SNX · TD SYNNEX
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $287.35
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
17.3% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $287.35, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 9.8% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $287.35, back near the late-September 2026 prices set before the 24 September 2026 results, would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong; so would fiscal Q4 FY2026 revenue above the $22.6 billion top of guidance with positive operating cash flow.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Industrials
Quarter to 31 August 2026, filed 1 October 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 21,558
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +37.7
- Gross margin (%)
- 6.6
- Operating margin (%)
- 3.0
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −815
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −4,772
- Price to earnings (×)
- 14.3
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 0.3
All filed numbers
What TD SYNNEX reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 21,558 | +37.7 | 6.6 | 3.0 |
| first filed | 19,575 | +31.0 | 6.8 | 2.7 |
| first filed | 17,161 | +18.1 | 7.3 | 2.9 |
| first filed | 17,379 | +9.7 | 6.9 | 2.3 |
| first filed | 15,651 | +6.6 | 7.2 | 2.5 |
| first filed | 14,946 | +7.2 | 7.0 | 2.2 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 555 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 1,326 | 416 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 31 August 2025 | −3.0 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −618 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 197 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −815 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 749 |
| Debt ($M) non-current long-term debt and finance leases plus current debt | 5,522 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −4,772 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 14,954 |
| Inventory ($M) | 15,292 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 9,302 |
| Market value ($M) | 18,954 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 23,726 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 0.3 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 11.6 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 14.3 |
| Price to book value (×) | 2.0 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −4.3 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 2.4% of shares outstanding sold short, 2.5 days of average trading to cover, +3.2% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $3.8M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $41.4M |
The thesis
TD SYNNEX's Hyve server unit keeps earning above forecasts, but its growth is consuming cash and the company has just added term debt. The shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than to lead it over the next three months. The fiscal Q4 FY2026 report settles it by showing whether operating cash flow turns positive. MarketBeat estimates that report for 14 January 2027 and Yahoo Finance and TrendSpider for 7 January 2027. The company has not confirmed a date.
The shares have recovered part of the early-November fall. They closed at $240.86 on 11 November 2026, up from $215.37 on 5 November 2026, and rose 3.6% in the 11 November 2026 session, per GuruFocus. No company results, guidance or filing explains the rebound. Company news since 4 November 2026 consists of distribution agreements and a channel survey. The recovery leaves the cash question open.
In an 8-K signed 5 November 2026, TD SYNNEX disclosed a $1.75 billion senior unsecured term loan entered on 2 November 2026 and maturing 2 November 2029. About $750 million repaid the term loan due 1 September 2027. The rest goes to general corporate purposes, including acquisitions. The loan arrived after nine-month operating cash flow of negative $2.08 billion.
The price reflects a cooling of enthusiasm without a break in estimates. The 11 November 2026 close sits 19.4% below the 52-week intraday high of $298.77 set on 23 September 2026, while Zacks reported on 3 November 2026 that the current-year EPS consensus rose 2.3% over 30 days.
Bullish and bearish views on TD SYNNEX Corporation
The bull case on TD SYNNEX Corporation (SNX), in brief: guidance sits well above prior consensus. The bear case: growth is consuming cash.
Bull case
- Guidance sits well above prior consensus. On 24 September 2026 management guided fiscal Q4 revenue to $21.8–$22.6 billion and non-GAAP (adjusted) earnings per share (EPS) to $5.65–$6.15. Benzinga cited estimates of $19.363 billion and $4.87 that day.
- The last quarter beat clearly. Fiscal Q3 revenue, for the quarter ended 31 August 2026, was $21.558 billion, up 37.7% year over year. Non-GAAP diluted EPS was $5.68 against a $4.70 estimate, per the company's 8-K and Benzinga on 24 September 2026.
- Estimates rose while the price fell. Zacks reported on 3 November 2026 that the current-year EPS consensus rose 2.3% over 30 days, as the shares lost 19.9% over four weeks.
- Hyve's largest buyers are spending more. Amazon reported quarterly capital spending of $77.3 billion on 29 October 2026, against $35.1 billion a year earlier. Fortune reported on 28 October 2026 that Alphabet expects about $300 billion of capital spending in 2027.
- Analyst targets sit above the price. Investing.com shows an average 12-month target of $339.64 in November 2026, ranging from $287 to $379.
- The new loan extends maturities. The 2 November 2026 term loan swaps $750 million due 1 September 2027 for debt due 2 November 2029. It has no scheduled amortization and is priced at the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) plus 1.00% to 1.625%, per the 8-K.
Bear case
- Growth is consuming cash. The fiscal Q3 Form 10-Q shows nine-month operating cash flow to 31 August 2026 of negative $2.08 billion, against positive $71.3 million a year earlier. Fiscal Q3 alone was negative $916.7 million.
- Inventory and borrowings have grown. Inventory was $15.3 billion at 31 August 2026, up from $9.5 billion at 30 November 2025. Current borrowings rose to $1.93 billion from $1.02 billion over the same period.
- More debt, with acquisitions named. The 8-K signed 5 November 2026 says the remaining loan proceeds may fund acquisitions. The BlueStar purchase is pending while operating cash flow is negative.
- Margins are thin. Fiscal Q3 gross margin was 6.61% and non-GAAP operating margin 3.42%. A mix shift toward hyperscale server hardware moves EPS more than revenue growth does.
- Insiders sold in October. SEC Form 4 filings show open-market sales by Hyve chair Dennis Polk (3,955 shares at $251.27 on 21 October 2026), North America president Reyna Thompson (2,433 shares at an average $248.45 on 20 October 2026, under a Rule 10b5-1 plan) and HR chief Alim Dhanji (3,775 shares at an average $241.01 on 22 October 2026).
