HIMS · Hims & Hers Health
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $23.00
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
14.2% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $23.00, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 31.0% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $23.00, over the $22.94 close of 9 November 2026 before the third-quarter report, which would show the shares recovering the post-report drop and leading. A business result pointing the same way would be fourth-quarter 2026 revenue above the $895 million top of the guide.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 9 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 890
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +48.6
- Gross margin (%)
- 57.2
- Operating margin (%)
- −7.4
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 8.2
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −655
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 1.8
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- 0.2
All filed numbers
What Hims & Hers Health reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 890 | +48.6 | 57.2 | −7.4 |
| first filed | 753 | +38.2 | 63.8 | −12.9 |
| first filed | 608 | +3.8 | 65.2 | −12.9 |
| first filed | 618 | +28.4 | 71.9 | 1.5 |
| first filed | 599 | +49.2 | 73.8 | 2.0 |
| first filed | 545 | +72.6 | 76.4 | 4.9 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −46.2 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −191 | −33.0 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −6.0 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 180 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 172 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 8.2 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 712 |
| Debt ($M) convertible debt | 1,367 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −655 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +21.6% on a year | 144 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 428 |
| Inventory ($M) | 108 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 355 |
| Market value ($M) | 4,613 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 5,269 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 1.8 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 13.0 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 0.2 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 22.9% of shares outstanding sold short, 5.0 days of average trading to cover, −2.4% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $3.8M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $1.2M | $19.3M |
The thesis
Hims & Hers Health shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The 9 November 2026 third-quarter report showed gross margin down to 57% and a fourth-quarter revenue guide no higher than the third quarter. November weight-loss billing data and the first weeks of Eli Lilly drug sales on the platform show whether growth resumes.
Third-quarter revenue was $890.4 million, up 49% from a year earlier and inside the company's $880–900 million guide (company results, 9 November 2026). Gross margin fell to 57% from 74% a year earlier, and the quarter swung to a $33.0 million net loss. The shares closed at $26.00 on 6 November 2026, the day of the Lilly agreement, at $22.94 on 9 November 2026 before the report, at $19.13 on 10 November 2026 and at $19.73 on 12 November 2026. At $19.73 the price reflects the margin reset and a flat fourth quarter, and sits below every analyst target published on 10 November 2026. It does not yet reflect a rebound in weight-loss demand from the Lilly agreement.
Bullish and bearish views on Hims & Hers Health, Inc.
The bull case on Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS), in brief: revenue per subscriber keeps rising. The bear case: margins fell further.
Bull case
- Revenue per subscriber keeps rising. Monthly revenue per average subscriber was $105 in the third quarter, up 30% from $81 a year earlier (company results, 9 November 2026). The CFO credited menopause therapies and testosterone testing.
- Profit landed inside the guide. Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, adjusted) was $82.4 million, a 9% margin, inside the $75–95 million guide (company results, 9 November 2026).
- Lilly drugs come onto the platform. Lilly's 6 November 2026 release lists Zepbound from $299 a month and the oral drug Foundayo from $149 a month at standard self-pay prices for Hims & Hers patients. Novo Nordisk's Wegovy was already sold there.
- Marketing was held back on purpose. The CFO said on 9 November 2026 that the company was "intentionally pacing marketing spend ahead of several planned expansions to our platform in the fourth quarter." Marketing expense was $247.3 million against $232.2 million a year earlier.
- Two analysts stay above the market. Evercore ISI kept In-Line and raised its target to $27 on 10 November 2026. Needham kept Buy and cut its target to $32 from $42 the same day.
Bear case
- Margins fell further. Gross margin was 57% in the third quarter, below the second quarter's 64% and 74% a year earlier (company results, 9 November 2026). Earnings per share were a loss of $0.14.
- The subscriber count shrank. Subscribers were 2.788 million at 30 September 2026, up 13% from a year earlier but below 2.891 million at 30 June 2026 (company results).
- The fourth-quarter guide is flat. The company guided fourth-quarter revenue of $875–895 million and cut full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance from $275–325 million to $257–277 million on 9 November 2026. TIKR reported on 12 November 2026 that this was the third cut to the 2026 profit outlook this year.
- Next year's estimates still ask a lot. TIKR put consensus 2027 adjusted EBITDA at $383 million on 12 November 2026, which it calculates needs about 43% growth from the new 2026 midpoint.
- Analysts cut targets. On 10 November 2026 Jefferies kept Hold and cut its target to $24, and Morgan Stanley kept Equal-Weight and cut to $25 from $28.
- The FTC case widened. On 10 November 2026 the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) filed an amended complaint adding Arizona, Florida, Nebraska, Ohio and Wisconsin as plaintiffs alongside California and Utah in its privacy and billing suit. Hims & Hers said it will "vigorously defend" itself.
- A new director comes with paid contracts. Andrew Huberman joined the board on 9 November 2026 as a non-independent director; FITT reported on 10 November 2026, citing an SEC filing, that his advisory and podcast-advertising agreements are worth up to $24 million, plus board pay of $50,000 in cash and $250,000 in equity a year.
