HMY · Harmony Gold Mining
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $18.33
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
17.7% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $18.33, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 23.0% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $18.33, which is over the 9 November 2026 close of $17.60 and the 50-day average, would show the shares leading the S&P 500. Lowered fiscal 2027 all-in sustaining cost guidance would point the same way.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Materials
Filed figures are not available: no quarterly report in US GAAP with the SEC (a foreign filer reports on Form 20-F or 40-F).
All filed numbers
What Harmony Gold Mining reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): the share of shares outstanding is not available, 3.5 days of average trading to cover, +30.2% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $0 |
The thesis
Harmony Gold's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The September-quarter update on 9 November 2026 held cost guidance, but gold output fell 12% and earnings depend on a gold price near $4,040 an ounce, far below January's record. The 9 December 2026 US Federal Reserve decision and the December-quarter output are the next tests.
The shares closed at $15.44 on 12 November 2026, down from $17.60 on 9 November 2026, with closes of $16.37 on 10 November 2026 and $16.08 on 11 November 2026. That is 40.8% below the 52-week high of $26.06 (intraday, 28 January 2026). The three-month price change is −18.8%. The market has priced in lower gold production and a gold price well under its record; the update on 9 November 2026 did not hold the shares up.
The operating update was mixed. Harmony produced 342,758 ounces of gold in the quarter to 30 September 2026, against 389,923 ounces a year earlier. All-in sustaining costs (the full cost of producing and sustaining an ounce) were R1,300,073 per kilogram, up 17%, which the company says is at the lower end of its R1,300,000–R1,395,000 guidance. The average price received was R2,123,588 per kilogram (US$4,057 an ounce), up 17%. Kitco showed spot gold at $4,042.60 an ounce on 6 November 2026, against the $5,589.38 record of 28 January 2026.
Bullish and bearish views on Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited
The bull case on Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY), in brief: cost guidance held. The bear case: output is falling.
Bull case
- Cost guidance held. Harmony reported gold all-in sustaining costs of R1,300,073 per kilogram for the quarter and reaffirmed the R1,300,000–R1,395,000 range on 9 November 2026.
- Balance sheet improved. Net cash was R4.2 billion (US$243 million) at 30 September 2026, against net debt of R852 million at 30 June 2026. The convertible bond is counted as 100% debt and its accounting treatment is under review.
- Realised gold price rose. The average price received was US$4,057 an ounce, up from US$3,209 a year earlier, per the 9 November 2026 update.
- Copper adds a second earnings stream. The CSA mine produced 7,077 tonnes in the quarter, and fiscal 2027 copper guidance of 28–30 thousand tonnes was reaffirmed on 9 November 2026.
- Mponeng output held. The mine produced 2,725 kg (87,611 oz) with recovered grade up 10% to 11.55 grams per tonne, per the 9 November 2026 update.
- Hedge floor sits above the realised price. 600,000 ounces are covered by rand zero-cost collars with an average floor of R2,207,000 per kilogram and a cap of R2,477,000, per the same update.
Bear case
- Output is falling. Gold production was down 12% and gold sold fell to 10,505 kg from 11,927 kg, per the 9 November 2026 update.
- Unit costs rose 17%. All-in sustaining costs of R1,300,073 per kilogram (US$2,484 an ounce) sit at the bottom of a guidance range that tops out at R1,395,000.
- Safety record worsened. Three employees died in the quarter and the lost-time injury frequency rate was 5.04, against 4.29 a year earlier, per Harmony on 9 November 2026. Mponeng development remains behind plan on a contractor transition and equipment availability.
- Eva Copper absorbs cash. Project capital spending was R1,850 million (US$114 million) in the quarter, with first production targeted for the second half of calendar 2028. Miningmx reported on 22 September 2026 that Eva is budgeted at $1.55–1.75 billion to first production.
- Gold is far below its record. Kitco showed $4,042.60 on 6 November 2026 against $5,589.38 on 28 January 2026.
- Convertible dilution is possible. The $500 million 1.5% bonds due 2031 convert into about 19.4 million shares at an initial R418.60 ($25.7519), per the 22 September 2026 pricing announcement.
Price setup
The shares closed at $15.44 on 12 November 2026, the third lower close in a row. The close sits below the 50-day average of $17.40 and the 200-day average of $17.17, both as of 12 November 2026 on adjusted closes. The last close above both averages was $17.60 on 9 November 2026.
Three months earlier, the close on 14 August 2026 was $19.44. The 52-week closing low is $13.32 on 20 March 2026, 13.7% under the latest close on quoted figures.
Harmony is a foreign private issuer and files Forms 6-K and 20-F, so US insider-transaction forms do not exist for it. Its annual report on Form 20-F for the year to 30 June 2026 was filed on 30 October 2026. The convertible bond's conversion price of $25.7519 sits well above the last close and just under the 52-week high.
Catalysts ahead
- 9 December 2026: US Federal Reserve rate decision, the last day of the two-day meeting. Rate expectations and the dollar have driven the gold price, which sets Harmony's margins and realised price.
- ~26 February 2027 (est.): Interim results for the six months to 31 December 2026 (date unconfirmed). First full-period test of the 12% fall in gold output and the cost guidance against the gold price.
What would change the view
A daily close above $18.33, which is over the 9 November 2026 close of $17.60 and the 50-day average, would show the shares leading the S&P 500. Lowered fiscal 2027 all-in sustaining cost guidance would point the same way.
What it trades with
Harmony trades mainly with the spot gold price and with the rand–dollar exchange rate, because costs are in rand and the gold price is in dollars. Copper prices now matter through CSA output and the Eva Copper project, so the shares no longer follow gold alone. The Kitco gold quote and the Federal Reserve's rate path are the external drivers named in this note.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Gold production 10,661 kg (342,758 oz) in the quarter to 30 September 2026, down 12% from 12,128 kg (389,923 oz) a year earlier; gold sold 10,505 kg versus 11,927 kg. Harmony operational update, three months to 30 September 2026 · as of
- Gold all-in sustaining costs R1,300,073 per kilogram (US$2,484 an ounce), up 17% from R1,107,486; the company says this is at the lower end of fiscal 2027 guidance of R1,300,000–R1,395,000 per kilogram. Harmony operational update, three months to 30 September 2026 · as of
- Average gold price received R2,123,588 per kilogram (US$4,057 an ounce), up 17% from R1,818,510 per kilogram (US$3,209 an ounce). Harmony operational update, three months to 30 September 2026 · as of
- CSA copper production 7,077 tonnes in the quarter; fiscal 2027 copper guidance of 28–30 thousand tonnes reaffirmed. Harmony operational update, three months to 30 September 2026 · as of
- Net cash R4.2 billion (US$243 million) at 30 September 2026, against net debt of R852 million at 30 June 2026, with the convertible bond treated as 100% debt. Harmony operational update, three months to 30 September 2026 · as of
- Eva Copper capital spending R1,850 million (US$114 million) in the quarter; first production targeted for the second half of calendar 2028. Harmony operational update, three months to 30 September 2026 · as of
- Three employees died in the quarter; the lost-time injury frequency rate was 5.04 against 4.29 a year earlier. Harmony operational update, three months to 30 September 2026 · as of
- Closed at $15.44 on 12 November 2026, down from $17.60 on 9 November 2026; 40.8% below the quoted 52-week high of $26.06; three-month price change −18.8%. Daily closes, NYSE line · as of
Sources
- Operational update for the three months ended 30 September 2026 · harmony.co.za
- HARMONY GOLD MINING CO LTD - Form 6-K · sec.gov
- Kitco
- Harmony Gold dividend soars as earnings jump 87% · miningmx.com