PCOR · Procore Technologies
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a daily close below $61.73
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
25.7% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close below $61.73, on record since 10 November 2026. The shares are up 33.0% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close below $61.73, the 27 October 2026 close from before the third-quarter report, which would erase the post-earnings gain. A cut to the $1.557-1.559 billion fiscal 2026 revenue outlook or a lowered 25% fiscal 2027 operating margin target would also break the case.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 5 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 402
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +18.7
- Gross margin (%)
- 80.4
- Operating margin (%)
- −1.8
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 356
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −314
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 8.0
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- 3.1
All filed numbers
What Procore Technologies reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 402 | +18.7 | 80.4 | −1.8 |
| first filed | 375 | +15.8 | 79.9 | 1.2 |
| first filed | 359 | +15.7 | 80.1 | −4.4 |
| first filed | 349 | +15.6 | 80.1 | −12.3 |
| first filed | 339 | +14.5 | 79.7 | −4.4 |
| first filed | 324 | +13.9 | 79.1 | −9.3 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −3.7 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −34.4 | −4.6 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +0.1 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 375 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 19.8 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 356 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 614 |
| Debt ($M) convertible debt | 928 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −314 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +25.0% on a year | 722 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) +28.6% on a year | 1,800 |
| Receivables ($M) | 261 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 1,085 |
| Market value ($M) | 11,612 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 11,926 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 8.0 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 10.7 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 3.1 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 13.5% of shares outstanding sold short, 5.9 days of average trading to cover, +4.3% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $10.9M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $79.2M |
The thesis
Procore Technologies' shares have a modest edge over the S&P 500 because the third quarter beat guidance on revenue and margin and the company raised its 2026 outlook. The fourth-quarter report, expected around February 2027, settles whether growth holds and whether the 25% fiscal 2027 margin target stays credible.
Revenue for the quarter to 30 September 2026 was $402.3 million, up 19% including about 2 points from DroneDeploy, against guidance of $382.0 million to $384.0 million (company 8-K, 3 November 2026). The 10-Q filed 5 November 2026 compares it with $338.85 million a year earlier. Non-GAAP (adjusted) operating margin was 23.5%, against guidance of 19% to 19.5%.
The shares closed at $77.23 on 12 November 2026, up 29.1% over three months and 4.0% below the 52-week intraday high of $80.41 set on 12 November 2025. The price already reflects a strong quarter: AAII put the forward price-to-earnings multiple at 43.7 on 7 November 2026, against an industry median of 36.2. The edge over the index is modest for that reason.
Bullish and bearish views on Procore Technologies, Inc.
The bull case on Procore Technologies, Inc. (PCOR), in brief: revenue beat the top of guidance. The bear case: valuation already prices the beat.
Bull case
- Revenue beat the top of guidance. Third-quarter revenue of $402.3 million cleared the $384.0 million top of the range (8-K, 3 November 2026). Excluding DroneDeploy, Finsee calculates growth of 17.3%, against the 13.3% the company had guided on 29 July 2026.
- The 2026 outlook rose on two lines. Revenue guidance moved to $1.557 billion to $1.559 billion from $1.510 billion to $1.514 billion on 3 November 2026, and the $24 million from DroneDeploy does not account for the whole increase. The adjusted margin outlook rose to 19.0% to 19.5% from 18.5% to 19.0% (Finsee).
- Contracted revenue grew faster. Current remaining performance obligations, the revenue under contract for the next 12 months, reached $1.17 billion on 30 September 2026, up 28.9% against 21.9% a quarter earlier (Finsee). The release does not separate DroneDeploy's share, so the acceleration overstates the existing business by an undisclosed amount.
- Cash flow funds a new repurchase. Free cash flow was $73.0 million in the third quarter, up 8% (8-K, 3 November 2026). The board authorized a new $300 million repurchase program on 30 October 2026, running to 30 October 2027.
- Analysts reset targets above the close. UBS raised its target to $95 on 6 November 2026, and Citizens moved to $91 on 5 November 2026 (Benzinga). Goldman Sachs, TD Cowen, Cantor Fitzgerald, Piper Sandler and BTIG moved to $90, and Loop Capital upgraded the shares to Buy with a $93 target on 5 November 2026.
