MRAM · Everspin Technologies
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $19.85
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
38.3% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $19.85, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 38.3% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $19.85, which would recover the shares' mid-August levels and show them leading the S&P 500 again. Fourth-quarter 2026 revenue above the $22.5 million top of guidance would point the same way.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 13 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 20.6
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +46.9
- Gross margin (%)
- 51.4
- Operating margin (%)
- −38.4
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −6.4
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 42.6
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 3.7
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −2.1
All filed numbers
What Everspin Technologies reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 20.6 | +46.9 | 51.4 | −38.4 |
| first filed | 18.7 | +41.9 | 53.9 | −23.4 |
| first filed | 14.9 | +13.2 | 52.7 | −18.3 |
| first filed | 14.8 | +11.8 | 50.8 | −7.2 |
| first filed | 14.1 | +16.3 | 51.3 | −11.0 |
| first filed | 13.2 | +24.1 | 51.3 | −14.9 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −7.2 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −9.9 | −7.2 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +5.3 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 4.2 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 10.7 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −6.4 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 43.0 |
| Debt ($M) non-current long-term debt plus current maturities | 0.5 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 42.6 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) at 30 June 2026, filed 5 August 2026 | 3.0 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 11.1 |
| Inventory ($M) | 14.0 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 67.7 |
| Market value ($M) | 301 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 258 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 3.7 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 4.4 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −2.1 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 12.8% of shares outstanding sold short, 4.3 days of average trading to cover, −5.9% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $580K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $18.9M |
The thesis
Everspin Technologies makes magnetoresistive random-access memory (MRAM) chips. The shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. Revenue is at a record, but legal and regulatory charges keep GAAP results negative, and the shares have fallen through the good news.
The company reported third-quarter revenue of $20.6 million on 28 October 2026, up 47% from $14.1 million a year earlier and above its $19.5–20.5 million guidance (8-K, 28 October 2026). The shares closed at $12.92 on 12 November 2026. That is 31.6% lower than the three-month reference close of $18.88 on 14 August 2026, and below the 50-day average of $15.17 and the 200-day average of $16.71. The market has priced the legal overhang more heavily than the revenue beat.
Chief Financial Officer Bill Cooper said on the 28 October 2026 earnings call that the litigation matter "will go to the ALJ at the end of this year" (an administrative law judge) and that fourth-quarter litigation costs should be "slightly lower" than the third quarter's $6 million. He said those costs "should reduce significantly" in 2027. The hearing and any ruling or settlement decide whether the charges fade or grow.
Bullish and bearish views on Everspin Technologies, Inc.
The bull case on Everspin Technologies, Inc. (MRAM), in brief: revenue keeps setting records. The bear case: legal and regulatory charges hit results.
Bull case
- Revenue keeps setting records. Third-quarter revenue of $20.6 million was the highest in the company's history, up from $18.7 million in the second quarter. MRAM product sales were $16.9 million (8-K, 28 October 2026).
- Guidance sits above the consensus cited. Fourth-quarter revenue guidance is $21.5–22.5 million, against the $20.875 million consensus Benzinga cited on 28 October 2026. Non-GAAP earnings guidance is $0.13–$0.18 per share.
- A memory shortage may add demand. CEO Sanjeev Aggarwal said on 28 October 2026 that fabs converting NOR flash capacity to DRAM are leaving distributors asking for MRAM replacements. He called it not yet material but possibly significant in the fourth quarter and the first quarter, and said it is in fourth-quarter guidance.
- Licensing and services revenue is rising. That line reached $3.7 million, up from $1.4 million a year earlier (8-K, 28 October 2026).
- Product dates are set. The company reiterated a 256-megabit xSPI prototype in the first half of 2027 and first qualified silicon from Microchip's Gresham fab in the second half of 2027 (earnings call, 28 October 2026).
- The shares have bounced from a recent low. The close rose from $10.73 on 5 November 2026 to $12.92 on 12 November 2026.
Bear case
- Legal and regulatory charges hit results. The third-quarter GAAP net loss was $7.2 million ($0.29 per share), including $6.0 million of litigation expense and a $2.7 million regulatory provision. Cooper said on the call that the provision relates to an export-control fine from the Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security, not yet settled (earnings call, 28 October 2026).
- Operating costs doubled. GAAP operating expenses were $18.5 million, against $8.8 million a year earlier (8-K, 28 October 2026).
- Losses are guided to continue. Fourth-quarter GAAP loss guidance is $0.08–$0.13 per share against non-GAAP profit of $0.13–$0.18 (8-K, 28 October 2026).
- Cash is flat despite record revenue. Cash and equivalents were $43.0 million on 30 September 2026, against $43.9 million on 30 June 2026.
