ZETA · Zeta Global Holdings
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a daily close below $32.42
Note written ·
In the portfolio Since : −2.9% from the average price paid for its shares, 2.1 percentage points behind the S&P 500 from the minute it was bought. See the portfolio.
Why it was bought
Bought 11 November 2026 on results. The fact behind it, dated 9 November 2026: Q3 2026 results: revenue +46% to $492.7 million, +30% excluding Marigold and political revenue (28% in Q2), free cash flow +73% to $81.5 million, and full-year revenue guidance raised to $1.853–1.857 billion from $1.811–1.824 billion.
Price against the kill line
13.0% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close below $32.42, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 27.1% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close below $32.42, the 9 November 2026 close before the third-quarter report, which would erase the post-results gain. Fourth-quarter revenue below the $521 million low end of guidance would also break the case.
The portfolio's case
Zeta's organic growth is accelerating: Q3 revenue +46% to $492.7 million, +30% excluding Marigold and political (28% in Q2), super-scaled customer ARPU growth 22% from 17%, free cash flow +73% to $81.5 million. Q4 is guided to 23% organic with a stated 2–5% cushion, and Palantir and OpenAI work is minimal in guidance. At roughly 5x 2026 sales the price assumes 20% organic growth, not 28–30%.
The portfolio sells if one of these comes true
- Organic revenue growth (excluding M&A and political) falls below 20% in any quarter, or the initial 2027 guide implies less than 18% organic growth after the cushion.
- Q4 2026 revenue lands below the $521 million low end of guidance, or super-scaled customer ARPU growth drops below 10%.
- Palantir and OpenAI produce no disclosed revenue or super-scaled customers by the Q1 2027 report, or net share issuance exceeds 3% of shares outstanding in a year.
It can also sell when that day's research finds the stock fully priced, for a clearly better use of the money, to limit risk in the portfolio, on the weekly review's plan, when a cash takeover pays the shares out or at the end set for a shorter trade when it was bought. A close through the kill line (on a weekly line, a weekly close) means the note's call is wrong: the note is re-read, and the portfolio reads the new note at its next decision. The price alone never sells.
The business · as of
Zeta Global sells a cloud marketing platform that combines consumer data and AI so large companies can find, target and keep customers through email, ads and other channels; it earns platform subscription and usage fees. Revenue was $492.7 million in the quarter to 30 September 2026.
What is changing, and what follows · as of
- What is changing now
- On 9 November 2026 Zeta reported third-quarter revenue of $492.7 million, up 46% from a year earlier, and raised 2026 revenue guidance to $1.853 billion–$1.857 billion from $1.811 billion–$1.824 billion.
- What follows for the company
- Operating margin rose to 9.3% in the quarter to 30 September 2026 from 2.6% a year earlier, and free cash flow reached $260 million over four quarters; the diluted share count rose 19.0% from a year earlier.
- What follows for its customers, suppliers and competitors
- Zeta competes for enterprise marketing budgets with Salesforce (CRM), Adobe (ADBE) and Oracle (ORCL); its Palantir (PLTR) partnership had no disclosed revenue in the 9 November 2026 results.
What the price assumes · as of
At the 13 November 2026 close (filed inputs to 9 November 2026) the shares trade at 244.1 times earnings, 155.2 times operating profit and 5.6 times sales, for an enterprise value of $9,603 million and a 2.7% free-cash-flow yield; that holds only if revenue keeps growing above 20% excluding acquisitions while the operating margin keeps widening from the 9.3% of the quarter to 30 September 2026.
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 9 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 493
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +46.1
- Gross margin (%)
- 60.3
- Operating margin (%)
- 9.3
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 260
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 96.1
- Price to earnings (×)
- 244.1
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 5.6
All filed numbers
What Zeta Global Holdings reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 493 | +46.1 | 60.3 | 9.3 |
| first filed | 443 | +43.5 | 59.1 | 3.8 |
| first filed | 396 | +49.9 | 59.0 | −4.8 |
| first filed | 395 | +25.4 | 59.5 | 4.5 |
| first filed | 337 | +25.7 | 60.5 | 2.6 |
| first filed | 308 | +35.4 | 62.1 | −1.7 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 42.3 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 39.7 | 38.3 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +19.0 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 274 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 14.1 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 260 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 340 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 244 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 96.1 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +893.2% on a year | 40.1 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 370 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 998 |
| Market value ($M) | 9,699 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 9,603 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 5.6 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 155.2 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 244.1 |
| Price to book value (×) | 9.7 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 2.7 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 6.1% of shares outstanding sold short, 2.6 days of average trading to cover, +15.2% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $400K |
Linked companies · as of
The thesis
Zeta Global's shares hold a modest edge over the S&P 500 for the next three months because the company beat its third-quarter revenue guide and raised its full-year outlook on 9 November 2026. The fourth-quarter report, expected in February 2027, settles whether revenue clears the $521 million–$525 million guide and how fast management says organic growth runs in 2027.