Bear case
- Valuation already prices the beat. AAII measured a 19.3% rise from the announcement through 6 November 2026 and a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 43.7 against an industry median of 36.2. Barclays' and Guggenheim's $85 targets of 5 November 2026 sit close to the 12 November 2026 close of $77.23.
- Margin steps down next quarter. Fourth-quarter guidance calls for an adjusted operating margin of 15.5% to 16.0%, against the 25% target for fiscal 2027 (8-K, 3 November 2026). Consensus fourth-quarter earnings per share are $0.38 (AAII, 7 November 2026), against $0.51 in the third quarter.
- Growth without the deal is guided slower. Fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $420 million to $422 million includes $19 million from DroneDeploy (8-K, 3 November 2026). Finsee puts growth without the deal at 15.2% at the midpoint, against 17.3% in the third quarter.
- Large holders keep releasing shares. ICONIQ Strategic Partners III, a 10% owner, and director William Griffith each reported a 2,000,000-share "other acquisition or disposition" on 6 November 2026 (SEC Form 4 filings, 10 November 2026). ICONIQ's 2,000,000-share filing of December 2025 was a distribution in kind to its limited partners, who can then sell the shares.
- Insiders sold into the rally. Director Elisa Steele sold 3,337 shares at $69.10 and Chief Legal Officer Benjamin Singer sold 2,586 shares at $75.00 on 4 November 2026, and director Kevin O'Connor sold 15,384 shares at an average $57.53 on 2 November to 3 November 2026, all under Rule 10b5-1 plans (SEC Form 4 filings). Chairman Craig Courtemanche Jr. exercised and sold 56,122 shares at an average $56.19 on 12 October 2026, a repeat of his 10 September 2026 sale.
- Reported profit carries deal costs and net debt. The GAAP (reported) loss was $0.03 a share against a $0.07 profit estimate (GuruFocus), after $26.6 million of one-time deal expenses (Finsee). Convertible notes stood at $927.9 million on 30 September 2026, against $540.0 million of cash and $73.9 million of current marketable securities (8-K).
Price setup
Adjusted daily closes show the path: $59.80 on 14 August 2026, $75.60 on 5 November 2026, $75.33 on 6 November 2026, $77.52 on 11 November 2026 and $77.23 on 12 November 2026. On 12 November 2026 the 50-day moving average was $58.74 and the 200-day moving average $53.71, both well below the price.
The nearest level above is the 52-week intraday high of $80.41 from 12 November 2025. Just beyond it sits the convertible notes' initial conversion price near $82.89 (8-K), a level where hedging tied to the notes can add selling. The $85 to $95 range of analyst targets from Barclays, Guggenheim and UBS lies above both.
The shares held their post-report gain through the five sessions after 5 November 2026, closing between $75.33 and $77.52 despite the insider sales and the ICONIQ distribution. The 52-week closing low of $38.30 on 25 June 2026 shows how far the shares have come in under five months.
Catalysts ahead
- ~February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 report, the first full quarter with DroneDeploy. Likely the first fiscal 2027 revenue outlook; shows whether growth without the deal holds near the guided 15.2% and whether the 25% fiscal 2027 margin target stays in place.
What would change the view
A daily close below $61.73, the 27 October 2026 close from before the third-quarter report, which would erase the post-earnings gain. A cut to the $1.557-1.559 billion fiscal 2026 revenue outlook or a lowered 25% fiscal 2027 operating margin target would also break the case.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- Margin recovery from the guided fourth-quarter level to the 25% fiscal 2027 target proves harder than planned. Confirmed by: management lowers, defers or withdraws the 25% target, or fourth-quarter adjusted operating margin falls below the 15.5% to 16.0% guidance.
- Acquired revenue masks slowing growth in the existing business. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter growth without DroneDeploy comes in below the 15.2% midpoint Finsee calculates, or gross revenue retention falls below 95%.
