BTGO · BitGo Holdings
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $5.41
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
23.8% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $5.41, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 25.8% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $5.41, which is above the $5.10 close of 9 November 2026 before the third-quarter report and would show the shares recovering the post-results drop and leading the S&P 500. A fourth-quarter report with positive adjusted EBITDA would also prove the call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Financials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 9 November 2026
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 2,852
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −50.9
- Operating margin (%)
- −0.7
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −44.8
All filed numbers
What BitGo Holdings reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 2,852 | −50.9 | −0.7 |
| first filed | 4,329 | +79.6 | −0.4 |
| first filed | 3,774 | +112.6 | −0.5 |
| first filed | 5,811 | — | 0.1 |
| first filed | 2,411 | — | −0.2 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 59.6 |
| Net income ($M) | 44.1 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) | Not reported |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Capital spending ($M) | Not available |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 143 |
| Debt ($M) short-term borrowings | 188 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −44.8 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | 3.2 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 17.7 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) including non-controlling interests | 487 |
| Market value ($M) | Not available |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not available |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not available |
| Price to book value (×) | Not available |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not available |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): the share of shares outstanding is not available, 4.4 days of average trading to cover, +5.8% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $7.5M |
The thesis
BitGo Holdings is more likely to lag the S&P 500 because its third-quarter report showed that the core business is still shrinking and losing money. Rising client numbers and the NYDIG trading purchase have not yet changed that. The fourth-quarter report settles it: it has to show adjusted operating earnings turning positive.
In its 8-K results release of 9 November 2026, the company reported a $4.3 million loss in adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) for the third quarter. That compares with a $4.2 million loss in the second quarter and a $13.5 million profit a year earlier. Revenue after direct costs fell 12.1% from the second quarter to $37.3 million. Rosenblatt said on 10 November 2026 that this missed its own $51 million estimate and the $47 million consensus.
The shares fell 16.3% on 10 November 2026 to close at $4.27, a 52-week closing low. They closed at $4.36 on 11 November 2026. At that price the market treats the adjusted loss as lasting. Four analyst firms cut their targets after the report, and none of them yet sees a turn.
Bullish and bearish views on BitGo Holdings, Inc.
The bull case on BitGo Holdings, Inc. (BTGO), in brief: client count keeps rising. The bear case: core revenue is shrinking.
Bull case
- Client count keeps rising. BitGo had 6,640 clients at the end of the third quarter, up from 5,833 in the second quarter and 4,988 a year earlier (8-K results, 9 November 2026).
- Reported net income turned positive. Net income was $44.1 million, or $0.36 per diluted share, in the third quarter. That compares with a $19.0 million loss in the second quarter. The swing came from a $71.5 million unrealized gain on the company's 2,399 bitcoin, worth $200.4 million at 30 September 2026 (8-K results, 9 November 2026).
- The company is buying back shares. BitGo repurchased $24.7 million of stock in the third quarter under the $50 million authorization announced on 17 June 2026 (8-K results, 9 November 2026).
- New custody and token mandates keep coming. BitGo was named custodian for Formation Securities' tokenized trading venue on 9 November 2026 and announced a strategic position in the Aptos token on 10 November 2026 (company news).
- Analysts still see the shares higher. On 10 November 2026, Canaccord Genuity cut its target from $15 to $12 and kept a buy rating, while Mizuho and Wells Fargo each cut theirs to $9 from $11. Rosenblatt cut to $9 from $10 and kept a buy rating (Benzinga, Investing.com).
Bear case
- Core revenue is shrinking. Subscriptions and services revenue was $25.6 million in the third quarter, down 7.2% from the second quarter and 24.5% from a year earlier. Revenue after direct costs fell 32.1% from a year earlier (8-K results, 9 November 2026).
- Operating losses did not narrow. The third quarter was the first to include NYDIG's institutional trading business, bought on 27 August 2026. Even so, the adjusted EBITDA loss widened slightly, from $4.2 million to $4.3 million. The release gives no separate figure for what NYDIG contributed.
- Assets on the platform fell. Reported assets on platform were $59.9 billion at the end of the third quarter, against $65.2 billion in the second quarter and $104.0 billion a year earlier (8-K results, 9 November 2026).
