MRNA · Moderna
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $310.86
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
28.1% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $310.86, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 246.5% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $310.86, well over the $280.80 intraday high of 9 November 2026, would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong; so would Moderna raising 2026 revenue growth guidance above the top of its 15%–25% range.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
The business · as of
Moderna sells mRNA vaccines for COVID-19, RSV and flu to governments, pharmacies and health systems. With Merck it is developing intismeran, a personalised cancer vaccine. Sales are seasonal and peak in the autumn. Revenue was $1,313 million in the quarter to 30 September 2026 (10-Q filed 6 November 2026).
What is changing, and what follows · as of
- What is changing now
- On 6 November 2026 Moderna reported $162 million of third-quarter net income and raised its 2026 revenue growth outlook to 15%–25%; at its 12 November 2026 Analyst Day it deferred formal 2027 guidance to the fourth-quarter report.
- What follows for the company
- Cash costs are guided at about $4 billion in 2027 and $4.0–$4.5 billion a year through 2030, mainly oncology, against −$1,970 million of free cash flow over four quarters and $5,171 million of cash at 30 September 2026.
- What follows for its customers, suppliers and competitors
- Merck (MRK) shares intismeran costs and profit evenly. Pfizer (PFE) and BioNTech (BNTX) compete in COVID-19 vaccines and face Moderna in patent litigation, as does Arbutus Biopharma (ABUS).
What the price assumes · as of
At the 13 November 2026 close (filed inputs to 6 November 2026) the shares trade at 35.2 times sales and 13.2 times book, with a −2.2% free-cash-flow yield and no meaningful earnings multiple. That holds only if intismeran and flu vaccines lift revenue enough to turn four-quarter free cash flow of −$1,970 million positive and keep the 9.9% third-quarter operating margin past the autumn season.
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 6 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 1,313
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +29.2
- Gross margin (%)
- 75.8
- Operating margin (%)
- 9.9
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −1,970
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 1,622
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 35.2
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −2.2
All filed numbers
What Moderna reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 1,313 | +29.2 | 75.8 | 9.9 |
| first filed | 145 | +2.1 | 35.9 | −562.1 |
| first filed | 389 | +260.2 | −145.5 | −356.8 |
| first filed | 678 | −29.8 | 33.3 | −126.4 |
| first filed | 1,016 | −45.4 | 79.6 | −25.6 |
| first filed | 142 | −41.1 | 16.2 | −638.7 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 171 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −2,789 | 162 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +10.3 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −1,785 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 185 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −1,970 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 5,171 |
| Debt ($M) convertible debt plus credit line | 3,549 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 1,622 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +27.2% on a year | 407 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 1,367 |
| Inventory ($M) | 313 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 6,837 |
| Market value ($M) | 90,380 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 88,758 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 35.2 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 13.2 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −2.2 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 8.1% of shares outstanding sold short, 1.8 days of average trading to cover, +5.6% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $33.9M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $81.6M |
Linked companies · as of
- Competitors:
- PFE, BNTX, NVAX, GSK
The thesis
Moderna's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The 246.5% three-month gain already reflects the surprise third-quarter profit and the melanoma vaccine. Formal 2027 guidance will not come until the fourth-quarter report. The next tests are the 18 November 2026 Jefferies conference appearance and the intismeran filing, which Moderna and Merck target for year-end 2026.
The business did improve. Moderna's 6 November 2026 report showed third-quarter revenue of $1,313 million, up 29.2% from a year earlier, and net income of $162 million, or $0.38 per diluted share (8-K and 10-Q). The company raised its 2026 revenue growth outlook to 15%–25% from up to 10%. Benzinga reported the shares up 9.1% that session.
The 12 November 2026 Analyst Day repeated that outlook but set no 2027 revenue target. PharmExec reported cash costs of about $4 billion in 2027 and $4.0–$4.5 billion a year through 2030, mainly for oncology. The shares have closed lower in each of the four sessions since the $269.00 close of 9 November 2026, ending at $223.37 on 13 November 2026. The rating is Low because a further gain needs news beyond what management has already guided, and the 2027 numbers are still unknown.
Bullish and bearish views on Moderna, Inc.
The bull case on Moderna, Inc. (MRNA), in brief: profit arrived ahead of forecasts. The bear case: 2027 guidance is still missing.
Bull case
- Profit arrived ahead of forecasts. Benzinga called the third-quarter result a surprise profit (6 November 2026). Net income of $162 million came in a quarter with a 75.8% gross margin and a 9.9% operating margin (10-Q, filed 6 November 2026).