Third-quarter revenue was $492.7 million, per the company's 8-K. That is 46% more than a year earlier, and 30% more excluding the acquired Marigold business and political-candidate revenue. Management had guided $469 million–$472 million on 4 August 2026. Wire headlines put the analyst estimate at $474.2 million.
The rating is medium because the beat and raise are filed facts and profit is now turning up, while the shares trade at 155.2 times operating profit and above two analysts' $33 targets. The market has already paid for part of the third-quarter news: the shares closed at $31.03 on 6 November 2026 and $36.65 on 13 November 2026.
Bullish and bearish views on Zeta Global Holdings Corp.
The bull case on Zeta Global Holdings Corp. (ZETA), in brief: revenue beat the guide by a wide margin. The bear case: growth steps down from here.
Bull case
- Revenue beat the guide by a wide margin. Third-quarter revenue of $492.7 million compared with guidance of $469 million–$472 million. The 10-Q filed 9 November 2026 shows $337.17 million in the same quarter a year earlier.
- Full-year guidance rose again. The 9 November 2026 release lifted 2026 revenue guidance to $1.853 billion–$1.857 billion from $1.811 billion–$1.824 billion, against a $1.820 billion analyst estimate (wire headline). The company now guides 27% growth excluding mergers, acquisitions and political-candidate revenue.
- Fourth-quarter guide sits above estimates. The company guided revenue of $521 million–$525 million against a $504.9 million analyst estimate (wire headline, 9 November 2026), and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of $135.2 million–$136.3 million.
- Margins and cash are widening. The 10-Q shows an operating margin of 9.3% in the quarter to 30 September 2026, against 2.6% a year earlier, and $260 million of free cash flow over the four quarters to that date. Full-year GAAP earnings per share guidance rose to $0.22–$0.24 from $0.09–$0.11 (company release, 9 November 2026).
- Large customers are spending more. Zeta counted 212 super-scaled customers, up 18%, with average revenue per user of $2.0 million, up 22%, in the quarter ended 30 September 2026 (8-K).
- Most analysts raised targets after the report. On 10 November 2026 RBC Capital's target rose to $41, Truist's to $40, B. Riley's to $39 and Citigroup's to $38, all with Buy-equivalent ratings (company news headlines). Citi reiterated its Buy rating and $38 target on 12 November 2026.
Bear case
- Growth steps down from here. The fourth-quarter guide implies 22%–24% growth excluding mergers, acquisitions and political-candidate revenue, against 30% on that basis in the third quarter (company release, 9 November 2026). Earnings Whispers reported on 9 November 2026 that management previewed starting the 2027 organic guide near its historical 20%–21%.
- Acquired revenue flatters the headline. Third-quarter revenue included $48.0 million from Marigold's enterprise business and $7.4 million from political candidates (8-K). Full-year growth is guided at 42% reported against 27% excluding those items.
- The valuation needs margins to keep rising. At the 13 November 2026 close the shares trade at 244.1 times trailing earnings and 155.2 times trailing operating profit (filed inputs to 9 November 2026). Operating margin was negative as recently as the quarter to 31 March 2026, at −4.8%.
- Two analysts sit below the price. Morgan Stanley kept Equal-Weight with a $33 target on 11 November 2026, and Freedom Broker kept Hold while raising its target to $33 on 13 November 2026 (company news headlines), both under the $36.65 close of 13 November 2026.
- Dilution continues. The diluted share count rose 19.0% from a year earlier in the quarter to 30 September 2026 (10-Q). Repurchases were $85.5 million in the nine months to 30 September 2026, and the chief accounting officer received a grant of 50,309 shares on 13 November 2026 (SEC Form 4).
- Senior executives converted options before the report. On 22 October 2026 the chief executive exercised options on 394,387 shares, the president on 226,512 and the chief financial officer on 199,155, each settling part with the company at $33.52 (SEC Form 4 filings, 23 October 2026).
- Short-seller allegations remain open. Culper Research's 13 November 2024 report alleged consent-farmed data and revenue inflation; related securities class actions are pending.
Price setup
The shares closed at $36.65 on 13 November 2026. That session set a 52-week intraday high of $38.80, and the close finished 5.5% below it. On adjusted daily closes through 13 November 2026, the 50-day moving average is $32.14 and the 200-day moving average is $23.13. The three-month price change is 27.1%, from a $28.83 close on 17 August 2026. The 52-week closing low is $14.55 from 27 March 2026.
