HIMX · Himax Technologies
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $10.64
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
18.8% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $10.64, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 43.9% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $10.64, over the $10.44 close of 4 November 2026 that preceded the guidance, which would show the shares recovering the post-report loss and leading. A Q4 2026 revenue decline smaller than the 22% low end of the guide would also show that.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Filed figures are not available: no quarterly report in US GAAP with the SEC (a foreign filer reports on Form 20-F or 40-F).
All filed numbers
What Himax Technologies reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): the share of shares outstanding is not available, 2.5 days of average trading to cover, −6.6% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $0 |
The thesis
Himax Technologies' shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. On 5 November 2026 the company guided Q4 2026 revenue down 22% to 26% from Q3 on an automotive order cut, and the Q4 report, expected around February 2027, settles whether the setback is temporary.
The market has priced part of that cut. The shares closed at $10.44 on 4 November 2026 and $7.68 on 5 November 2026, the day of the report. They closed at $9.09 on 11 November 2026, still 63.8% below the 52-week intraday high of $25.09 set on 2 June 2026. The 3-month change is −38.0%, and the close sits under both the 50-day average of $12.61 and the 200-day average of $12.68 (adjusted daily closes).
Q3 itself was acceptable. Revenue was $246.8 million, up 8.5% from Q2 and inside the 7–11% guided range. Gross margin was 34.2% against guidance of about 34%. Profit was 10.7 cents per diluted American depositary share (ADS), above the 8.0–10.0 cents guided (Himax Q3 results release, 5 November 2026).
The Q4 outlook is the break. Management said certain panel makers with heavy exposure to Chinese automakers' export programs cut Q4 forecasts sharply after China's early-October holidays. It called the correction temporary and said it is "quite confident" of double-digit revenue growth in 2027 on flat global vehicle shipments. It did not offer that as formal guidance (Q3 earnings call, 5 November 2026).
Bullish and bearish views on Himax Technologies, Inc.
The bull case on Himax Technologies, Inc. (HIMX), in brief: Q3 beat the profit guide. The bear case: Q4 revenue is guided sharply lower.
Bull case
- Q3 beat the profit guide. Revenue of $246.8 million rose 8.5% sequentially and profit of 10.7 cents per diluted ADS exceeded the 8.0–10.0 cent guide. Himax attributed the beat to lower operating expenses (Q3 release, 5 November 2026).
- Non-driver products are growing. Non-driver revenue was $51.0 million, up 11.2% sequentially and 20.7% of Q3 revenue. Management expects the group to approach about 30% of revenue in 2027 (Q3 call, 5 November 2026).
- Smart-glasses designs are widening. Himax said Alibaba's Qwen Glasses N1, announced publicly on 14 October 2026, use its WiseEye chip as an always-on vision engine, and it cited a second global technology company's AI glasses. It expects numerous smart-glasses projects to enter mass production from 2027 (Q3 call, 5 November 2026).
- Optics projects have dated milestones. Partner FOCI's board approved about NT$3.33 billion (roughly US$100 million) of capital spending. Himax expects co-packaged optics (CPO) to contribute meaningfully from 2027. A leading technology company also chose Himax's wafer-level optics for an automotive sensing system (Q3 release, 5 November 2026).
- A new sensor product is shipping soon. Himax opened pre-orders for its WiseGuard smart sensor evaluation kit through DigiKey on 3 November 2026, with module shipments expected from mid-November 2026 (Himax announcement via Finviz).
Bear case
- Q4 revenue is guided sharply lower. Himax expects Q4 revenue to fall 22% to 26% sequentially, which would undo more than the whole Q3 gain of 8.5% (Q3 release, 5 November 2026).
- Q4 profit guidance is far below Q3. Himax guided 4.5–6.5 cents per diluted ADS for Q4, excluding a planned divestiture gain. Q3 was 10.7 cents (Q3 release, 5 November 2026).
- The cause is partly structural. Management cited a 22.4% fall in Chinese domestic sales of locally made vehicles over the first nine months of 2026 and a 65.8% rise in exports, per China Association of Automobile Manufacturers data. It also cited EU pressure on Chinese vehicle imports and China's October cut to export tax rebates on new-energy vehicles (Q3 call, 5 November 2026).