- The balance sheet carries the spending. Cash and short-term investments were $5,171 million at 30 September 2026, against $3,549 million of debt (10-Q). Moderna guides year-end cash and investments to $8.1–$8.3 billion (8-K, 6 November 2026). Trefis reported that the figure excluding the convertible notes is $5.5–$5.7 billion (11 November 2026).
- Melanoma data support a filing. In the INTerpath-001 trial, intismeran plus Keytruda cut the risk of recurrence or death by 42% against Keytruda alone (PharmExec, 12 November 2026). Management said on the 6 November 2026 call that Moderna and Merck aim to file in 2026 and hope for approval in 2027 (Trefis).
- Some analysts moved toward the price. Piper Sandler raised its target to $305 from $230, at Overweight, on 9 November 2026 (Benzinga). Argus raised its target to $280 from $180 on 12 November 2026. Oddo BHF raised its target to $270 from $251 on 9 November 2026 (goldesel.de).
- The respiratory franchise has new data. On 11 November 2026 Moderna announced a JAMA Network Open real-world study comparing mNEXSPIKE with Pfizer and BioNTech's Comirnaty in adults 65 and older. Health Canada authorized the mFLUSIVA and mCOFLU vaccines for adults 50 and older on 5 November 2026.
Bear case
- 2027 guidance is still missing. Moderna deferred formal 2027 guidance to its fourth-quarter call (PharmExec, 12 November 2026). Investing.com and The Motley Fool tied the 12 November 2026 drop, to a $231.35 close, to that gap.
- Costs stay high through 2030. Cash costs are guided at $4.0–$4.5 billion a year from 2027 through 2030 (PharmExec, 12 November 2026). Free cash flow was −$1,970 million over the four quarters to 30 September 2026 (10-Q).
- Several targets sit below the price. Goldman Sachs raised its target to $195 from $137 on 9 November 2026 and kept Neutral (Benzinga). Rothschild & Co Redburn set $82 on 11 November 2026. Both are below the $223.37 close of 13 November 2026.
- The melanoma benefit starts late. The recurrence-free survival hazard ratio over months 0–6 was 0.99 (95% confidence interval 0.66–1.49), and overall survival is not mature (CancerNetwork, 22 October 2026). Moderna splits intismeran costs and profit evenly with Merck.
- Insiders sold during the rally. President Stephen Hoge sold 78,369 shares at an average $217.10 on 14 October 2026 and 15 October 2026, and 80,575 at an average $145.10 on 14 September 2026 and 15 September 2026. Chief Financial Officer James Mock sold 34,836 shares at $134.49 on 10 September 2026. All were under Rule 10b5-1 plans (SEC Form 4).
- A senior legal officer is leaving mid-litigation. An 8-K filed 13 November 2026 says Chief Legal Officer Shannon Thyme Klinger retires on 31 March 2027, with no successor named. Her agreement ties up to $8.0 million of contingent pay to the Arbutus–Genevant and Pfizer–BioNTech cases.
- Dilution is building. The diluted share count rose 10.3% from a year earlier in the quarter to 30 September 2026 (10-Q). The $3.0 billion of zero-coupon notes due 2032 convert at about $210.58 a share (8-K, 1 September 2026), below the last close.
Price setup
The shares closed at $223.37 on 13 November 2026. The 52-week intraday high is $280.80, set on 9 November 2026, and the last close is 20.5% below it. The 52-week closing low is $22.36, from 20 November 2025. The three-month change is 246.5%, measured from a $64.46 close on 17 August 2026.
As of 13 November 2026, the 50-day moving average stands at $201.67 and the 200-day at $96.41. The last close sits above both. The $210.58 conversion price of the convertible notes and the 50-day average are the nearest reference levels below the price.
The closes since results trace the move. The shares closed at $254.19 on 6 November 2026, results day, and peaked at a $269.00 close on 9 November 2026. They then fell for four straight sessions to $250.83, $248.69, $231.35 and $223.37. The 13 November 2026 close sits below the results-day close. Tests on US stocks that have more than doubled have found no reliable effect so far on what follows over three months.
Catalysts ahead
- 18 November 2026: Moderna presents at the Jefferies Global Health Care Conference. This is the first public appearance after the Analyst Day. It shows whether management repeats the year-end 2026 intismeran filing target and the 2026 guidance, or changes them.