The post-results move came in two sessions: closes of $35.07 on 10 November 2026 and $37.74 on 11 November 2026, the highest close of the past year. The shares then closed lower on 12 November 2026 ($37.27) and 13 November 2026 ($36.65), even as the intraday high was reset. The pre-report close of 9 November 2026 sits close to the 50-day moving average, so a return there would mean the market has handed back the whole post-results gain.
A close above $37.74 would mark a new closing high for the year. The price already reflects the beat and the raised outlook; the next leg of evidence is the fourth-quarter result and the first formal 2027 guide.
Catalysts ahead
- ~February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results. Tests revenue against the $521 million–$525 million guide and organic growth against the 22%–24% guide, and gives the first formal 2027 outlook against the 20%–21% organic level management previewed; the company has not announced the date.
What would change the view
A daily close below $32.42, the 9 November 2026 close before the third-quarter report, which would erase the post-results gain. Fourth-quarter revenue below the $521 million low end of guidance would also break the case.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- Organic growth slows faster than guided as acquired and political revenue fade. Confirmed by: quarterly revenue growth excluding mergers, acquisitions and political-candidate revenue below 20%, or an initial 2027 guide implying less than 18% organic growth.
- Large-customer spending growth stalls. Confirmed by: super-scaled customer average revenue per user growth below 10% at a quarterly report.
- Margin gains stall, leaving the operating-profit multiple unsupported. Confirmed by: a fourth-quarter 2026 operating margin below the 9.3% reported for the quarter to 30 September 2026.
- Partnership publicity fails to convert into disclosed enterprise revenue. Confirmed by: no disclosed Palantir- or OpenAI-linked revenue or super-scaled customers by the first-quarter 2027 report.
- Share issuance and stock compensation offset buybacks and weigh on per-share results. Confirmed by: net share issuance above 3% of shares outstanding in a year, or a filing reporting shares issued under the 11 September 2026 prospectus.
- Short-seller allegations resurface through litigation or regulators. Confirmed by: an adverse ruling in the pending securities class actions or a regulatory inquiry into Zeta's data practices disclosed in a filing.
What it trades with
Zeta trades with AI enterprise software and digital-advertising technology stocks. BofA raised targets on 10 software stocks on 20 August 2026 as fears of AI disruption eased, so sector sentiment on AI spending moves the shares alongside company results. Advertising-technology peers such as AppLovin (APP) report in the same weeks, and their guidance can move Zeta without company news. Political-candidate revenue ties part of Zeta's results to the United States election calendar, which lifts 2026 and leaves a harder comparison for 2027.
Caveats
- Culper Research's short report alleged consent-farmed data and revenue inflation at Zeta Global; related securities class actions have followed. Culper Research short report, 13 November 2024 · as of
- Reported 2026 revenue growth includes the acquired Marigold enterprise business and political-candidate revenue; guided 2026 growth is 42% reported and 27% excluding those items. Zeta third-quarter 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1), 9 November 2026 · as of
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter revenue was $492.7 million, up 46% from a year earlier and 30% excluding Marigold and political-candidate revenue; GAAP net income $38.3 million; adjusted EBITDA $121.0 million; free cash flow $81.5 million. Zeta Q3 2026 results 8-K, Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Full-year 2026 revenue guidance raised to $1.853 billion–$1.857 billion from $1.811 billion–$1.824 billion; fourth-quarter revenue guide $521 million–$525 million. Zeta Q3 2026 results 8-K, Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Operating margin was 9.3% in the quarter to 30 September 2026, against 2.6% a year earlier; free cash flow over the four quarters to that date was $260 million. Form 10-Q for the period ended 30 September 2026 (SEC XBRL) · as of
- Full-year GAAP earnings per share guidance raised to $0.22–$0.24 from $0.09–$0.11, against a $0.12 analyst estimate. Company news headline, 9 November 2026 · as of
- Super-scaled customers were 212, up 18%; their average revenue per user was $2.0 million, up 22%. Zeta Q3 2026 results 8-K, Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Management previewed starting the 2027 organic revenue growth guide near its historical 20%–21%, after roughly 27% in 2026. Earnings Whispers analysis on Finviz, 9 November 2026 · as of
- RBC Capital raised its target to $41, Truist to $40, B. Riley to $39 and Citigroup to $38; Morgan Stanley kept Equal-Weight with a $33 target; Freedom Broker kept Hold and raised its target to $33. Company news headlines, 10 November to 13 November 2026 · as of
- On 22 October 2026 the CEO exercised options on 394,387 shares, the president on 226,512 and the CFO on 199,155, each settling part with the company at $33.52. SEC Form 4 filings, filed 23 October 2026 · as of
Sources
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