FET · Forum Energy Technologies
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $88.76
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
13.4% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $88.76, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 10.9% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $88.76, which would erase the decline since the 29 October 2026 results and show the shares leading the S&P 500; or fourth-quarter revenue above the $250 million top of guidance with Drilling and Completions book-to-bill above 100%.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Industrials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 30 October 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 237
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +20.7
- Gross margin (%)
- 31.4
- Operating margin (%)
- 8.4
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 62.1
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −92.5
- Price to earnings (×)
- 29.2
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 1.1
All filed numbers
What Forum Energy Technologies reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 237 | +20.7 | 31.4 | 8.4 |
| first filed | 226 | +13.2 | 31.5 | 9.1 |
| first filed | 209 | +8.0 | 29.2 | 5.3 |
| first filed | 202 | +0.6 | 30.2 | 6.3 |
| first filed | 196 | −5.6 | 20.5 | −3.1 |
| first filed | 200 | −2.7 | 29.7 | 7.4 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 15.2 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 30.2 | 11.2 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +3.2 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 68.5 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 6.5 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 62.1 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 35.2 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 128 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −92.5 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +13.0% on a year | 28.2 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | 43.3 |
| Receivables ($M) | 178 |
| Inventory ($M) | 245 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 318 |
| Market value ($M) | 882 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 974 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 1.1 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 15.2 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 29.2 |
| Price to book value (×) | 2.8 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 7.0 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 4.3% of shares outstanding sold short, 2.6 days of average trading to cover, −19.1% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $2.0M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $3.4M |
The thesis
Forum Energy Technologies beat third-quarter profit estimates and raised full-year guidance, but flat fourth-quarter guidance and drilling orders below revenue leave the shares more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The fourth-quarter report, estimated for late February 2027, settles whether orders and growth recover.
The shares closed at $75.77 on 11 November 2026. That is 17.6% below the 52-week intraday high of $91.99 set on 29 October 2026, the day of the results, and up from $67.60 on 5 November 2026. Company news lists no announcement after 3 November 2026 that explains the rebound.
At $75.77 the shares sit well above the 200-day moving average of $64.17, and the 52-week closing low was $29.05 on 12 November 2025. The market is still paying for most of the 2026 recovery, so the next report has to deliver growth, not just another beat.
The call fails if fourth-quarter orders in Drilling and Completions, the larger segment, run above revenue and management guides 2027 growth, and the shares recover the pre-results price.
Bullish and bearish views on Forum Energy Technologies, Inc.
The bull case on Forum Energy Technologies, Inc. (FET), in brief: profit beat estimates again. The bear case: Drilling orders trail revenue.
Bull case
- Profit beat estimates again. Third-quarter revenue was $236.8 million against $196.23 million a year earlier (10-Q filed 30 October 2026). Adjusted EBITDA, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, was $36 million, and adjusted earnings were $1.51 per share against a $1.22 estimate, according to Benzinga.
- Full-year guidance rose. On 29 October 2026 the company set 2026 revenue at $900–920 million and adjusted EBITDA at $123–129 million, with free cash flow of $66–71 million. Benzinga put its fourth-quarter revenue estimate at $221.25 million, below the $230–250 million guidance.
- Debt is falling. Net debt was $97 million and net leverage 0.9 times at the end of the third quarter, per the 30 October 2026 call highlights. Third-quarter free cash flow was $30 million.
- Downhole orders are strong. Artificial Lift and Downhole booked a -to-bill (orders divided by revenue) in the third quarter, per the 29 October 2026 results release. Management said the Premiere Torque Rings purchase cost $33 million in guaranteed consideration, at roughly four times its EBITDA.
- Management expects more activity in 2027. On the 30 October 2026 call, management forecast mid- to high-single-digit growth in US land activity for 2027. International revenue was up 31% year to date and Middle East revenue up 32%.
Bear case
- Drilling orders trail revenue. Drilling and Completions had a -to-bill in the third quarter against 113% in Artificial Lift and Downhole, and consolidated orders were $244 million at 103%, per the 29 October 2026 release.
- Fourth-quarter guidance is flat. The company guided fourth-quarter revenue to $230–250 million and adjusted EBITDA to $33–39 million on 29 October 2026. Earnings Whispers calculated on 30 October 2026 that the midpoint implies no growth from the third quarter.
