MQ · Marqeta
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $20.32
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
10.3% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $20.32, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 17.5% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $20.32, just under the 52-week intraday high set on 22 December 2025, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A 2027 gross profit growth outlook above the 7% top of the fourth-quarter guide would point the same way.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 3 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 176
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +7.9
- Gross margin (%)
- 69.3
- Operating margin (%)
- 3.6
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 698
- Price to earnings (×)
- 14.9
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 1.8
- Enterprise value to operating income (×)
- 331.5
All filed numbers
What Marqeta reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 176 | +7.9 | 69.3 | 3.6 |
| first filed | 176 | +17.0 | 69.2 | 2.1 |
| first filed | 166 | +19.2 | 70.9 | 1.3 |
| first filed | 172 | +26.7 | 69.7 | −4.8 |
| first filed | 163 | +27.6 | 70.1 | −6.4 |
| first filed | 150 | +20.1 | 69.2 | −6.1 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 11.0 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 129 | 115 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −5.7 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 140 |
| Capital spending ($M) | Not available |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 698 |
| Debt ($M) | None reported |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) no debt reported | 698 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) −15.5% on a year | 12.6 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) −17.9% on a year | 36.2 |
| Receivables ($M) | 40.4 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 837 |
| Market value ($M) | 1,928 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) no debt reported | 1,230 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) no debt reported | 1.8 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) no debt reported | 331.5 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 14.9 |
| Price to book value (×) | 2.3 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not available |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 4.3% of shares outstanding sold short, 4.6 days of average trading to cover, −3.3% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $76K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $100K | $2.4M |
The thesis
Marqeta's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. Revenue growth is slowing to 3–5% in the fourth quarter, and management expects a larger Cash App drag in 2027. The 2027 outlook, which the chief financial officer said will come in February, settles whether gross profit growth recovers.
The 3 November 2026 third-quarter report was mixed. Net revenue of $176.2 million, up 8%, reached the top of the company's 6–8% guide, per the 8-K. Full-year net revenue growth guidance fell to 11–12%. The chief financial officer said one customer is contracting directly with another issuing bank, which lowers revenue and cost of revenue equally and leaves gross profit unchanged. Full-year gross profit growth guidance stayed at 11–12%.
The shares closed at $18.51 on 11 November 2026, up 12.4% over three months on adjusted daily closes. That price already reflects the October customer wins, which still carry no disclosed revenue figure.
Bullish and bearish views on Marqeta, Inc.
The bull case on Marqeta, Inc. (MQ), in brief: gross profit guidance stayed intact. The bear case: revenue growth keeps slowing.
Bull case
- Gross profit guidance stayed intact. On 3 November 2026 Marqeta kept full-year gross profit growth at 11–12%. Third-quarter gross profit was $122.1 million, up 7%, and management said the revenue cut has no gross profit effect.
- Profit is growing faster than sales. Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, excluding certain items) was $38.8 million, up 28%, a 22% margin on net revenue. Operating income was $6.3 million against a $10.4 million loss a year earlier.
- Volume is broadening beyond Block. Total processing volume (the dollar value of card payments run on the platform) was $126.5 billion in the third quarter, up 29%. On the 3 November 2026 call, management said non-Block volume grew more than twice as fast as Block volume, and Block fell to 41% of net revenue from 44% a year earlier.
- Customer wins keep arriving. The third-quarter release lists the Square Credit Card on American Express, a Coinbase partnership, an expanded Google Wallet for kids collaboration and Satispay's debit card. Company news on 5 November 2026 added a fraud-prevention collaboration with Forter.
- This year's pricing headwinds do not repeat. The chief financial officer said on 3 November 2026 that two contract renewals and Block's price step-down, all 2026 headwinds, do not recur in 2027.
- Repurchases continue with cash available. Marqeta bought back 700,000 shares at an average $16.25 in the third quarter, with $140 million left on its $150 million authorization at 30 September 2026. Cash and equivalents were $697.5 million on that date.
Bear case
- Revenue growth keeps slowing. Net revenue grew 8% in the third quarter and the company guides 3–5% for the fourth. Benzinga put the guide at $177.3 million to $180.7 million against a $187.0 million consensus estimate on 3 November 2026.
- Cash App drag grows in 2027. The chief financial officer said new Cash App issuance slowed through the third quarter, with little to none expected on Marqeta by the end of December. She said the diversification away from it is still phasing in and will be a bigger drag in 2027.
- The October wins lack numbers. The 3 November 2026 call gave no revenue contribution for the Square Credit Card or the Coinbase program. The chief executive said the credit program launched about three years ago, before Marqeta supported American Express.