- Three executives sold near $19. SEC Form 4 filings dated 5 October 2026 show open-market sales on 2 October 2026 at $19.08 a share by CEO Aggarwal (19,572 shares), CFO Cooper (3,115) and Vice President of Sales Sean Dougherty (7,691).
- A named short seller has not withdrawn. Kerrisdale Capital published a short report with a $14 objective on 19 May 2026. The shares closed below that level on 12 November 2026.
Price setup
The shares closed at $12.92 on 12 November 2026. That is 74.9% below the 52-week intraday high of $51.50 on 13 May 2026, and well above the 52-week closing low of $7.50 on 21 November 2025. The 3-month change is –31.6%.
The last close is under both the 50-day average ($15.17) and the 200-day average ($16.71). Closes since 5 November 2026 ran $10.73, $11.74, $12.92, $12.71, $13.45 and $12.92. The close of $13.93 on 27 October 2026, the last before the results, is the nearest recent reference above the range.
Crowding evidence is mixed. Retail attention was heavy in May, a 2x leveraged single-stock fund (MRAX) has traded since 11 August 2026, and daily ranges are wide. No share-issuance filing is listed since the results.
Catalysts ahead
- ~16 November 2026 (est.): Quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the period ended 30 September 2026; filing date unconfirmed. The legal-contingencies note could describe the litigation and the export-control provision behind $8.7 million of third-quarter charges, which the earnings release leaves unexplained.
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): Hearing before an administrative law judge in the litigation matter, which the CFO said goes there at the end of 2026. A ruling or settlement would show whether litigation costs fade in 2027 as management expects or keep draining cash.
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): End of the stated fourth-quarter window for customer availability of the 256-megabit PERSYST part through Teledyne HiRel. Shipments inside the window would turn a distribution agreement into an order path; slippage would weaken the one dated channel commitment.
- ~February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 results. Settles whether revenue meets the $21.5–22.5 million guidance and whether litigation costs and the NOR flash demand show up.
What would change the view
A daily close above $19.85, which would recover the shares' mid-August levels and show them leading the S&P 500 again. Fourth-quarter 2026 revenue above the $22.5 million top of guidance would point the same way.
What it trades with
Everspin trades as a microcap story stock, not with large memory makers. Its revenue leans on industrial automation, so industrial demand and Japan orders matter more to results than AI-server sentiment. The NOR flash shortage links it to memory supply, but management has not quantified that effect. Retail attention and the leveraged fund can amplify daily moves in either direction.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $20.6 million, up 47% from $14.1 million a year earlier, above the $19.5–20.5 million guidance; MRAM product sales were $16.9 million and licensing, royalty and services revenue $3.7 million. Everspin 8-K, Q3 2026 results release · as of
- Third-quarter GAAP net loss was $7.2 million ($0.29 per share), including $6.0 million of litigation expense and a $2.7 million regulatory provision; non-GAAP net income was $3.1 million ($0.12 per share). Everspin 8-K, Q3 2026 results release · as of
- Fourth-quarter 2026 guidance: revenue $21.5–22.5 million, GAAP loss $0.08–$0.13 per share, non-GAAP profit $0.13–$0.18 per share. Everspin 8-K, Q3 2026 results release · as of
- Cash and cash equivalents were $43.0 million on 30 September 2026, against $43.9 million on 30 June 2026; GAAP operating expenses were $18.5 million against $8.8 million a year earlier. Everspin 8-K, Q3 2026 results release; Q2 2026 results release · as of
- CFO Bill Cooper said the litigation matter goes to an administrative law judge at the end of 2026, fourth-quarter litigation costs should be slightly lower than the third quarter's, and 2027 costs should reduce significantly. Q3 2026 earnings call, 28 October 2026 · as of
- CFO Cooper said the $2.7 million provision relates to a Bureau of Industry and Security export-control fine that was not yet settled. Q3 2026 earnings call, 28 October 2026 · as of
- CEO Aggarwal said NOR flash shortages are prompting distributor requests for MRAM replacements, not yet material, possibly significant in the fourth and first quarters, and included in fourth-quarter guidance. Q3 2026 earnings call, 28 October 2026 · as of
- CEO Aggarwal sold 19,572 shares, CFO Cooper 3,115 shares and Vice President of Sales Dougherty 7,691 shares in open-market sales at $19.08 on 2 October 2026. SEC Form 4 filings dated 5 October 2026 · as of
Sources
- EVERSPIN TECHNOLOGIES INC. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- Everspin Technologies Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript · webull.com
- Everspin Revenue Climbs 46% Despite $8.7 Million Legal Headwind · panabee.com ·