ASML · ASML Holding

The thesis

ASML Holding's shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. The company says its supply falls short of demand through 2028, but chip stocks are still being repriced on the risk to 2027 US data-centre spending. Nvidia's report on 17 November 2026 is the next test, and ASML's fourth-quarter report, expected around 27 January 2027, settles the case.

The shares closed at $1,497.12 on 12 November 2026, down from $1,534.42 on 11 November 2026. That close is 25.1% below the 52-week high of $1,999.96 set on 30 June 2026, and the shares are down 18.7% over three months in adjusted daily closes. ASML has issued no new guidance since its 14 October 2026 results.

The strongest new fact cuts against the cautious view. After the 12 November 2026 close, Applied Materials reported record fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $10.41 billion, up 53% from a year earlier, and guided first-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue to $11.1 billion, plus or minus $0.5 billion (Applied Materials 8-K). That midpoint sits above the roughly $10.7 billion analysts expected, investingLive reported on 12 November 2026. Applied gave no full-year 2027 outlook, so the spending question raised by the November sell-off stays open until Nvidia reports.

The rating is Low because the main risk to the case, the 2027 data-centre build-out after the US elections, has not been answered by any customer, and the shares remain below both their 50-day and 200-day moving averages. A strong Nvidia data-centre outlook on 17 November 2026 that lifts the shares back above those averages would show the cautious view is wrong.

Bullish and bearish views on ASML Holding N.V.

The bull case on ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), in brief: supply trails demand through 2028. The bear case: data-centre build-out risk is unresolved.

Bull case

• Supply trails demand through 2028. On 14 October 2026, ASML said planned supply for 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet customer demand and that it is studying capacity beyond its earlier 30% expansion (ASML Q3 2026 release).
• Memory makers are buying more EUV tools. ASML shares rose in premarket trading on 11 November 2026 on reports that Samsung and SK hynix are increasing their purchases of extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems, according to fiscal.ai. The shares closed at $1,534.42 that day, up from $1,507.85 on 10 November 2026.
• The largest peer guided above forecasts. Applied Materials guided first-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue to $11.1 billion, plus or minus $0.5 billion, on 12 November 2026, and said it expects its chip-equipment revenue to grow more than 40% in calendar 2026 (Applied Materials 8-K).
• A large fourth quarter is guided. ASML guided fourth-quarter 2026 sales to €14.2–15.2 billion at about 57% gross margin, after €11.7 billion in the third quarter, and narrowed its 2026 outlook to €44–45 billion (14 October 2026 release).
• The company bought heavily into the fall. ASML repurchased 125,000 shares on 5 November 2026 at an average €1,258.16, about €157.3 million (GlobeNewswire, 9 November 2026).
• Brokers still see upside. MarketBeat's consensus target was $2,204.71 from 24 firms on 9 November 2026 (MarketBeat). UBS kept a Buy rating and a €2,400 target on 27 October 2026, and Cantor Fitzgerald and HSBC named ASML among their top chip names on 9 November 2026, Benzinga reported.

Bear case

• Data-centre build-out risk is unresolved. Goldman Sachs estimated that about 45% of planned US data-centre expansion capacity could be affected after Democrats won governorships in Texas, Ohio and Georgia (Seoul Economic Daily, 6 November 2026). Bank of America said on 10 November 2026 that chip stocks need policy clarity first, Benzinga reported.
• The whole sector sold off. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 12.25% on 5 November 2026, Seoul Economic Daily reported, and ASML closed at $1,356.65 that day. Benzinga reported that 28 of the 30 largest holdings of the iShares Semiconductor ETF were at least 20% below their record highs.
• The rebound has stalled. The 12 November 2026 close of $1,497.12 sits below the 200-day moving average of $1,598.45 and the 50-day moving average of $1,662.10.
• The fourth quarter carries a heavy delivery load. The €14.2–15.2 billion guide is well above the €11.7 billion third quarter. Any shipment slipping into 2027 would show first at the January report.
• Labour dispute over the reorganisation. Dutch unions walked out of reorganisation talks on 10 November 2026, citing delayed timetables in Design & Engineering and IT; ASML disputes that formal consultation is required, ad-hoc-news reported.
• Order visibility is thinner. ASML stopped publishing quarterly net bookings in 2026, so the market gets no like-for-like order figure between reports.

Price setup

The shares closed at $1,356.65 on 5 November 2026, the low close of the sell-off. They rebounded to $1,424.75 on 6 November 2026 and $1,513.25 on 9 November 2026, then traded between $1,497.12 and $1,534.42 through 12 November 2026. The rebound has not reached either moving average.

The 200-day moving average of $1,598.45 is the first level above the last close, and the 50-day average of $1,662.10 sits above it, both as of 12 November 2026. The 29 October 2026 close of $1,675.70 is the highest of the past month. The 52-week high is $1,999.96 from 30 June 2026, and the 52-week closing low is $966.57 from 21 November 2025.

Market reaction to Applied Materials' report will show in the 13 November 2026 session. ASML directors file no Form 4 reports because the company is a foreign private issuer; the company itself was buying back shares through the drop.

Catalysts ahead

• 17 November 2026: Nvidia third-quarter fiscal 2027 report. Its data-centre guidance is the first major customer read on 2027 AI spending since the US elections, and so on demand for the leading-edge chips made with ASML's EUV tools.
• 10 January 2027: End of the BIS suspension of the Affiliates Rule, unless the government acts again. If the rule returns, more Chinese customers would face restrictions, which could cut ASML's China sales further.
• ~27 January 2027 (est.): ASML fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 report. It shows whether the €14.2–15.2 billion fourth quarter and €44–45 billion year were delivered, and gives the first formal 2027 outlook.

What would change the view

A daily close above $1,675.70, the 29 October 2026 close and the highest of the past month, would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong; so would ASML fourth-quarter 2026 sales above the €15.2 billion top of its guidance.

What it trades with

ASML trades with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and with other chip-equipment makers such as Applied Materials, Lam Research and KLA. Nvidia's results and TSMC's capital-spending plans move all of these companies together; TSMC kept its 2026 capital spending at $60–64 billion on 15 October 2026. The Nasdaq shares also move with the euro-dollar exchange rate, because ASML reports in euros and its primary listing is in Amsterdam.