1 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 2,829 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 5,932 | 2,034 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +0.7 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 6,479 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 1,358 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 5,121 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 5,301 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt and finance leases | 17,871 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −12,569 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 7,782 |
| Inventory ($M) | 5,265 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 17,124 |
| Market value ($M) | 193,170 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 205,740 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 6.2 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 22.5 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 32.6 |
| Price to book value (×) | 11.3 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 2.7 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 1.1% of shares outstanding sold short, 2.6 days of average trading to cover, −11.6% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $65.9M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $1.3M | $407.2M |
The thesis
Amphenol Corporation's orders are at a record, but its shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. Investors are re-pricing artificial-intelligence (AI) hardware stocks at lower multiples, and Amphenol has trailed the market's recovery. Nvidia's results on 17 November 2026 are the next test. Amphenol's fourth-quarter report in late January 2027 shows whether orders carry into 2027.
The clearest new datapoint is the 11 November 2026 session. AI stocks rallied that day: the S&P 500 rose 1.3% to 7,619.38 and CoreWeave jumped 24.7% after its results, the Associated Press reported. Amphenol still fell, closing at $79.31 against $79.95 the session before. The AP put the S&P 500 within 2.6% of its record that day. Amphenol's close was 11.8% below its 52-week intraday high of $89.93 on 6 October 2026.
The business is not the problem. Third-quarter 2026 orders were a record $12.2 billion, and fourth-quarter guidance was well above consensus. The problem is valuation. On 2 November 2026 Bernstein cut the earnings multiple it applies to Amphenol to 26 times from 28 times, citing a broader de-rating of AI-exposed industrials, Investing.com reported. The rating is Low because a record order book has not stopped that de-rating, and the next dated test belongs to Nvidia.
Bullish and bearish views on Amphenol Corporation
The bull case on Amphenol Corporation (APH), in brief: orders still run ahead of sales. The bear case: Amphenol missed the 11 November 2026 AI rebound.
Bull case
- Orders still run ahead of sales. Third-quarter 2026 orders were a record $12.2 billion against sales of $10.2 billion. That is a book-to-bill ratio (orders divided by sales) of 1.19:1, the company reported on 28 October 2026.
- Guidance beat consensus by a wide margin. On 28 October 2026 Amphenol guided fourth-quarter sales to $10.3–10.5 billion against a $9.768 billion consensus. It guided adjusted earnings per share (EPS) to $0.81–0.83 against $0.75, per Benzinga headlines.
- Margins are at highs. Trefis reported on 7 November 2026 that the twelve-month operating margin reached 28.3%, up from 24.6% a year earlier. Twelve-month operating cash flow was $6.48 billion, up from $4.5 billion.
- AI-linked sales drive growth. Communications Solutions sales were $6.58 billion in the third quarter, up 99% in dollars and 51% organically, per the 28 October 2026 release. Trefis put IT datacom at 48% of third-quarter sales, and management said AI makes up about three-quarters of those sales.
- Analyst targets sit above the price. JPMorgan, Citigroup and BNP Paribas set $115 targets, Truist $112, UBS and Barclays $111 and Bernstein $102 between 29 October 2026 and 2 November 2026. The consensus target was $106.97 from 19 analysts on 6 November 2026, per StockAnalysis.
- Shareholder returns step up in January. On 28 October 2026 the board raised the quarterly dividend 20% to $0.15, payable 13 January 2027. It also approved a three-year, $4 billion buyback starting 1 January 2027.
Bear case
- Amphenol missed the 11 November 2026 AI rebound. The S&P 500 rose 1.3% and the Nasdaq Composite 1.6% that day, the AP reported. Amphenol's close slipped to $79.31 from $79.95.
- Analysts are paying less per dollar of earnings. Bernstein's 2 November 2026 target rise to $102 from $99 came only from rolling its model forward a quarter. It cut its target price-to-earnings multiple to 26 times from 28 times.
- The AI trade broke in one session. On 5 November 2026 the Nasdaq fell 5.52% and S&P 500 information technology fell 7.30%, per StockTitan's market wrap. Amphenol fell 9.3% to $71.64 the same day, per GuruFocus.
- Rate-hike expectations are rising. A worse-than-expected inflation report raised expectations of further Federal Reserve rate increases, the AP reported on 11 November 2026. Higher rates raise financing costs for data-center builders.
- Data-center rules are tightening in Texas. Open Magazine reported on 6 November 2026 that Governor Greg Abbott directed the state's environmental regulator to hold data-center permits pending power and water information.
- The chief executive sold before the fall. Richard Norwitt sold 799,576 shares at $82.48 on 2 November 2026 after exercising options at $11.19, and gifted 200,000 shares, per an SEC Form 4 filed 3 November 2026.
- Acquisitions inflate dollar growth. Third-quarter sales grew 65% in dollars but 37% organically, per the 28 October 2026 release. The acquired CommScope business accounts for much of the gap.
