HL · Hecla Mining
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $16.74
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
21.7% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $16.74, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 30.4% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $16.74, the 50-day average of closes as of 11 November 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again. A raised 2026 silver production floor above 15.3 million ounces would also point to a lead.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Materials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 4 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 395
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +24.9
- Gross margin (%)
- 50.7
- Operating margin (%)
- 39.8
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 760
- Price to earnings (×)
- 23.0
All filed numbers
What Hecla Mining reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 395 | +24.9 | 50.7 | 39.8 |
| first filed | 334 | +52.4 | 53.9 | 43.6 |
| first filed | 411 | +100.4 | 61.6 | 54.2 |
| first filed restated | 316 | +28.9 | 45.0 | 35.1 |
| first filed restated | 219 | −10.9 | 38.9 | 26.5 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 190 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 383 | 150 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +0.7 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 789 |
| Capital spending ($M) | Not available |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 767 |
| Debt ($M) notes | 7.1 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 760 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 134 |
| Inventory ($M) | 23.8 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 2,822 |
| Market value ($M) | 8,800 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 8,040 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not available |
| Price to earnings (×) | 23.0 |
| Price to book value (×) | 3.1 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not available |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 5.4% of shares outstanding sold short, 1.2 days of average trading to cover, −2.9% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $498K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $7.2M |
The thesis
Hecla Mining Company's record third-quarter cash flow has not lifted the shares, and the case for beating the S&P 500 over the next three months is weaker than the results suggest. The shares closed at $14.12 on 11 November 2026, 58.7% below the 52-week intraday high of $34.17 set on 26 January 2026. The fourth-quarter report and Keno Hill 2027 guidance, expected around February 2027, settle whether margin and output recover.
The 3 November 2026 results beat estimates. Earnings per share were $0.22 against a $0.16 estimate, and sales were $394.82 million against $340.0 million (company news, 3 November 2026). The shares fell anyway: they closed at $14.95 on 4 November 2026, $15.41 on 9 November 2026 and $14.29 on 10 November 2026.
On 10 November 2026 Hecla entered an equity distribution agreement allowing it to sell up to 50 million common shares through sales agents (Form 8-K, 10 November 2026). The filing states no purpose and no dollar amount, and Hecla is not obliged to sell any shares. The company reported $692 million of cash and no debt apart from finance leases at 30 September 2026, so the program sits beside a clean balance sheet.
The Keno Hill curtailment and a narrower per-ounce margin are the operating reasons the rating is Low.
Bullish and bearish views on Hecla Mining Company
The bull case on Hecla Mining Company (HL), in brief: cash generation set a record. The bear case: new equity supply is authorised.
Bull case
- Cash generation set a record. Hecla reported free cash flow of $151.2 million from continuing operations in the third quarter, up from $136 million in the second. Greens Creek contributed a site-level record of $147 million (company release, 3 November 2026).
- The balance sheet is clean. Cash was $692 million at 30 September 2026, up from $483 million at 30 June 2026, with an undrawn $500 million revolver (company release, 3 November 2026).
- Guidance moved the right way. The silver-production floor rose to 15.3 million ounces from 15.1 million. Silver all-in sustaining cost (AISC) guidance fell to $11.50–$12.50 per ounce from $12.50–$13.50, and capital investment was trimmed to $198–214 million (company release, 3 November 2026).
- Lucky Friday cooling is built. Construction of the surface-cooling project is complete and commissioning is expected in the fourth quarter of 2026 (company release, 3 November 2026).
- Preferred stock is being retired in cash. Hecla will redeem all 150,736 Series B preferred shares on 11 December 2026 at $50.6806 each including accrued dividends, about $7.64 million from cash on hand (Form 8-K, 10 November 2026). The conversion price of $15.55 is above the $14.12 close, so conversion into common shares is less likely than cash redemption.
- Scotiabank's target sits above the price. Scotiabank kept Sector Perform and lowered its target to $20 on 4 November 2026 (company news).
Bear case
- New equity supply is authorised. The 10 November 2026 agreement covers up to 50 million common shares, with agent commissions of no more than 1.5% of gross proceeds (Form 8-K). The shares closed at $14.29 that day, down from $15.41 on 9 November 2026.
- Per-ounce margin narrowed. Third-quarter silver AISC was $14.34 per ounce, against $6.07 in the second quarter and above the top of the full-year range of $12.50. Management framed the margin as 77% of the realized silver price, down from 90% in the first half (Earnings Whispers via Finviz, 4 November 2026). Reported AISC excludes Keno Hill.
- Silver output is flat. Third-quarter production was 4.17 million ounces, nearly unchanged from the second quarter. The 2026 guidance of 15.3–16.1 million ounces keeps the same top end (company release, 3 November 2026).
