HPP · Hudson Pacific Properties
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $10.90
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
18.7% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $10.90, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 35.8% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $10.90, the 200-day average of adjusted closes as of 11 November 2026, which would show the shares leading again. A 2026 Core FFO guidance range raised above $1.21 per diluted share would also show it.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Real Estate
Filed figures are not available: the newest filed quarter ends 2026-03-31.
All filed numbers
What Hudson Pacific Properties reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): the share of shares outstanding is not available, 9.5 days of average trading to cover, −4.1% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $906K | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $1.3M | $0 |
The thesis
Hudson Pacific Properties is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. Its operating numbers improved in the 5 November 2026 third-quarter report, but the shares fell instead of rising, and the fourth-quarter report decides whether occupancy and cash support a rebound.
The shares closed at $10.56 on 4 November 2026 and at $8.76 on 5 November 2026, the day of the report. They closed at $8.64 on 11 November 2026, 49.8% below the 52-week intraday high of $17.20 on 6 July 2026. The 3-month change is negative 40.4%, measured from the $14.50 close of 13 August 2026.
The company reported in-service office occupancy of 85.6% at 30 September 2026, the fifth straight quarterly gain. Core funds from operations (Core FFO, a real estate earnings measure the company reports alongside GAAP results) was $0.28 per diluted share against $0.26 a year earlier. It raised and narrowed 2026 Core FFO guidance to $1.15–$1.21 from $1.12–$1.20. The market response to that news shows that investors are weighing the $218.1 million third-quarter net loss, negative adjusted FFO and a thin cash balance more heavily than the occupancy gain.
Bullish and bearish views on Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc.
The bull case on Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc. (HPP), in brief: occupancy keeps rising. The bear case: large reported loss.
Bull case
- Occupancy keeps rising. In-service office occupancy was 85.6% at 30 September 2026 and the leased rate was 86.1%, per the company's 5 November 2026 release. Management cited a leasing pipeline above 2 million square feet, with more than 1 million in advanced stages.
- Guidance moved up. 2026 Core FFO guidance is $1.15–$1.21 per diluted share, raised from $1.12–$1.20 (company release, 5 November 2026). Q3 Core FFO of $0.28 compares with $0.26 a year earlier.
- Debt is falling. Pro forma debt at the company's share is $2.7 billion, down $425.0 million, or 14%, from a year earlier. The company repurchased $200.0 million of 2027 and 2028 senior notes at a discount to par after quarter-end.
- Liquidity is large. Liquidity was $955.8 million at 30 September 2026 and $840.4 million pro forma. Debt is 100% fixed or capped at a 4.9% weighted average rate.
- Studio loan extended. The $1.1 billion Hollywood Media Portfolio loan was extended to November 2027 with no principal paydown, per the company's 11 September 2026 Form 8-K and 5 November 2026 release.
Bear case
- Large reported loss. The third-quarter net loss was $218.1 million, or $3.38 per diluted share, against $136.5 million, or $2.12, a year earlier. The company attributes it to non-cash impairments and a loss on sale of office properties (release, 5 November 2026).
- Revenue is shrinking. Revenue was $180.9 million against $186.6 million in the third quarter of 2025. The company points mainly to dispositions.
- Cash flow after leasing costs is negative. Adjusted FFO (AFFO, which deducts leasing and capital spending) was negative $5.1 million, or negative $0.08 per share, against positive $0.19 a year earlier. The company cites higher lease-up capital spending.
- Cash is thin. Unrestricted cash was $160.5 million at 30 September 2026 and $75.1 million pro forma for the note repurchase and asset sales.
- Rent growth is small. Cash rents on new leases rose 0.4% over prior rents on the same space, against 6.0% for GAAP rents. 2026 guidance for same-store cash net operating income growth is 0.00% to 1.00%.
- Studios lag offices. In-service studios were 74.7% leased on a trailing three-month basis, and the 11 September 2026 loan extension sweeps excess portfolio cash flow into a reserve.
Price setup
The shares closed at $8.64 on 11 November 2026. They closed at $9.41 on 9 November 2026, $8.96 on 10 November 2026 and $8.49 on 6 November 2026, the lowest close since the report. The 52-week closing low is $5.51 on 1 April 2026.
The last close sits below the 50-day average of $11.11 and below the 200-day average of adjusted closes. The $10.56 close of 4 November 2026, the last session before the report, is the nearest prior close the shares would need to reclaim to erase the post-report drop.
Company news lists a BofA Securities price target adjustment on 10 November 2026; the new target level was not retrievable. No analyst action dated after the report is otherwise confirmed. Piper Sandler's 19 October 2026 downgrade to Neutral predates the report. No fourth-quarter result falls inside the next 30 days, and SEC filings list no insider transactions since the 10-Q of 6 November 2026.
Catalysts ahead
- ~25 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results. Shows whether in-service office occupancy held within the 82.0%–84.0% 2026 average assumption and whether cash held up after asset sales and note repurchases.
- ~9 November 2027 (est.): Hollywood Media Portfolio loan maturity after extension. The $1.1 billion loan was extended to November 2027 with no principal paydown, so refinancing or a further extension decides the studio segment's debt outlook.
What would change the view
A daily close above $10.90, the 200-day average of adjusted closes as of 11 November 2026, which would show the shares leading again. A 2026 Core FFO guidance range raised above $1.21 per diluted share would also show it.
What it trades with
Hudson Pacific trades with US office real estate investment trusts and West Coast office values. Its studio segment ties it to film and television production volume. Analysts at BofA, Piper Sandler, BMO and Wells Fargo have moved on the name in 2026. Interest rates matter because refinancing costs and property values drive its asset-sale and debt-reduction plan.
The evidence, claim by claim (7)
- In-service office occupancy was 85.6% at 30 September 2026, up 310 basis points sequentially and the fifth straight quarterly gain; the leased rate was 86.1%. Hudson Pacific Q3 2026 earnings release · as of
- Q3 Core FFO was $0.28 per diluted share against $0.26 a year earlier; revenue was $180.9 million against $186.6 million; net loss was $218.1 million, or $3.38 per diluted share. Hudson Pacific Q3 2026 earnings release · as of
- 2026 Core FFO guidance was raised and narrowed to $1.15–$1.21 per diluted share from $1.12–$1.20, assuming average in-service office occupancy of 82.0%–84.0%. Hudson Pacific Q3 2026 earnings release · as of
- Liquidity was $955.8 million at 30 September 2026 ($840.4 million pro forma); unrestricted cash was $160.5 million ($75.1 million pro forma). Hudson Pacific Q3 2026 earnings release · as of
- The company repurchased $200.0 million of 2027 and 2028 senior notes at a discount to par after quarter-end; pro forma debt at its share is $2.7 billion, down $425.0 million (14%) year over year. Hudson Pacific Q3 2026 earnings release · as of
- The shares closed at $10.56 on 4 November 2026 and $8.76 on 5 November 2026, the day of the third-quarter report. Split-adjusted daily closes · as of
- The shares closed at $8.64, 49.8% below the 52-week intraday high of $17.20 set on 6 July 2026; the 3-month change was negative 40.4%. Split-adjusted daily closes · as of
Sources