FIGR · Figure Technology Solutions

The thesis

Figure Technology Solutions shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The company's 12 November 2026 guidance cut the fourth-quarter gross take rate to 3.1%–3.4%, down from 3.9% in the third quarter, and the Kiavi acquisition adds lower-margin volume and new debt. Two events settle it: preliminary fourth-quarter operating data, expected around 7 January 2027, and the fourth-quarter report, expected around 25 February 2027. Both show whether volume growth outruns the lower take rate.

The rating is Low because the third-quarter beat did not change where unit economics are heading. Total net revenue was $287.1 million, up 84% from a year earlier. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) were $0.36, against consensus of $251.565 million in revenue and $0.27 in EPS (company release and Benzinga, 12 November 2026). The board doubled the buyback authorization to $400 million the same day.

The market reaction was modest. The shares closed at $24.19 on 11 November 2026, $25.67 on 12 November 2026 and $25.22 on 13 November 2026, below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Needham kept its Buy rating on 13 November 2026 but cut its target to $50, citing valuation pressure while raising its growth estimates (Benzinga, 13 November 2026).

At the 13 November 2026 close, with filed inputs to 14 August 2026, the shares trade at 26.3 times earnings and 8.1 times sales. Those filed inputs come before the Kiavi deal. Debt was $963 million at 30 June 2026 and about $1.74 billion at 30 September 2026 on the third-quarter balance sheet, so the filed enterprise value of $5,754 million understates the debt the company now carries.

Bullish and bearish views on Figure Technology Solutions, Inc.

The bull case on Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. (FIGR), in brief: revenue and earnings beat clearly. The bear case: take rate guided sharply lower.

Bull case

• Revenue and earnings beat clearly. Third-quarter revenue of $287.1 million beat the $251.565 million consensus, and EPS of $0.36 beat $0.27 (Benzinga, 12 November 2026). Net income was $89.3 million (company release, 12 November 2026).
• Volume more than doubled. Loan marketplace volume was $5.796 billion in the third quarter, up 135% from a year earlier. That includes $677 million from Kiavi after the deal closed on 1 September 2026 (company release, 12 November 2026). Volume excluding Kiavi was $5.119 billion, inside the $4.8–5.2 billion guide (operating data release, 7 October 2026).
• Margin rose despite the deal. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) was $163.6 million in the third quarter, a 57.7% margin. Management kept its 60% medium-term margin target on the 12 November 2026 call.
• Buyback doubled. The board added $200 million to the repurchase authorization on 12 November 2026, for $400 million in total. Management said on the call that the original $200 million had not been used in the open market.
• Filed growth stays fast. The 10-Q filed 14 August 2026 shows revenue of $226 million in the quarter to 30 June 2026, up 112.7% from a year earlier, at a 34.5% operating margin. Net cash was $475 million at 30 June 2026, before the Kiavi financing.
• Small-business lending is scaling. Figure said on 22 October 2026 that its small-business financing volume ran above $500 million annualized, with $135 million funded in the third quarter.

Bear case

• Take rate guided sharply lower. The fourth-quarter gross take rate guide of 3.1%–3.4% compares with 3.9% in the third quarter and 5.2% a year earlier (release and call, 12 November 2026). Management said residential transition loans earn a 1.5%–2% gross take rate, and Connect home equity lines 2.9%–3.4%.
• Kiavi dilutes margin near term. Management said Kiavi ran at or below a 40% adjusted EBITDA margin before the deal. It also guided $18–23 million of added adjusted expenses in the fourth quarter against the third (earnings call, 12 November 2026).
• Debt has roughly tripled this year. Total debt was about $1.74 billion on 30 September 2026, against about $557 million on 31 December 2025. The deal was funded mainly by $600 million of 8.500% senior notes due 2031 (Form 8-K, 1 September 2026). The 12 November 2026 Form 8-K also reports a new material agreement and a direct financial obligation.
• Cash flow is negative. Operating cash flow was negative $86 million over the four quarters to 30 June 2026 (10-Q filed 14 August 2026). The diluted share count was up 181.4% from a year earlier in that quarter.
• Reporting is shifting. Figure folded Kiavi's investor loans into its volume metric and, on 12 November 2026, said it will emphasize gross take rate and contribution margin. Adjusted EBITDA has excluded acquisition-related costs since the second quarter of 2026.
• A short seller disputes the technology claim. Morpheus Research, which says it holds short positions, alleged on 28 September 2026 that Figure misrepresents its use of blockchain and cited 2025 delinquent balances of 5.46%. Figure called the claims a misunderstanding of its loan lifecycle.

Price setup

The shares closed at $25.22 on 13 November 2026. They made a 52-week closing low of $20.90 on 5 November 2026, then closed at $22.73, $24.52, $23.34, $24.19, $25.67 and $25.22 over the next six sessions. The rebound began before the report and held through it without extending.

On adjusted daily closes to 13 November 2026, the 50-day moving average is $28.34 and the 200-day moving average is $32.16. The shares are down 29.5% over three months, from $35.76 on 17 August 2026, and 67.7% below the $78.00 intraday high of 20 January 2026. A close back above the 200-day average would be the first sign that the market has looked past the take-rate cut. The $20.90 closing low of 5 November 2026 is the reference below.

In 2026 the standard deviation of 63-session returns across liquid US stocks was 27%, so a three-month call on one name carries wide error.

A common market view is that a large buyback supports a share price. The $400 million authorization equals a meaningful share of the $6,229 million market value on the filed basis, but management had not used the first $200 million in the open market by 12 November 2026.

Insider filings since mid-September show tax withholding and an option exercise, with no open-market purchases. Chief Capital Officer David Todd Stevens had 19,543 shares withheld for tax at $24.19 on 11 November 2026 (Form 4, 13 November 2026). Chief Executive Michael Tannenbaum had 148,216 shares withheld at an average of $23.95 on 22 October 2026 and 23 October 2026 (Form 4, 26 October 2026).

Catalysts ahead

• ~7 January 2027 (est.): Preliminary fourth-quarter 2026 operating data, estimated from the 7 October 2026 timing of the third-quarter release. Shows whether Loan Marketplace volume lands inside, above or below the $6.2–6.7 billion guide that includes a full quarter of Kiavi.
• ~25 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results. Tests the 3.1%–3.4% gross take rate guide, the size of Kiavi's margin drag, the first contribution-margin disclosure and how much of the $400 million buyback was used.
• Unscheduled: Possible prospectus supplement under the 2 October 2026 securities registration. A common-stock sale would offset the buyback and add shares near the lows; a debt offering would add to borrowing already near $1.74 billion.

What would change the view

A daily close above $32.55, just over the 200-day moving average, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; or fourth-quarter 2026 loan marketplace volume above the $6.7 billion top of the guide with a gross take rate above the 3.4% top of its range.

What it trades with

Figure trades with fintech and consumer-credit lenders because its revenue depends on loan origination volume. That volume moves with interest rates, home-equity demand and credit conditions. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.14% on 19 October 2026 (Benzinga), a level that weighs on mortgage-linked lending. Kiavi's residential transition loans to property investors add exposure to housing turnover and investor credit. The shares also trade with crypto-linked financial names because Figure presents its loan platform and its Figure OPEN venue as built on blockchain, the claim Morpheus disputes. A pullback by the buyers of Figure-originated loans would hit volume and take rate at the same time.