- Valuation models see the price as full. GuruFocus put its intrinsic value estimate at $200.29 against the $240.86 close of 11 November 2026.
Price setup
Adjusted daily closes trace the recent swing. The shares closed at $230.39 on 4 November 2026, fell to $215.37 on 5 November 2026 during the AI hardware sell-off, then rose on four straight sessions to $228.33 on 9 November 2026, $232.50 on 10 November 2026 and $240.86 on 11 November 2026.
The 11 November 2026 close sits above the 200-day moving average of $228.52 and below the 50-day moving average of $256.19. The shares are down 5.2% over three months. A recovery through the 50-day average would put the late-October insider sale prices, between $241 and $252, behind the shares; staying below it keeps the price inside the range set since the 5 November 2026 low.
The 52-week intraday high is $298.77 from 23 September 2026, the session before the fiscal Q3 report. The 52-week closing low is $142.42 from 20 November 2025.
Catalysts ahead
- ~24 November 2026 (est.): Dell's fiscal third-quarter FY2027 report; Dell guided the quarter to about $49 billion of revenue. It is the next outside read on AI server demand and margins for the hardware group TD SYNNEX shares trade with.
- 30 November 2026: Fiscal Q4 FY2026 quarter end. Inventory, borrowings and operating cash flow are measured at this date; they show whether the working-capital build reversed, though figures publish only in January.
- ~7 January 2027 (est.): Fiscal Q4 FY2026 results; Yahoo Finance and TrendSpider list 7 January 2027, MarketBeat 14 January 2027. Tests the $21.8B-$22.6B revenue and $5.65-$6.15 EPS guidance, and whether operating cash flow turns positive.
What would change the view
A daily close above $287.35, back near the late-September 2026 prices set before the 24 September 2026 results, would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong; so would fiscal Q4 FY2026 revenue above the $22.6 billion top of guidance with positive operating cash flow.
What it trades with
The shares trade with AI server makers. On 5 November 2026 they fell alongside Dell, Hewlett Packard Enterprise and Super Micro, which 24/7 Wall St. reported down 10–12% in a post-midterm sell-off in AI hardware. Hyve's demand depends on hyperscale spending at Amazon and Alphabet, so their capital-spending guidance moves the shares as well.
Amazon holds a warrant for up to 3,238,066 TD SYNNEX shares, of which 3,022,195 carry a $191.10 strike and vest on purchase-volume thresholds. The core distribution business still follows the PC and enterprise IT cycle. The shares are exposed both to AI hardware sentiment and to general IT demand.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- TD SYNNEX entered a $1.75B senior unsecured term loan maturing 2 November 2029; about $750M repaid the term loan due 1 September 2027, with the rest for general corporate purposes including acquisitions. TD SYNNEX Form 8-K, signed 5 November 2026 · as of
- Nine-month operating cash flow was −$2.08B versus $71.3M provided a year earlier; Q3 operating cash flow was −$916.7M. TD SYNNEX Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q and 8-K press release · as of
- Inventory was $15.3B at 31 August 2026 versus $9.5B at 30 November 2025; current borrowings were $1.93B versus $1.02B. TD SYNNEX Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q, filed 1 October 2026 · as of
- Q3 FY2026 revenue was $21.56B against $15.65B a year earlier; non-GAAP diluted EPS was $5.68. TD SYNNEX Q3 FY2026 press release (8-K exhibit 99.1) and 10-Q · as of
- Fiscal Q4 FY2026 guidance: revenue $21.8B-$22.6B and non-GAAP diluted EPS $5.65-$6.15, versus estimates of $19.363B and $4.87. TD SYNNEX Q3 FY2026 press release; Benzinga, 24 September 2026 · as of
- The current-year EPS consensus rose 2.3% over 30 days while the shares lost 19.9% over four weeks. Zacks via Yahoo Finance, 3 November 2026 · as of
- Hyve chair Dennis Polk sold 3,955 shares at $251.27 on 21 October 2026; CHRO Alim Dhanji sold 3,775 shares at an average $241.01 on 22 October 2026. SEC Form 4 filings dated 22 October 2026 and 23 October 2026 · as of
- Shares rose 3.6% on 11 November 2026 to close at $240.86; GuruFocus's intrinsic value estimate was $200.29. GuruFocus, 11 November 2026 · as of
Sources
- TD SYNNEX CORP - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- TD SYNNEX CORP - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov
- Here's Why TD SYNNEX (SNX) is Poised for a Turnaround After Losing 19.9% in 4 Weeks · finance.yahoo.com ·
- Dell Sinks 12%, Hewlett Packard Enterprise and Super Micro Tumble 10% as Post-Midterm Sell-Off Hits AI Hardware · 247wallst.com ·
- A Look at TD Synnex Corp (SNX) After 3.6% Gain -- GF Value $200.29 vs Price $240.86 · gurufocus.com
- TD Synnex Corp (SNX) · investing.com
- TD SYNNEX (SNX) Stock Price, News & Analysis $SNX · marketbeat.com
- pulse2.com
Related · shared themes
CEG
Constellation Energy
Constellation Energy's third-quarter beat and raised $12.50–$12.80 guidance make its shares modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P…
FPS
Forgent Power Solutions
Forgent Power Solutions is modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months, after beating guidance and guiding fiscal…
TXN
Texas Instruments
Texas Instruments' analog upturn, driven by data-center demand and pricing that lifted third-quarter 2026 revenue 28%, gives the shares a…
VST
Vistra
Vistra Corp. shares lean toward beating the S&P 500 on 2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $7.7–8.5 billion. Texas data-center policy settles…