- Expenses will rise next year. The chief executive said on the call that expenses will grow in 2027 under the current plan, which narrows the room for margin gains after 2026's record margins.
- One customer still dominates. Block was 41% of third-quarter net revenue, and its Square debit agreement runs through 30 June 2028.
- Analysts are neutral after the report. UBS raised its target to $21 from $19 on 5 November 2026 and kept a Neutral rating, per Benzinga and fiscal.ai. That target sits above the 52-week intraday high.
- Headline earnings overstate the quarter. Third-quarter GAAP net income of $115.4 million and GAAP earnings per share of $1.09 include a $107 million non-cash tax benefit.
Price setup
The shares closed at $18.51 on 11 November 2026, 10.0% below the 52-week intraday high of $20.56 set on 22 December 2025. Closes since the report have held in a narrow range: $18.60 on 4 November 2026, $18.44 on 5 November 2026, $18.59 on 6 November 2026, $18.40 on 9 November 2026 and $18.34 on 10 November 2026.
The shares sit above both moving averages on adjusted closes: the 50-day average is $17.44 and the 200-day average is $16.64 as of 11 November 2026. The close on 13 August 2026 was $16.47, and the 52-week closing low was $15.04 on 22 June 2026.
Company repurchases averaged $16.25 in the third quarter. An officer, Crystal Sumner, sold 1,250 shares at $18.76 on 15 October 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan, per SEC Form 4 filings.
Catalysts ahead
- ~18 November 2026 (est.): Marqeta fireside chat at Citi's fintech conference, announced 5 November 2026; the day is estimated from the 2025 event. Management may add detail on the Cash App phase-out and on the revenue timing of the Square Credit Card and Coinbase programs.
- ~2 December 2026 (est.): Marqeta fireside chat at UBS's technology conference, announced 5 November 2026; the day is estimated from the 2025 event. A second occasion for management to address 2027 expense growth and gross profit before the February outlook.
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): End-December point at which the CFO expects little to no new Cash App issuance on Marqeta. Marks the start of the larger 2027 drag that management described and shows whether the timing holds.
- ~15 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 report and 2027 outlook; Marqeta has not set a date. Settles whether gross profit growth recovers once 2026 pricing headwinds lapse and the Cash App drag grows.
What would change the view
A daily close above $20.32, just under the 52-week intraday high set on 22 December 2025, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A 2027 gross profit growth outlook above the 7% top of the fourth-quarter guide would point the same way.
What it trades with
Marqeta's results are tied most directly to Block, at 41% of third-quarter net revenue, so Block's volume and Cash App issuance choices pass straight into Marqeta's numbers.
The stablecoin part of the story links the shares to digital-dollar card programs and to competitors there. Zerohash launched the Open USD stablecoin for partners including Marqeta on 27 October 2026, and Mastercard launched its BVNK integration on 15 October 2026.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 net revenue was $176.2 million, up 8% from $163.3 million; total processing volume was $126.5 billion, up 29%; gross profit was $122.1 million, up 7%. Marqeta Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K) · as of
- Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA was $38.8 million, up 28%, a 22% margin on net revenue; operating income was $6.3 million against a $10.4 million loss a year earlier. Marqeta Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K) · as of
- Fourth-quarter guidance is net revenue growth of 3–5%, gross profit growth of 5–7% and adjusted EBITDA growth in the mid-20s percent. Marqeta Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K) · as of
- Full-year 2026 net revenue growth guidance fell to 11–12% because one customer is contracting directly with another issuing bank; gross profit growth guidance stayed at 11–12%. 3 November 2026 earnings call · as of
- Block was 41% of third-quarter net revenue, down from 44% a year earlier; the CFO expects little to no new Cash App issuance on Marqeta by the end of December. 3 November 2026 earnings call · as of
- Marqeta repurchased 700,000 shares at an average $16.25 in the third quarter, with $140 million left on its $150 million authorization; cash and equivalents were $697.5 million. Q3 2026 earnings call; Q3 2026 8-K · as of
- UBS raised its Marqeta price target to $21 from $19 and kept a Neutral rating. Benzinga; fiscal.ai · as of
- Crystal Sumner (officer) sold 1,250 shares at $18.76 on 15 October 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. SEC Form 4 filed 16 October 2026 · as of
Sources
- SEC EDGAR
- Marqeta Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript · benzinga.com
- Marqeta (MQ) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript · aol.com
- What Marqeta (MQ) Said on Its Q3 Earnings Call · finance.yahoo.com
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