TER · Teradyne, Inc.

Current Thesis

Teradyne’s recovery thesis is that demand for artificial-intelligence (AI) chip testing can restore a weekly close above the published $418.79 resistance before a weekly close below $296 breaks the case. These are the research thresholds identified in the 2026-09-06 note, not newly measured chart levels.

The measured change is an improved price and momentum reading: the adjusted close reached $371.47 on 2026-09-18, compared with $357.03 on 2026-09-04. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) rose from 23.7 to 54.4 across those snapshots. That supports a recovery interpretation, but the observations are too few to establish a durable reversal.

The narrative is maturing — an inference grounded in the 2026-07-28 revenue record, the 2026-09-01 product announcement and the 2026-09-14 India expansion, while the shares remained 23.2% below their adjusted 52-week high on 2026-09-18. The earlier saturation assessment is less persuasive after the price recovery; expanding investor participation remains unmeasured. Teradyne announcement chronology

Bullish and bearish views on Teradyne, Inc.

The model's bull view on Teradyne, Inc. (TER), in brief: Test demand has reported substance. On 2026-07-28, Teradyne reported second-quarter revenue of $1,329 million, up 104% year over year, including $1,122 million from Semiconductor Test. The company attributed record memory-test revenue to strength in dynamic random-access memory… The bear view: Guidance still implies sequential contraction. Both cases follow in full.

Bull Case

• Test demand has reported substance. On 2026-07-28, Teradyne reported second-quarter revenue of $1,329 million, up 104% year over year, including $1,122 million from Semiconductor Test. The company attributed record memory-test revenue to strength in dynamic random-access memory and renewed NAND flash final testing. Second-quarter results

• India expansion adds customer support. The 2026-09-14 announcement established a Bengaluru office for customer engagement, applications support and training. This adds operating infrastructure; the release disclosed no order value or revenue contribution that would justify raising the earnings case. India office announcement

Bear Case

• Guidance still implies sequential contraction. The 2026-07-28 outlook put third-quarter revenue at $1,200–1,300 million and adjusted earnings per share at $1.85–2.15, below second-quarter revenue and adjusted earnings of $2.47 per share. The recovery case therefore requires evidence beyond the reported growth rate. Company guidance

• Recovery has not erased weakness. The adjusted daily-bar snapshot dated 2026-09-18 records a three-month price decline of 18.7%. Its $371.47 close remains below the $418.79 resistance identified in the 2026-09-06 research note; the price-confirmation condition has not occurred.

Setup & Price Structure

The 2026-09-18 adjusted snapshot places the shares 23.2% below the $483.65 52-week high. RSI at 54.4 describes improved recent momentum, but neither trading volume nor a moving-average series is supplied, so accumulation and distance above a rising average cannot be established.

The supplied news record includes a retrospective investment-return article on 2026-09-10 and a stock-movement explainer on 2026-09-15. These establish continuing retail-format coverage, not measured investor flows. That sample is too small to support a crowding claim, and the supplied filing record contains no recent filing from which to assess insider activity or issuance.

Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)

• 2026-09-30 — Micron fiscal fourth-quarter results. Micron confirmed this date on 2026-08-26. Memory-demand commentary provides an upstream check; it cannot establish Teradyne’s customer orders or market share. Micron announcement

• ~2026-10-27, estimated — Teradyne third-quarter results. This later event is the direct test of the revenue outlook. The date remains an estimate from the 2026-09-06 note: Teradyne’s calendar checked on 2026-09-20 lists no upcoming event and does not confirm it. Company calendar

What Would Change Our Mind

Loss of the published downside boundary would end the recovery case: a weekly close below $296 invalidates the thesis. The threshold remains the research condition published on 2026-09-06; the available evidence does not establish it as a newly verified support shelf.

A weekly close above the previously identified $418.79 resistance would satisfy the price-recovery case. Separately, third-quarter revenue below the $1,200 million floor announced on 2026-07-28 would contradict management’s revenue outlook and weaken the demand argument. Company guidance

Correlation Notes

This is a single-name setup; no current theme cluster establishes a group move. Teradyne’s 2026-07-28 attribution of record memory-test revenue to memory demand explains the relevance of Micron’s scheduled 2026-09-30 report, but does not establish a stock-return correlation. The available observations cannot support the earlier note’s near-perfect correlation claim or show that stronger upstream demand necessarily reaches Teradyne’s earnings.