- Keno Hill is being curtailed. Mill throughput falls to about 300 tons per day in the fourth quarter, with more cuts from January 2027, to preserve about 200,000 tons of permitted tailings capacity until license amendments, estimated around mid-2029 (company release, 3 November 2026).
- Care and maintenance stays possible. Management said on the call that care and maintenance is not ruled out if permits slip or silver weakens. Keno Hill free cash flow was about negative $2 million in the quarter, after five positive quarters (Earnings Whispers via Finviz, 4 November 2026).
- Rate pressure on metals miners. Benzinga reported on 28 August 2026 that remarks by Kevin Warsh sank silver and gold miners, and on 14 October 2026 that hot inflation data hit rate-sensitive stocks.
Price setup
The last close was $14.12 on 11 November 2026, below the 50-day average of closes and below the 200-day average of $18.07. The close was $17.73 on 13 August 2026, and the three-month change is −20.4%.
The quoted 52-week closing low is $13.21 on 20 November 2025, a level that sits just below the current price. A close beneath it would put the shares at a 52-week closing low.
Recent closes were $14.95 on 4 November 2026, $14.45 on 5 November 2026, $14.74 on 6 November 2026, $15.41 on 9 November 2026 and $14.29 on 10 November 2026. The results beat on 3 November 2026 did not move the shares out of a $14–$15.50 range.
The 52-week high of $34.17 is far overhead. The only SEC Form 4 filing listed is a sale of 23,994 shares by VP Patrick Shay Malone at an average $20.76 on 20 August 2026, well above the current price.
Catalysts ahead
- 23 November 2026: Record date for Hecla's quarterly common dividend of $0.00375 per share. Confirms the small dividend continues; the board is to discuss capital returns in the first half of 2027.
- 10 December 2026: Last day for Series B preferred holders to convert into common shares (close of business). Conversion would issue up to about 484,700 common shares; with the conversion price of $15.55 above recent closes, cash redemption is the likelier outcome.
- 11 December 2026: Redemption of all Series B preferred stock at $50.6806 per share including accrued dividends. Retires the preferred stock for about $7.64 million of cash on hand, a small draw against $692 million of cash.
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): Lucky Friday surface-cooling commissioning, expected in Q4 2026. Completes a project once targeted for September 2026 and supports Lucky Friday's record output.
- ~28 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter results and Keno Hill 2027 production guidance. Shows whether full-year silver AISC finished within $11.50–$12.50 and how much silver the curtailed Keno Hill adds next year.
What would change the view
A daily close above $16.74, the 50-day average of closes as of 11 November 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again. A raised 2026 silver production floor above 15.3 million ounces would also point to a lead.
What it trades with
Hecla's revenue depends on silver and gold prices. Third-quarter realized prices were $63.62 per ounce for silver and $4,279 per ounce for gold (company release, 3 November 2026). Precious-metals miners fell together on rate remarks on 28 August 2026 and on inflation data on 14 October 2026 (Benzinga). Hecla's moves track those rate-driven swings in the metals more than its own operating news; two selloffs are too few to measure how closely.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue from continuing operations was $394.8M, net income $149.6M, EPS $0.22 and adjusted EBITDA $211.5M; realized silver was $63.62 per ounce and gold $4,279 per ounce. Hecla Q3 2026 results release (Form 8-K) · as of
- Record free cash flow of $151.2M from continuing operations; cash was $692M at 30 September 2026 with no debt apart from finance leases and an undrawn $500M revolver. Hecla Q3 2026 results release (Form 8-K) · as of
- Third-quarter silver output was 4.17 million ounces; silver AISC was $14.34 per ounce against $6.07 in the second quarter. Hecla Q3 2026 results release (Form 8-K) · as of
- 2026 silver guidance is 15.3–16.1 million ounces (low end raised from 15.1); silver AISC guidance $11.50–$12.50 per ounce; capital investment $198–214M. Hecla Q3 2026 results release (Form 8-K) · as of
- Keno Hill mill throughput falls to about 300 tons per day in Q4 2026, with further cuts from January 2027, to preserve about 200,000 tons of permitted tailings capacity until license amendments around mid-2029. Hecla Q3 2026 results release (Form 8-K) · as of
- Hecla entered an equity distribution agreement to sell up to 50 million common shares through sales agents at commissions of up to 1.5%, under its existing Form S-3 shelf registration. Hecla Form 8-K · as of
- Hecla will redeem all 150,736 Series B preferred shares on 11 December 2026 at $50.00 plus accrued dividends (estimated $50.6806 total), about $7.64M in cash; holders may convert until 10 December 2026 at 3.2154 common shares each ($15.55 conversion price). Hecla Form 8-K · as of
- Scotiabank kept Sector Perform on Hecla and lowered its price target to $20. Company news, 4 November 2026 · as of
Sources