HIVE · HIVE Digital Technologies
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $2.22
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
29.3% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $2.22, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 48.9% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $2.22, the 15 October 2026 close and the highest of the 20 sessions to 6 November 2026, which would show the shares recovering and leading the S&P 500; a company report that the 2,303 GB200 GPUs are delivered and earning revenue before 31 December 2026 would also count against this call.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Financials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 9 November 2026
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 84.9
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −2.7
- Gross margin (%)
- −29.1
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −108
All filed numbers
What HIVE Digital Technologies reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 84.9 | −2.7 | −29.1 |
| first filed | 79.1 | +73.5 | −37.3 |
| first filed | 87.3 | — | 4.7 |
| first filed | 45.6 | — | −13.6 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | Not reported |
| Net income ($M) | −78.7 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +20.1 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Capital spending ($M) | Not available |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 139 |
| Debt ($M) convertible debt plus loans plus short-term borrowings | 247 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −108 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 18.6 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 365 |
| Market value ($M) | 435 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 543 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not available |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not available |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.2 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not available |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 20.7% of shares outstanding sold short, 6.0 days of average trading to cover, +6.2% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $306K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $3.6M |
The thesis
HIVE Digital Technologies' AI cloud business is growing, but it is still too small to carry the shares. Bitcoin mining earns most of the revenue, and the latest quarter ended in a large loss. The shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The test is whether the company's 2,303 NVIDIA GB200 graphics processors (GPUs) for Cohere arrive and start earning revenue by the end of 2026.
The fiscal second-quarter report (quarter ended 30 September 2026), released on 9 November 2026, showed revenue of $84.9 million. That was up 7.3% from the prior quarter and down 2.7% from a year earlier (company results via Crypto Briefing, 10 November 2026). Bitcoin mining contributed $76.0 million from 1,070 bitcoin mined. High-performance computing (HPC) revenue was $8.8 million, up from $7.1 million in the June quarter and up 70.7% year on year.
The GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) net loss was $78.7 million. It included a $31.2 million non-cash impairment on mining equipment and $54.9 million of depreciation. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) was $24.8 million, up from $13.4 million.
The shares closed at $1.81 on 9 November 2026, before the report. They closed at $1.72 on 10 November 2026 and at $1.75 on 11 November 2026. At $1.75 the shares sit far below the $5 to $7 targets that three Buy-rated brokers set after the report. That gap suggests the market gives the HPC ramp little weight until it shows up in a larger share of revenue.
The rating is Low because of the mix. The HPC gain is real, but it is small next to $76.0 million of mining revenue in a quarter that included a mining impairment.
Bullish and bearish views on HIVE Digital Technologies Ltd.
The bull case on HIVE Digital Technologies Ltd. (HIVE), in brief: HPC revenue rose as promised. The bear case: mining still drives the numbers.
Bull case
- HPC revenue rose as promised. BUZZ HPC revenue reached $8.8 million in the quarter ended 30 September 2026. That is up 25.3% from the June quarter, driven by an NVIDIA B200 cluster (company results via GuruFocus, 10 November 2026). Crypto Briefing reported the company's figures of a roughly $40 million annualized run-rate and $185 million of contracted revenue on 10 November 2026.
- Revenue beat expectations. Revenue of $84.882 million topped the $80.273 million estimate (Benzinga headline, 9 November 2026).
- Cash flow before non-cash charges improved. Adjusted EBITDA rose 85% to $24.8 million in the quarter. Cash stood at $139 million and digital currency holdings at $22.6 million on 30 September 2026.
- The Cohere cluster is funded with debt instead of new shares. On 28 October 2026, BUZZ Alpha Cloud secured a roughly $129 million, three-year loan at a 9.0% fixed rate to buy 2,303 GB200 GPUs, about 80% of the cost (Cantech Letter, Crypto Briefing).
- Brokers kept Buy ratings. Chardan kept a Buy rating with a $7 target on 10 November 2026. B. Riley Securities and HC Wainwright kept Buy ratings and lowered their targets to $5 on 11 November 2026 (Benzinga headlines).
Bear case
- Mining still drives the numbers. Bitcoin mining supplied $76.0 million of the $84.9 million quarter, and revenue fell 2.7% year on year. The $31.2 million impairment on mining equipment in the quarter shows pressure on the older mining fleet.
- The loss per share missed estimates. The GAAP loss of $0.29 per share was wider than the $(0.18) estimate (Benzinga headline, 9 November 2026). The quarter's $78.7 million net loss compares with $15.8 million a year earlier.
- Every broker target moved down. Chardan, B. Riley and HC Wainwright all lowered their price targets between 10 November 2026 and 11 November 2026 while keeping Buy ratings.
- A director sold shares in the open market. SEC Form 4 filings show director Dave Perrill sold 100,000 shares at $2.72 on 19 August 2026 and 12,500 at $2.75 on 7 October 2026. The CEO's 50,000-share filing on 21 September 2026 was an option exercise, which is not a purchase in the market.
