RBRK · Rubrik

The thesis

Rubrik shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. The business grew subscription annual recurring revenue (ARR) 33% in its last reported quarter, but the shares fell in the November security-software sell-off and have not recovered. The fiscal third-quarter report on 30 November 2026, decides whether another guidance raise brings buyers back.

The shares closed at $109.26 on 11 November 2026, below the 50-day moving average of $112.92 and 21.9% below the $139.92 intraday 52-week high of 28 October. The fall came on 5 November, when the shares closed at $105.74, down from $118.99 the day before. Benzinga tied that day's drop in CrowdStrike and its peers, Rubrik among them, to fears of stricter AI regulation after the midterm elections. Rubrik announced on 11 November that it will report after the market closes on Monday, 30 November.

The price already reflects a lot of growth. MarketBeat put Rubrik's market value at $22.66 billion on 12 November 2026, against the company's fiscal 2027 revenue guidance of $1,685–$1,693 million and non-GAAP earnings guidance of $0.47–$0.53 per share. The rating is Low because the last beat-and-raise in August was followed by a fall in the shares, and sector news has set their direction since 28 October.

Bullish and bearish views on Rubrik, Inc.

The bull case on Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK), in brief: recurring revenue keeps compounding. The bear case: selling has spread across the sector.

Bull case

• Recurring revenue keeps compounding. Rubrik's 27 August 2026 release reported subscription ARR of $1.66 billion at 31 July, up 33% year over year, and quarterly revenue of $427.3 million, up 38%.
• Guidance rose on every metric. On 27 August 2026, the company raised fiscal 2027 guidance to subscription ARR of $1,880–$1,885 million, revenue of $1,685–$1,693 million and free cash flow of $323–$333 million.
• Estimates proved far too low last quarter. MarketBeat recorded second-quarter earnings of $0.20 per share against a $0.04 consensus, and revenue of $427.26 million against $396.30 million.
• Analysts keep raising targets. Mizuho raised its target to $125 from $112 on 12 November 2026, and kept its Outperform rating. Morgan Stanley started coverage at Overweight with a $155 target on 29 October, and Wedbush raised its target to $150 from $120 on 26 October. MarketBeat's consensus target was $118.50 on 12 November, from 30 Buy ratings and one Sell.
• Breaches feed demand for recovery products. Wedbush argued on 30 October 2026 that the Binance and Polymarket breaches favour Rubrik, which sells backup, recovery and data security. On 10 November the company announced expanded cyber recovery for Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud.

Bear case

• Selling has spread across the sector. Benzinga listed Rubrik down 6.96% after hours on 28 October 2026, after Fortinet cut its full-year service revenue forecast. The shares then closed down 11.14% on 5 November.
• Policy fear sits outside company control. Benzinga blamed the 5 November sell-off on concern over AI regulation after the midterms. Rubrik's first chance to answer with its own numbers is the 30 November report.
• Beat-and-raise has not been enough. The shares fell after the 27 August 2026 report even though the company beat estimates and raised its outlook. Seeking Alpha's report on that fall cited analysts saying the value appeared mostly priced in.
• The next quarter guides flat. Rubrik guided third-quarter revenue to $429–$431 million on 27 August 2026, against $427.3 million in the second quarter, and non-GAAP earnings to $0.07–$0.09 per share.
• Insiders keep selling under plans. SEC Form 4 filings show Chief Technology Officer Arvind Nithrakashyap sold 38,460 Class A shares on 2–4 November 2026 at an average of $117.39, after selling the same number on 5–7 October at an average of $124.32. Director John Thompson sold 13,500 shares on 2 November at an average of $117.27. All sales ran under Rule 10b5-1 pre-arranged trading plans.

Price setup

Adjusted daily closes show the shares at $118.99 on 4 November, $105.74 on 5 November and $105.75 on 6 November. They bounced to $111.22 on 9 November and closed at $109.26 on 11 November. The three-month change is 4.0%, from a $105.09 close on 13 August.

The 50-day moving average of $112.92 sits just above the last close; a close back over it, and then over the $118.99 close of 4 November, would mark a recovery from the November drop. The 200-day moving average of $78.46 sits far below, a record of the rise from the 52-week closing low of $43.81 on 10 April 2026. The $139.92 intraday high of 28 October is the top of the range.

Insiders sold at prices between $114.17 and $122.82 on 2–4 November, per SEC Form 4 filings, so plan selling has met the shares in the same range they now need to regain.

Catalysts ahead

• ~19 November 2026 (est.): Palo Alto Networks fiscal Q1 report. Shows whether Fortinet's 28 October forecast cut reflects weaker security budgets across the sector or one vendor's problem, which sets the tone for Rubrik's own report.
• 30 November 2026: Rubrik Q3 fiscal 2027 earnings report, after the market close. Shows whether subscription ARR growth holds near 33% and whether full-year ARR guidance rises above $1,885 million, the result that would show the shares able to lead again.

What would change the view

A daily close above $136.00, just under the $139.92 intraday 52-week high of 28 October 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; so would full-year subscription ARR guidance raised above the $1,885 million top of the current range.

What it trades with

Rubrik trades with high-multiple security and AI software. Benzinga listed it on 28 October 2026 beside SailPoint (down 9.78%), Palo Alto Networks (down 6.66%) and CrowdStrike (down 6.05%) after hours, and again on 5 November beside CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks and Palantir. MarketBeat showed a beta, the measure of sensitivity to the broad market, of 1.12 on 2 November. Until the 30 November report, peer results are likely to set the direction of the shares; a rise in Rubrik on a day of sector weakness would show that view is wrong.