- Shares distributed by ICONIQ funds and insider plan sales add supply near the prior high. Confirmed by: further ICONIQ Form 4 distributions or Form 144 filings by its limited partners, alongside falling closes on rising volume.
- A high valuation leaves little room if software multiples compress. Confirmed by: analyst target cuts on valuation grounds or a falling forward multiple without a change in Procore's guidance.
- Higher interest rates hold back the construction spending that drives demand. Confirmed by: analyst target cuts citing construction conditions, as DA Davidson made in July 2026, or slower growth in customers above $100K of annual recurring revenue.
What it trades with
Procore's case rests on its own 3 November 2026 numbers: revenue, the raised outlook and the margin target. A broad sell-off in high-multiple software would raise the bar on the 43.7 forward multiple AAII measured without changing the business; a lowered outlook would change it.
Demand also ties to construction activity. DA Davidson cut its target to $56 from $60 in July 2026, citing construction conditions and interest rates (Investing.com). Procore's organic customers with more than $100,000 of annual recurring revenue reached 2,968 on 30 September 2026, up 14%, and gross revenue retention was 95% (8-K).
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Q3 2026 revenue was $402.3M, up 19% including about 2 points from DroneDeploy, against guidance of $382.0M-$384.0M; adjusted operating margin was 23.5% against 19%-19.5% guidance. Procore Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1; Form 10-Q filed 5 November 2026 · as of
- Fiscal 2026 revenue guidance was raised to $1,557.0M-$1,559.0M from $1,510M-$1,514M, including $24M from DroneDeploy; the 25% fiscal 2027 non-GAAP operating margin target remains in place. Procore Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1; Finsee Q3 2026 review · as of
- Q4 2026 guidance is revenue of $420M-$422M, including $19M from DroneDeploy, with a non-GAAP operating margin of 15.5% to 16.0%. Procore Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Remaining performance obligations were $1.81B, up 28%; organic customers above $100K of annual recurring revenue were 2,968, up 14%; gross revenue retention was 95%. Procore Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Non-GAAP EPS was $0.51 against a $0.45 consensus estimate; consensus Q4 EPS is $0.38; forward P/E was 43.7 against an industry median of 36.2. AAII, 7 November 2026; Procore Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Free cash flow was $73.0M, up 8%; cash was $540.0M, current marketable securities $73.9M and non-current convertible notes $927.9M. Procore Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- UBS raised its target to $95, Citizens to $91, Loop Capital upgraded to Buy at $93, and Goldman Sachs, TD Cowen, Cantor Fitzgerald, Piper Sandler and BTIG moved to $90. Benzinga and fiscal.ai, 5 November 2026 and 6 November 2026 · as of
- ICONIQ Strategic Partners III and director William Griffith each reported a 2,000,000-share other acquisition or disposition dated 6 November 2026. SEC Form 4 filings, 10 November 2026 · as of
Sources
- PROCORE TECHNOLOGIES, INC. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- Procore (PCOR) Q3 2026 earnings review · finsee.ai
- What You Need to Know About Procore Technologies, Inc.'s Q3 Earnings · aaii.com ·
- Procore Technologies Reports Q3 Fiscal 2026 Revenue of $402 Million, GAAP EPS of $(0.03) Misses Estimates · gurufocus.com
- Procore Technologies Aktie: Loop Capital stuft auf Buy hoch und hebt Kursziel auf 93 Dollar · goldesel.de
- Quantisnow ·
Related · shared themes
APPN
Appian
Appian's third-quarter 2026 revenue rose 25% to $234.6 million and full-year guidance went up again, giving the shares a modest edge over…
ZETA
Zeta Global Holdings
Zeta Global's shares hold a modest edge over the S&P 500 after the company beat its third-quarter guide and raised 2026 revenue guidance to…
GTLB
GitLab
GitLab's case is that Flex, its usage-based pricing for AI coding agents, lifts fiscal Q3 revenue above the $281–$283 million guidance. The…
KVYO
Klaviyo
Klaviyo's third-quarter revenue beat, raised 2026 guidance and new $300 million buyback make its shares modestly likely to beat the S&P…
See also · stocks to watch