- The results missed estimates. Rosenblatt put net revenue near $37 million, against the $47 million consensus (Investing.com, 10 November 2026). The release gave no outlook for the fourth quarter.
- Two senior executives left during the integration. The chief financial officer left on 15 September 2026. The chief operating officer's resignation took effect on 16 October 2026, according to an 8-K filed on 25 September 2026 that reported no disagreement.
Price setup
The last close was $4.36 on 11 November 2026. That is below the 50-day moving average of $6.59 and the 200-day moving average of $7.73. Over three months the shares have fallen 21.2% from the 13 August 2026 reference close of $5.53.
The 52-week closing low is $4.27, set on 10 November 2026, the session after the report. The last pre-report close was $5.10, on 9 November 2026. The shares closed at $5.42 on 4 November 2026, the day before the 5 November 2026 break to $4.76.
The 52-week intraday high is $24.50, from 22 January 2026, the month of the $18 initial public offering (IPO). The last close is 82.2% below that high. Insider activity in SEC Form 4 filings shows only shares withheld for tax. Those include 356 shares withheld at $4.86 on 6 November 2026 for Chief Revenue Officer Fang Chen, filed on 10 November 2026.
Catalysts ahead
- ~March 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results. Shows whether NYDIG trading and client growth turn the adjusted EBITDA loss into a profit and stop the fall in subscriptions and services revenue.
- ~December 2026 (est.): Possible resale registration covering shares issued in the NYDIG transaction. A registration would show new share supply reaching the market while the shares sit at their 52-week closing low.
What would change the view
A daily close above $5.41, which is above the $5.10 close of 9 November 2026 before the third-quarter report and would show the shares recovering the post-results drop and leading the S&P 500. A fourth-quarter report with positive adjusted EBITDA would also prove the call wrong.
What it trades with
BitGo's earnings are tied to crypto markets in two ways. Trading activity drives revenue: total reported revenue, including digital-asset sales, fell 50.9% from a year earlier to $2.85 billion in the third quarter. Bitcoin prices drive reported net income through the company's 2,399-bitcoin treasury, which produced a $71.5 million unrealized gain in the same quarter (8-K results, 9 November 2026).
A crypto rally would lift both measures at once. A slump would cut both. The shares are likely to move more with digital-asset prices than with the broader equity market.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA was a $4.3 million loss, versus a $4.2 million loss in Q2 2026 and a $13.5 million profit in Q3 2025. BitGo Q3 2026 results, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Revenue after direct costs was $37.3 million in Q3 2026, down 12.1% quarter on quarter and 32.1% year on year. BitGo Q3 2026 results, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Subscriptions and services revenue was $25.6 million in Q3 2026, down 7.2% quarter on quarter and 24.5% year on year. BitGo Q3 2026 results, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Q3 2026 net income was $44.1 million ($0.36 per diluted share), including a $71.5 million unrealized gain on 2,399 bitcoin valued at $200.4 million. BitGo Q3 2026 results, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- BitGo had 6,640 clients at the end of Q3 2026, versus 5,833 in Q2 2026 and 4,988 in Q3 2025. BitGo Q3 2026 results, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- BitGo repurchased $24.7 million of common stock in Q3 2026 under its $50 million authorization. BitGo Q3 2026 results, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Rosenblatt cut its BitGo target to $9 from $10, keeping a Buy rating, after Q3 net revenue of about $37 million missed its $51 million estimate and the $47 million consensus. Investing.com, Rosenblatt note · as of
- Canaccord Genuity cut its BitGo target to $12 from $15; Mizuho and Wells Fargo each lowered theirs to $9 from $11. Benzinga analyst roundup · as of
Sources
- BITGO HOLDINGS, INC. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov
- Rosenblatt cuts BitGo stock price target on revenue miss · ca.investing.com ·
- These Analysts Cut Their Forecasts On BitGo After Q3 Results · benzinga.com
- BTGO Maintained by Canaccord Genuity -- Price Target Lowered to $12 · gurufocus.com
- BTGO Maintained by Mizuho -- Price Target Lowered to $9.00 · gurufocus.com
- BTGO (NYSE:BTGO) Price Target Cut to $9.00 by Analysts at Wells Fargo & Company · defenseworld.net ·
- BitGo Q3 Revenue Falls 51% YoY to $2.9 Billion Amid Crypto Slump · panabee.com
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