- Some cash came forward. Management said about $10 million of third-quarter free cash flow was pulled forward from the fourth quarter, per the 30 October 2026 call highlights. Fourth-quarter free cash flow is guided to $25–30 million.
- Freight and tariff costs hit margin. Earnings Whispers reported that Artificial Lift and Downhole margin fell to 23.7% in the third quarter from 24.8% in the second.
- Insiders sold into the rally. General counsel John Ivascu sold 5,000 shares at an average of $90.13 on 26 October to 27 October 2026, and the chief financial officer sold 20,068 shares at an average of $78.13 on 20 August 2026 (SEC Form 4 filings). GuruFocus counted eight insider sales and no purchases over twelve months.
Price setup
Closes were $73.68 on 4 November 2026, $67.60 on 5 November 2026, $69.69 on 6 November 2026, $71.27 on 9 November 2026, $72.08 on 10 November 2026 and $75.77 on 11 November 2026. The shares have closed higher four sessions running and now sit above the 4 November 2026 close.
The 50-day moving average is $81.65 and the 200-day is $64.17, both as of the 11 November 2026 close. The shares are under the first and above the second. The three-month change is −8.1%.
The 52-week intraday high is $91.99 from 29 October 2026. Earnings Whispers showed the shares down 8.25% on the report day. Reclaiming the 50-day average would be the first sign that buyers are again paying for the guidance raise.
Catalysts ahead
- ~25 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 earnings report; the company has not announced the date. Tests the $230–250 million revenue guidance and shows whether Drilling and Completions orders recover above revenue and what growth management expects for 2027.
What would change the view
A daily close above $88.76, which would erase the decline since the 29 October 2026 results and show the shares leading the S&P 500; or fourth-quarter revenue above the $250 million top of guidance with Drilling and Completions book-to-bill above 100%.
What it trades with
Drilling and Completions produced $147 million of the $237 million of third-quarter revenue, so the shares carry direct exposure to US and international drilling activity. Management tied the outlook on the 30 October 2026 call to rig counts, longer laterals and more completion stages. Oilfield activity and crude-oil sentiment are likely to move the shares as much as company news.
Middle East revenue growth of 32% adds regional exposure, and management reported no meaningful order cancellations there on 30 October 2026. Data-center power generation came up on the call as an opportunity, with no figures attached. MarketBeat's forecast page, read on 6 November 2026, lists two covering analysts with opposite ratings, so coverage is thin.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $236.81 million against $196.23 million in the same quarter a year earlier. Forum Energy Technologies 10-Q, period ended 30 September 2026 · as of
- Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA was $36 million and adjusted diluted earnings were $1.51 per share against a $1.22 estimate. Forum Energy Technologies Q3 2026 results release; Benzinga · as of
- Full-year 2026 guidance was raised to revenue of $900–920 million, adjusted EBITDA of $123–129 million and free cash flow of $66–71 million. Forum Energy Technologies Q3 2026 results release · as of
- Fourth-quarter 2026 guidance is revenue of $230–250 million, adjusted EBITDA of $33–39 million and free cash flow of $25–30 million. Forum Energy Technologies Q3 2026 results release · as of
- Third-quarter orders were $244 million, a -to-bill; Drilling and Completions was 97% and Artificial Lift and Downhole 113%. Forum Energy Technologies Q3 2026 results release · as of
- About $10 million of third-quarter free cash flow was pulled forward from the fourth quarter; net debt was $97 million and net leverage 0.9 times. Q3 2026 earnings call highlights · as of
- General counsel John Ivascu sold 5,000 shares at an average of $90.13 on 26 October to 27 October 2026. SEC Form 4 filed 27 October 2026 · as of
- The shares closed at $75.77 on 11 November 2026, 17.6% below the 52-week intraday high of $91.99 set on 29 October 2026; the 50-day average was $81.65 and the 200-day average $64.17. Daily closes, split-adjusted · as of
Sources
- offshoresource.com ·
- Finviz ·
- Forum Energy Technologies Q3 Earnings Call Highlights · themarketsdaily.com ·
- Forum Energy Technologies (FET) Insider Sale: EVP, General Counsel & CCO John Ivascu Sells 5,000 Shares · gurufocus.com
- MarketBeat
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