TTAN · ServiceTitan
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $100.64
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
17.9% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $100.64, on record since 10 November 2026. The shares are down 6.5% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $100.64, the highest close of the last 63 sessions (27 August 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 31 July 2026, filed 8 September 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 293
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +20.9
- Gross margin (%)
- 71.4
- Operating margin (%)
- −9.4
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 137
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- 1.7
All filed numbers
What ServiceTitan reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 293 | +20.9 | 71.4 | −9.4 |
| first filed | 269 | +24.6 | 72.1 | −9.6 |
| first filed | 254 | +21.4 | 69.9 | −16.8 |
| first filed | 249 | +25.0 | 70.8 | −16.9 |
| first filed | 242 | +25.5 | 70.8 | −14.4 |
| first filed | 216 | +26.6 | 68.8 | −23.0 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −23.5 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −129 | −24.9 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 31 July 2025 | +4.6 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 141 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 4.0 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 137 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 480 |
| Debt ($M) | Not available |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | Not available |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +0.6% on a year | 17.4 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | 527 |
| Receivables ($M) | 69.9 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 1,606 |
| Market value ($M) | 7,919 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not available |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 4.9 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 1.7 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 8.7% of shares outstanding sold short, 4.8 days of average trading to cover, +19.4% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $11.4M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $77.9M |
The thesis
ServiceTitan still grows revenue above 20% with widening margins, but slowing transaction volume and a third-quarter revenue guide below the second quarter's actual leave the shares more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. The fiscal third-quarter report, now confirmed for 3 December 2026 after the market close, decides whether the slowdown is temporary.
The company sells software that runs plumbing, heating, electrical and other home-trade contractors. For the quarter ended 31 July 2026, reported on 8 September 2026, revenue rose 21% to $292.8 million and free cash flow reached $50.5 million against $34.3 million a year earlier. Gross transaction volume (GTV), the dollar value of contractor jobs processed through the platform, grew 17% to $26.8 billion. GTV growth is the part of the case that weakened.
The shares closed at $81.62 on 27 October 2026 and $82.52 on 9 November 2026. The only new company item is the 5 November 2026 announcement of the report date. The story is well known: the AI-agent story is well known, and the last product news was the 6 October 2026 Pantheon 2026 launch.
Bullish and bearish views on ServiceTitan, Inc.
The bull case on ServiceTitan, Inc. (TTAN), in brief: profitability is improving quickly. The bear case: transaction volume growth slowed.
Bull case
- Profitability is improving quickly. Non-GAAP operating income was $44.4 million in the July quarter, a 15.2% margin, against $29.2 million a year earlier (company 8-K, 8 September 2026).
- Usage revenue is a second engine. Usage revenue reached $72.1 million and subscription revenue $212.4 million in fiscal Q2 2027 (company results, 8 September 2026).
- The AI product is broadly available. On 6 October 2026 the company opened its Max package to every residential in-home contractor and launched the Atlas mobile app and Homh, a service that makes contractors bookable through AI assistants (GlobeNewswire release).
- The partner network keeps widening. On 30 September 2026 ServiceTitan announced an integration with Ramp, adding AI-driven bill pay and expense management (Benzinga).
- Analyst targets sit above the price. TD Cowen reiterated Buy with a $100 target on 7 October 2026, and BTIG reiterated Buy with a $110 target on 2 October 2026 (Benzinga).
- Cash is ample. Cash and equivalents were $479.5 million at 31 July 2026 (fiscal Q2 8-K).
Bear case
- Transaction volume growth slowed. GTV grew 17% in fiscal Q2 2027, and management said on the 8 September 2026 call that it lacked clarity on what drove consumer lead volume.
- The next quarter guides down sequentially. Fiscal Q3 revenue is guided to $285 million to $287 million, below the $292.8 million just reported, and non-GAAP operating income to $29 million to $30 million, below $44.4 million (8 September 2026 8-K).