- Debt and dilution sit beside the build-out. The Cohere loan carries interest at 9.0% before the cluster earns revenue. Delivery was expected towards the end of 2026 as of 28 October 2026. The at-the-market equity program still had roughly $214.7 million of capacity on 22 June 2026.
Price setup
The shares closed at $1.75 on 11 November 2026, near the 52-week closing low of $1.63 set on 5 November 2026. The last close is 67.2% below the 52-week intraday high of $5.34 from 22 June 2026. The three-month price change is −32.2%, from $2.58 on 13 August 2026.
On 11 November 2026, the 50-day moving average was $2.54 and the 200-day was $2.77, with the shares below both. The 50-day sits under the 200-day. The report did not lift the shares: the first session after it, 10 November 2026, closed at $1.72, below the $1.81 close of 9 November 2026.
The case turns on two prices. The first is the $1.63 low of 5 November 2026. The second is the 15 October 2026 close, the highest close of the 20 sessions to 6 November 2026. A recovery through that close and toward the 50-day average would show buying the HPC numbers have not yet drawn.
Catalysts ahead
- ~3 December 2026 (est.): Monthly bitcoin production and BUZZ HPC update. This is the first company update on GPU cloud revenue and cluster delivery since the fiscal Q2 report, and it shows whether the roughly $40M run-rate is rising.
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): End of the expected Q4 2026 delivery window for the 2,303 GB200 GPUs for Cohere. The Cohere contract earns revenue only after delivery. Delivery on time would lift HPC's share of revenue, and a slip into 2027 would leave the 9.0% loan accruing interest with no matching revenue.
- ~15 February 2027 (est.): Fiscal Q3 2027 results, quarter ending 31 December 2026. Shows whether HPC revenue rises above the $8.8M of the September quarter and how much stock was sold through the at-the-market program.
What would change the view
A daily close above $2.22, the 15 October 2026 close and the highest of the 20 sessions to 6 November 2026, which would show the shares recovering and leading the S&P 500; a company report that the 2,303 GB200 GPUs are delivered and earning revenue before 31 December 2026 would also count against this call.
What it trades with
HIVE trades with the bitcoin price and with other bitcoin miners building AI cloud capacity, because $76.0 million of its $84.9 million fiscal second-quarter revenue came from mining. Its GPU cloud business ties it to AI computing demand and to the cost of GPU-backed borrowing: lenders charged a 9.0% fixed rate on the 28 October 2026 Cohere loan. The Nasdaq line in US dollars and the TSX Venture Exchange (TSXV) line in Canadian dollars move apart with the CAD/USD exchange rate.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Fiscal Q2 2027 revenue was $84.9M (+7.3% quarter on quarter, −2.7% year on year): $76.0M bitcoin mining from 1,070 BTC and $8.8M HPC, up 70.7% year on year. HIVE fiscal Q2 2027 results (8-K 10 November 2026), via Crypto Briefing · as of
- GAAP net loss was $78.7M, including a $31.2M non-cash mining equipment impairment and $54.9M depreciation; adjusted EBITDA was $24.8M versus $13.4M the prior quarter. HIVE fiscal Q2 2027 results, via Crypto Briefing and Quantisnow 8-K summary · as of
- Cash and equivalents were $139M and digital currency holdings $22.6M at quarter end. HIVE fiscal Q2 2027 results, via Crypto Briefing · as of
- BUZZ HPC annualized revenue run-rate about $40M and contracted revenue $185M, as reported by the company. Crypto Briefing, 10 November 2026 · as of
- Fiscal Q2 loss per share of $(0.29) missed the $(0.18) estimate; sales of $84.882M beat the $80.273M estimate. Benzinga headline, 9 November 2026 · as of
- Chardan kept a Buy rating with a $7 target; B. Riley Securities and HC Wainwright kept Buy ratings and lowered targets to $5. Benzinga analyst headlines, 10 November 2026 and 11 November 2026 · as of
- BUZZ Alpha Cloud secured a roughly $129M, three-year loan at a 9.0% fixed rate, about 80% of cost, to buy 2,303 NVIDIA GB200 GPUs for Cohere. HIVE announcement via Cantech Letter and Crypto Briefing · as of
- Director Dave Perrill sold 100,000 shares at $2.72 on 19 August 2026 and 12,500 shares at $2.75 on 7 October 2026 in the open market. SEC Form 4 filings, 19 August 2026 and 8 October 2026 · as of
Sources
- HIVE Digital posts 85% jump in adjusted EBITDA for fiscal Q2 2027 · cryptobriefing.com ·
- HIVE Q2 FY2027 revenue $84.9M, down 2.7% y/y; BUZZ HPC up 70.7%; GAAP net loss $78.7M on $31.2M impairment; Adj. EBITDA $24.8M · quantisnow.com ·
- HIVE Digital Technologies Reports Q2 FY2027 Revenue of $84.9 Million, Exceeding Estimates, with GAAP Net Loss of $0.29 per Share · gurufocus.com
- cantechletter.com
- Crypto Briefing
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