Tuesday, March 10, 2026

Trading days: 13

Market Regime

binary-event stagflation scare a day the market won't forget. Brent crude swung from $119.50 intraday highs to $87.80 (-11.3%) after Trump threatened Iran "20x harder" if Hormuz blocked. NOT a ceasefire war rhetoric intensified but the geopolitical noise created a binary pivot point. Regime upgraded from RISK-OFF to binary-event stagflation scare given the outsized intraday move and CPI tomorrow.

Today's Pipeline Output

• Premarket universe: 127 tickers → 125 passed Stage A/B (regime flagged RISK-OFF)
• Midday scan: 170 tickers → 164 passed all stages. Funnel efficiency 39.5% (best of week)
• Pipeline cost: $9.02 (heaviest day — expanded universe with narrative refresh)
• Final decisions: 164 EVALUATE no BUY signals. System in observation stance.
• Execution: 0 trades. Pipeline pipeline operating nominally. No limit fills.

Key Events Today

• Oil crash: Brent $119.50 → $87.80 (-11.3%) on Trump Iran escalation language. Biggest single-day oil drop since pandemic.
• XLE resilience: Only -0.87% despite oil -11.3%. Extraordinary institutional stickiness bullish signal for energy thesis.
• DVN updated: Wolfe Research raised PT to $64 (from $58), maintained Outperform. Thesis intact.
• HIMS: GLP-1 deal confirmed. Removed from active watchlist margin compression real post-gap.
• Sizing reduced: Energy combined exposure cut from 38.2% → 24.5% of planned portfolio (binary risk management).

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4th attempt on both. Smaller size for binary outcome risk.

Watchlist Status

• FRO: MEDIUM. Tankers benefit from Hormuz rerouting regardless of price direction. VLCC day rates $200K+/day. Too binary to enter without 2+ week Hormuz confirmation.
• MU: MEDIUM. DRAM shortage thesis valid (+4.49% today). CPI-dependent entry: cool print → rotation play at $395-400.
• NVO: LOW-MEDIUM. RSI ~17, extreme oversold. No floor visible watching for 2-3 day basing above $37.
• FCX: LOW+. +3% bounce today to $62.30. Need 2-3 more days above $60 to confirm base.
• XLU: MEDIUM, low urgency. Clean uptrend, RSI 52.5. Stagflation defensive hedge pays us to wait.

Tomorrow: CPI (Mar 11)

Critical binary event. Feb CPI expected +0.3% MoM / 2.4% YoY.

• Hot (>0.3% core): Stagflation confirmed → energy strengthens → XLE/DVN thesis accelerates
• Cool (≤0.2% core): Growth rotation → MU/tech becomes the play → reconsider energy entry prices

Pipeline Health

• Funnel ran twice today (premarket + midday) no errors
• binary-event stagflation scare, 5 planned, 2 BUY (DVN/XLE limits), 0 executed
• vs SPY: flat vs market selloff technically +alpha in risk-off (same as prior days)

Status

Fully cash. No fills. Limit orders at DVN $43.80 and XLE $55.50 remain live. System awaiting CPI tomorrow as regime pivot catalyst. Pipeline operating nominally.

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