- Expansion was paused to fund Max. The company paused its push into new commercial trades and residential exteriors to concentrate on Max, which delays revenue from those markets.
- The shares sit well below the high. The close of $82.52 on 9 November 2026 is 25.2% under the 52-week high of $110.31, and the three-month price change is −10.3% (adjusted daily closes).
- Some targets were cut after the September report. Benzinga's target listing shows Citigroup cutting its target to $76 in September 2026 and Canaccord lowering its target to $90.
Price setup
The last close was $82.52 on 9 November 2026. The 52-week high is $110.31, and the 14-day relative strength index, a momentum gauge on a 0-to-100 scale, reads 53.1, which is neutral. The shares have recovered from the $72.69 close on 14 October 2026 and have moved little since the 27 October 2026 close of $81.62.
Crowding evidence is limited. CNBC's Halftime Report named ServiceTitan among its final trades on 7 October 2026, but the shares are not extended above a rising moving average. The one crowding factor that can be observed is timing: the earnings report is 23 days away, so the next large move is likely to come from the 3 December 2026 results.
Catalysts ahead
- 3 December 2026: Fiscal Q3 2027 results after the close, call at 2:00 p.m. Pacific Time. Shows whether revenue beats the $285 million to $287 million guide, whether GTV growth holds near 17%, and how Max enrollment compares with the 700-location year-end target.
What would change the view
A daily close above $100.64, the highest close of the last 63 sessions (27 August 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong.
What it trades with
ServiceTitan trades with application-software peers such as Shopify and PTC when investors worry that AI agents displace seat-based software. Its usage revenue also follows US home-services demand, so housing-related data and consumer spending on repairs matter to GTV. A move in the shares that matches peers without company news points to sector sentiment.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Fiscal Q2 2027 revenue was $292.8 million, up 21% year over year; subscription revenue $212.4 million, usage revenue $72.1 million. ServiceTitan fiscal Q2 2027 results and 8-K · as of
- Gross transaction volume was $26.8 billion in fiscal Q2 2027, up 17% year over year. ServiceTitan fiscal Q2 2027 results · as of
- Non-GAAP operating income was $44.4 million (15.2% margin) versus $29.2 million a year earlier; free cash flow was $50.5 million versus $34.3 million. ServiceTitan fiscal Q2 2027 8-K · as of
- Fiscal Q3 2027 guidance is revenue of $285 million to $287 million and non-GAAP operating income of $29 million to $30 million; full-year revenue guidance is $1.139 billion to $1.144 billion. ServiceTitan fiscal Q2 2027 8-K · as of
- ServiceTitan will report fiscal Q3 2027 results on 3 December 2026 after the market close, with a call at 2:00 p.m. Pacific Time. ServiceTitan press release, 5 November 2026 · as of
- Cash and equivalents were $479.5 million at quarter end. ServiceTitan fiscal Q2 2027 8-K · as of
- TD Cowen reiterated Buy with a $100 price target. Benzinga · as of
- BTIG reiterated Buy with a $110 price target. Benzinga · as of
Sources
- Finviz
- ServiceTitan Q2 earnings call highlights · nasdaq.com
- ServiceTitan Announces Fiscal Second Quarter Financial Results · finviz.com
Related · shared themes
APPN
Appian
Appian's third-quarter 2026 revenue rose 25% to $234.6 million and full-year guidance went up again, giving the shares a modest edge over…
ZETA
Zeta Global Holdings
Zeta Global's shares hold a modest edge over the S&P 500 after the company beat its third-quarter guide and raised 2026 revenue guidance to…
GTLB
GitLab
GitLab's case is that Flex, its usage-based pricing for AI coding agents, lifts fiscal Q3 revenue above the $281–$283 million guidance. The…
KVYO
Klaviyo
Klaviyo's third-quarter revenue beat, raised 2026 guidance and new $300 million buyback make its shares modestly likely to beat the S&P…
See also · stocks to watch