Price setup
Amphenol closed at $79.31 on 11 November 2026. That is below the 50-day moving average of $81.23 and above the 200-day moving average of $75.30, both from adjusted closes as of 11 November 2026. The shares are down 4.2% over three months.
The rout and the recovery are both visible in the daily closes. The stock closed at $79.01 on 4 November 2026 and $71.64 on 5 November 2026. It recovered to $74.59 on 6 November 2026 and $80.71 on 9 November 2026, then slipped to $79.95 and $79.31. The recovery stalled below the 50-day average.
The 52-week intraday high is $89.93, set on 6 October 2026. The 52-week closing low is $59.58, set on 30 March 2026. A sustained move back over the 50-day average would weaken the lag case. A fall through the 200-day average would fit it.
Catalysts ahead
- 17 November 2026: Nvidia third-quarter fiscal 2027 report, after the US market close. Nvidia's outlook tests the AI build-out demand behind Amphenol's IT datacom orders; Amphenol's first reaction session is 18 November 2026.
- ~9 December 2026 (est.): Federal Reserve December 2026 policy decision. A rate increase would raise financing costs for data-center builders; a hold would ease one pressure on AI-hardware valuations.
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): Expected closing of the AdvancedPCB and Humanetics Sensors acquisitions. Closing adds defense, industrial and sensor sales that current guidance excludes and begins the integration work.
- ~27 January 2027 (est.): Amphenol fourth-quarter 2026 report and first 2027 outlook, before the US market opens. Sales against the $10.3–10.5 billion guidance and a new book-to-bill ratio show whether order momentum carries into 2027.
What would change the view
A daily close above $88.62, the highest close of the last 63 sessions (6 October 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong. Fourth-quarter 2026 orders above the third quarter's record $12.2 billion would also prove it wrong.
What it trades with
Amphenol trades with the AI-infrastructure group on down days. On 5 November 2026 Nvidia fell 9.26%, per Open Magazine, and Amphenol fell 9.3%, per GuruFocus. StockAnalysis listed Amphenol's beta at 1.28 on 6 November 2026, so index swings carry through with extra force.
The link has been weaker on up days. On 11 November 2026 the VanEck Semiconductor ETF rose 6.3%, BNN Bloomberg reported, while Amphenol fell. Nvidia carries a company-specific risk into its 17 November 2026 report: its board is investigating chief executive Jensen Huang, the AP reported on 11 November 2026. Interest rates are a second driver, and IT datacom at 48% of third-quarter sales, per Trefis, keeps the shares tied to the data-center cycle.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 sales were $10.2 billion, up 65% in dollars and 37% organically; orders were a record $12.2 billion, a 1.19:1 book-to-bill ratio. Amphenol third-quarter 2026 results release (8-K exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Amphenol guided fourth-quarter 2026 sales to $10.3–10.5 billion and adjusted EPS to $0.81–0.83, against consensus of $9.768 billion and $0.75. Amphenol third-quarter 2026 results release; Benzinga headline · as of
- Bernstein raised its Amphenol target to $102 from $99 and kept Outperform, while cutting its target price-to-earnings multiple to 26x from 28x on a de-rating of AI-exposed industrials. Investing.com, 2 November 2026 · as of
- On a day AI stocks rebounded, the S&P 500 rose 1.3% to 7,619.38 and CoreWeave rose 24.7%; Amphenol closed at $79.31, down from $79.95. Associated Press market report, 11 November 2026; daily closes · as of
- Nvidia's board is investigating chief executive Jensen Huang over a relationship he admitted to; Nvidia rose 2.9% on 11 November 2026. Associated Press market report, 11 November 2026 · as of
- Chief executive Richard Norwitt exercised options on 799,576 shares at $11.19, sold 799,576 shares at $82.48 and gifted 200,000 shares. SEC Form 4 filed 3 November 2026 · as of
- Texas Governor Greg Abbott directed the state environmental regulator to hold data-center permits pending power and water information. Open Magazine, 6 November 2026 · as of
- The consensus price target was $106.97 from 19 analysts; the forward price-to-earnings ratio was 20.55 and beta 1.28. StockAnalysis APH overview page · as of
Sources
- AI stocks rebound, and Wall Street nearly returns to where it was before last week's sell-off · kob.com ·
- Bernstein raises Amphenol stock price target to $102 on datacom strength · investing.com ·
- Markets today: AI stocks rebound · bnnbloomberg.ca ·
- Should You Buy The Dip In Amphenol Stock? · trefis.com ·
- Nasdaq Rebounds as Nvidia Jumps. How Much of the AI Rout Has It Won Back? · openthemagazine.com ·
- NVIDIA
- The Stock Market Today, November 5, 2026, Closed Sharply Lower as the AI Chip Selloff Spread · stocktitan.net ·
- AMPHENOL CORP /DE/ - Form 4 - FY2026 · sec.gov
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