- The glasses win has no revenue figure. Management disclosed no AI-glasses revenue or shipment numbers on the 5 November 2026 call. Large display driver sales fell 1% sequentially to $19.0 million on weaker monitor and notebook demand (Q3 release, 5 November 2026).
- The shares trail their own averages. The close of $9.09 on 11 November 2026 is under the 50-day average of $12.61 and the 200-day average of $12.68, and the 3-month change is −38.0% (adjusted daily closes).
Price setup
The shares closed at $9.09 on 11 November 2026 after a post-report low close of $7.68 on 5 November 2026. Closes were $8.49 on 6 November 2026, $8.61 on 9 November 2026 and $8.54 on 10 November 2026. The rebound has recovered part of the drop from the $10.44 close of 4 November 2026.
The 52-week closing low is $6.93, set on 20 November 2025. It sits below the post-report low and will leave the 52-week window within days. The 52-week intraday high is $25.09 (2 June 2026). The close on 13 August 2026 was $14.66, the reference point for the 3-month change.
Overhead, both moving averages cluster near $12.6 to $12.7 (adjusted daily closes, as of 11 November 2026), and the $10.44 close of 4 November 2026 is the nearest pre-report level.
SEC Form 4 filings show CEO Jordan Wu exercised options on 13,612 shares and CFO Ming-Feng Pan on 3,916 shares on 30 September 2026. Two more Form 4 filings since 14 August 2026 are not itemised. The filings list option exercises, not open-market sales.
Catalysts ahead
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): Expected closing of Himax's sale of its equity-method investee stake. Adds a one-time pre-tax gain of about $23–24 million that Himax's Q4 profit guidance excludes; it depends on regulatory approvals.
- ~February 2027 (est.): Q4 2026 earnings release. Shows whether revenue fell within the guided 22–26% range, whether the 2027 double-digit growth view holds and whether Himax quotes smart-glasses revenue.
What would change the view
A daily close above $10.64, over the $10.44 close of 4 November 2026 that preceded the guidance, which would show the shares recovering the post-report loss and leading. A Q4 2026 revenue decline smaller than the 22% low end of the guide would also show that.
What it trades with
Himax's driver-chip revenue follows automotive and panel-maker order cycles, mainly in China. Its 2027 upside case rests on AI glasses and CPO, which depend on customers' product launches, not on Himax's own orders. A weaker China auto export market hits the first group and leaves the second largely untouched. Taiwanese display and optics suppliers, including partner FOCI, share the same order cycles.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Q3 2026 revenue was $246.8 million, up 8.5% sequentially; gross margin 34.2%; profit 10.7 cents per diluted ADS versus 8.0–10.0 cents guided. Himax Q3 2026 results release · as of
- Himax guided Q4 2026 revenue down 22% to 26% sequentially and profit of 4.5–6.5 cents per diluted ADS, excluding a divestiture gain. Himax Q3 2026 results release and earnings call · as of
- Non-driver revenue was $51.0 million, up 11.2% sequentially and 20.7% of Q3 revenue; large display drivers were $19.0 million, down 1%. Himax Q3 2026 results release · as of
- Management cited a 22.4% fall in Chinese domestic sales of locally made vehicles and a 65.8% rise in exports over the first nine months of 2026, per CAAM data, as part of the automotive order correction. Himax Q3 2026 earnings call transcript (Motley Fool) · as of
- Management disclosed no AI-glasses revenue or shipment figures and said smart-glasses projects enter mass production from 2027. Himax Q3 2026 earnings call transcript (Motley Fool) · as of
- The planned sale of an equity-method investee stake is expected to close in Q4 with a pre-tax gain of about $23–24 million. Himax Q3 2026 results release · as of
- The shares closed at $10.44 on 4 November 2026 and $7.68 on 5 November 2026, the day of the Q3 report. Daily closes (quoted) · as of
- CEO Jordan Wu exercised options on 13,612 shares and CFO Ming-Feng Pan on 3,916 shares on 30 September 2026. SEC Form 4 filings · as of
Sources
- Himax Q3 Earnings: Q4 Revenue Seen Down 22%-26% QoQ · stocktitan.net
- Himax (HIMX) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript · fool.com ·
- Himax Technologies, Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results; Provides Fourth Quarter 2026 Guidance · finance.yahoo.com
- Finviz