- ~30 November 2026 (est.): Reported addition of Moderna to the MSCI World Index takes effect. Investing.com reported the addition on 12 November 2026. Inclusion puts the shares in more index funds that do not judge the pipeline.
- 12 December 2026: mRNA-2808 oral presentation at the American Society of Hematology meeting. This is the first dated readout for the blood-cancer program. It tests whether the oncology case extends beyond melanoma.
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): Intismeran biologics license application submission targeted by Moderna and Merck. A filing by year-end keeps a 2027 approval possible. A slip would delay the launch revenue the share price reflects.
- ~15 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 report with formal 2027 guidance. Moderna deferred 2027 revenue and cost guidance to this call. It shows whether revenue growth can cover cash costs of $4.0–$4.5 billion a year.
What would change the view
A daily close above $310.86, well over the $280.80 intraday high of 9 November 2026, would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong; so would Moderna raising 2026 revenue growth guidance above the top of its 15%–25% range.
What it trades with
Moderna trades on its own pipeline and earnings news more than on sector moves. Merck shares moved with Moderna's on the 22 October 2026 melanoma data because the two companies co-develop intismeran. Moderna joined the Nasdaq-100 on 9 October 2026, so flows into Nasdaq-100 index funds now touch the shares. Investing.com reported on 12 November 2026 that MSCI will add Moderna to the MSCI World Index; a common market view is that such additions bring passive buying around the effective date. Respiratory-vaccine sales tie the company to US vaccine policy and the fourth-quarter season, and to Pfizer (PFE) and BioNTech (BNTX) as direct competitors.
Caveats
- Intismeran autogene is co-developed with Merck, which shares costs and profit evenly, so Moderna keeps half of its economics. Form 10-Q for the third quarter of 2026 · as of
- Moderna has $3.0 billion of zero-coupon convertible notes due 2032 with an initial conversion price of about $210.58 per share. Form 8-K dated 1 September 2026 · as of
- Chief Legal Officer Shannon Thyme Klinger retires on 31 March 2027, and up to $8.0 million of her contingent pay depends on the outcome of the Arbutus–Genevant and Pfizer–BioNTech litigation. Form 8-K filed 13 November 2026 · as of
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $1,313 million, up 29.2% from a year earlier; net income was $162 million, or $0.38 per diluted share. Moderna Form 8-K and 10-Q for the third quarter of 2026 · as of
- 2026 revenue growth guidance was raised to 15%–25% from up to 10%; year-end cash and investments guidance is $8.1–$8.3 billion. Moderna Form 8-K, third-quarter 2026 press release · as of
- Moderna guided cash costs of about $4 billion in 2027 and $4.0–$4.5 billion a year for 2027–2030, and deferred formal 2027 guidance to the fourth-quarter 2026 call. PharmExec, Moderna 2026 Analyst Day coverage · as of
- INTerpath-001 recurrence-free survival hazard ratio was 0.58 (95% confidence interval 0.45–0.75) overall but 0.99 (0.66–1.49) over months 0–6; overall survival is not mature. CancerNetwork, ESMO 2026 LBA1 data release · as of
- Piper Sandler raised its target to $305 from $230 and Goldman Sachs to $195 from $137 on 9 November 2026; Rothschild & Co Redburn set $82 on 11 November 2026; Argus raised its target to $280 from $180 on 12 November 2026. Benzinga and company news analyst headlines · as of
- President Stephen Hoge sold 78,369 shares at an average $217.10 on 14 October to 15 October 2026 after exercising options, under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. SEC Form 4 filed 16 October 2026 · as of
- Chief Legal Officer Shannon Thyme Klinger signed a transitional services and retirement agreement with a retirement date of 31 March 2027; no successor was named. Moderna Form 8-K filed 13 November 2026 · as of
- Moderna announced a JAMA Network Open real-world study comparing mNEXSPIKE with Comirnaty in adults aged 65 and older. Moderna company announcement · as of
Sources
- Moderna, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov
- Moderna Lays Out Oncology-Driven Growth Plan at 2026 Analyst Day · pharmexec.com ·
- SEC EDGAR ·
- Why Moderna Stock Dropped on Thursday · fool.com ·
- Why is Moderna stock sliding today? · in.investing.com
- What Is Moderna Building That Investors Should Watch? · trefis.com ·
- Moderna Soars Another 9% as Piper Sandler Lifts Target to $305 on Raised Outlook · tikr.com
- Moderna Aktie: ODDO hebt Kursziel auf 270 Dollar, Goldman auf 195 Dollar · goldesel.de
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