- Weight-loss demand slowed before the deal. Truist card data showed September GLP-1 billings down 16% from the previous month per day, per Investing.com on 8 October 2026.
- Executives sold before the report. SEC Form 4 filings show the CFO sold 29,277 shares at $29.95 on 22 September 2026, the COO sold 14,027 shares at $28.39 on 15 September 2026, and the Chief Legal Officer sold 3,462 shares at $27.60 on 28 October 2026, all under Rule 10b5-1 trading plans.
Price setup
The shares closed at $19.73 on 12 November 2026, below the 50-day moving average of $27.77 and the 200-day moving average of $26.73. The 3-month change is −29.9%, from $28.15 on 14 August 2026. The last close is 51.9% below the 52-week intraday high of $40.99 set on 5 December 2025.
Two levels bound the case. The $22.94 close of 9 November 2026, set before the report, is the first level above; regaining it would erase the post-report drop. The shares bounced to $20.81 on 11 November 2026 and gave most of it back the next session. The 52-week closing low of $14.52 on 27 February 2026 is the floor of the past year. Every target dated 10 November 2026 (Jefferies $24, Morgan Stanley $25, Evercore ISI $27, Needham $32) sits above the last close.
Catalysts ahead
- ~30 November 2026 (est.): Peptide product launch, which the CEO said comes in November 2026. Shows whether a new category adds to revenue per subscriber; the CFO has said fourth-quarter peptide revenue will not be material.
- ~5 December 2026 (est.): November card-data updates on GLP-1 weight-loss billings. First full month after the Lilly agreement; a rise would answer September's 16% decline and point to growth above the flat fourth-quarter guide.
- ~23 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 results and 2027 guidance. Revenue against the $875–895 million guide, gross margin against 57%, and a 2027 outlook against consensus EBITDA of $383 million show whether the Lilly launch and paced marketing restart growth.
What would change the view
A daily close above $23.00, over the $22.94 close of 9 November 2026 before the third-quarter report, which would show the shares recovering the post-report drop and leading. A business result pointing the same way would be fourth-quarter 2026 revenue above the $895 million top of the guide.
What it trades with
Hims & Hers trades with telehealth and consumer-health names, but its weight-loss revenue ties it to Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk pricing and supply decisions. Changes to compounding rules, such as the 28 October 2026 Department of Health and Human Services announcement on peptide compounding, move the shares apart from company results. The new peptide line, with BPC-157 awaiting testing and sourcing standards from regulators per the CEO on 9 November 2026, adds to that regulatory link. The FTC and state case is a further company-specific driver that the sector does not share.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $890.4 million, up 49% from a year earlier; gross margin was 57% versus 74%; net loss was $33.0 million versus net income of $15.8 million. Hims & Hers Q3 2026 results release (8-K) · as of
- Subscribers were 2.788 million at 30 September 2026, up 13% from a year earlier and down from 2.891 million at 30 June 2026; monthly revenue per average subscriber was $105, up 30%. Hims & Hers Q3 2026 results release · as of
- Fourth-quarter 2026 guidance is revenue of $875–895 million and adjusted EBITDA of $70–90 million; full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance was cut to $257–277 million from $275–325 million. Hims & Hers Q3 2026 results release (8-K) · as of
- Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA was $82.4 million, a 9% margin, inside the $75–95 million guide; earnings per share were a loss of $0.14. Hims & Hers Q3 2026 results release · as of
- The FTC filed an amended complaint adding Arizona, Florida, Nebraska, Ohio and Wisconsin as plaintiffs in its privacy and billing suit against Hims & Hers. FTC press release · as of
- Jefferies cut its target to $24 (Hold), Morgan Stanley to $25 (Equal-Weight) and Needham to $32 from $42 (Buy); Evercore ISI raised its target to $27 (In-Line). Analyst rating notes reported 10 November 2026 · as of
- Lilly and Hims & Hers announced Zepbound (from $299 a month) and Foundayo (from $149 a month) at standard self-pay prices on the Hims & Hers platform. Lilly investor release · as of
- Andrew Huberman joined the board as a non-independent director; advisory and podcast-advertising agreements are worth up to $24 million plus $50,000 cash and $250,000 equity in annual board pay. FITT Insider, citing an SEC filing · as of
Sources
- Revenue of approximately $890 million, up 49% year-over-year in Q3 2026 · investors.hims.com
- Hims & Hers Health, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov
- Five States Join FTC Lawsuit Alleging Hims and Hers Engaged in Deceptive and Unlawful Privacy Practices · ftc.gov
- Lilly and Hims & Hers expand access to FDA-approved Lilly medicines · investor.lilly.com
- Hims & Hers Lost 22% in a Week. Needham Still Sees 54% Upside From Here · tikr.com ·
- insider.fitt.co ·
- HIMS Stock Tumbles After-Hours On Surprise Q3 Loss And Cut Profit Outlook: Retail Demands Answers · stocktwits.com
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