NESR · National Energy Services Reunited
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $25.94
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
18.3% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $25.94, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 40.8% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $25.94, over both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which would show the shares leading again. A fourth-quarter 2026 revenue figure above the $504.7 million reported for the third quarter, with positive operating cash flow, would point the same way.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Energy
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 9 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 505
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +70.9
- Gross margin (%)
- 13.7
- Operating margin (%)
- 10.4
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 145
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −160
- Price to earnings (×)
- 19.7
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 1.3
All filed numbers
What National Energy Services Reunited reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 505 | +70.9 | 13.7 | 10.4 |
| first filed | 521 | +59.1 | 15.6 | 12.5 |
| first filed | 405 | +33.5 | 12.8 | 8.9 |
| first filed | 398 | — | 12.1 | 7.7 |
| first filed | 295 | — | 12.0 | 6.6 |
| first filed | 327 | — | 13.4 | 8.3 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 43.0 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 110 | 34.3 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +2.6 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 340 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 196 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 145 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 107 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt plus short-term borrowings | 267 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −160 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 263 |
| Inventory ($M) | 148 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 1,080 |
| Market value ($M) | 2,164 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 2,324 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 1.3 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 12.6 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 19.7 |
| Price to book value (×) | 2.0 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 6.7 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 6.7% of shares outstanding sold short, 2.1 days of average trading to cover, +27.5% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $6.2M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $142.0M |
The thesis
National Energy Services Reunited (NESR), a Middle East and North Africa oilfield-services company, is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. Third-quarter 2026 revenue of $504.7 million fell 3.1% from the second quarter's $520.8 million, and operating cash flow was negative $3.2 million. The fourth-quarter report, due in early 2027, shows whether revenue grows again.
The shares closed at $21.23 on 12 November 2026. That is 42.5% below the 52-week intraday high of $36.94 on 17 August 2026, and the three-month change is −41.5%. The 50-day average is $25.44 and the 200-day average is $25.62, both above the last close.
The 9 November 2026 report beat Wall Street's estimates on revenue and adjusted earnings per share. Benzinga recorded revenue of $504.725 million against a $495.932 million estimate and adjusted earnings of $0.38 per share against $0.35. Management's second-quarter call, however, had pointed to continued strong revenue growth and sequential margin improvement in the third quarter (Quartr summary, 10 August 2026). Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) fell 9.7% to $95.9 million.
Analysts reacted on 10 November 2026. UBS kept its Buy rating and cut its target to $40. Barclays kept Overweight and cut its target to $37. Both targets sit far above the share price.
Bullish and bearish views on National Energy Services Reunited Corp
The bull case on National Energy Services Reunited Corp (NESR), in brief: results beat the lowered bar. The bear case: revenue and margin both slipped.
Bull case
- Results beat the lowered bar. Third-quarter revenue of $504.7 million was 70.9% above the year-earlier quarter and above the $495.932 million estimate. Adjusted earnings per share of $0.38 beat the $0.35 estimate (Benzinga, 9 November 2026).
- Nine-month cash generation is positive. Operating cash flow totalled $201.5 million and free cash flow $48.7 million for the nine months to 30 September 2026, according to the company's release. Net debt of $160.5 million is below the $185.3 million at 31 December 2025.
- Refinancing extends the debt schedule. The company announced a $747.1 million financing agreement on 4 November 2026. The 9 November 2026 release says it replaces existing secured facilities and sets a multi-year maturity profile. Of $267.3 million total debt, $123.4 million was short-term at 30 September 2026.
- Dividend continues. The board declared a $0.10 per share quarterly dividend on 6 November 2026, with a 3 December 2026 record date and payment on 10 December 2026.
- Contract visibility. NESR announced Kuwait services and technology contracts totalling $300 million over five years on 5 August 2026. On 8 October 2026 it said it will run Saudi Arabia's first direct lithium extraction demonstration for Aramco in 2027.
- Analysts stay positive after the cuts. UBS (Buy, $40 target) and Barclays (Overweight, $37 target) both kept their ratings on 10 November 2026.
Bear case
- Revenue and margin both slipped. Revenue fell 3.1% from the second quarter and adjusted EBITDA fell 9.7%, taking the margin to about 19.0% from about 20.4%. Management had guided to sequential margin improvement.
- Cash flow turned negative. Third-quarter operating cash flow was negative $3.2 million, against $174.0 million in the second quarter. Capital expenditure of $42.7 million left free cash flow at negative $45.9 million.
- Receivables are building. Accounts receivable rose to $262.7 million at 30 September 2026 from $178.0 million at 31 December 2025. Unbilled revenue rose to $221.3 million from $121.2 million. Customers are national oil companies, so collection pace matters.
- Net debt has risen since June. It was $160.5 million at 30 September 2026, against $99.6 million at 30 June 2026.
- The release gives no outlook. The 9 November 2026 release contains no guidance for the fourth quarter, full-year 2026 or 2027. Chief Financial Officer Stefan Angeli described the operating environment as increasingly challenging, and Chief Executive Officer Sherif Foda cited an ongoing regional conflict.
- Insiders sold near $35. SEC Form 4 filings show Foda sold 100,000 shares at $35.00 on 31 August 2026 and gifted 1,350,000 shares on 2 September 2026. Director Antonio Campo Mejia sold 63,324 shares at $35.45 on 9 September 2026, and Angeli sold 13,570 shares at $35.12 on 18 August 2026.
- Target cuts have started. UBS and Barclays lowered targets on 10 November 2026, the day after the report.
Price setup
The shares closed at $19.20 on 5 November 2026, $19.55 on 9 November 2026 (the day of the report), $20.38 on 10 November 2026, $21.98 on 11 November 2026 and $21.23 on 12 November 2026. The shares have recovered part of the drop but remain below both moving averages.
The 52-week intraday high is $36.94 on 17 August 2026, and the close on 14 August 2026 was $36.31. The 52-week closing low is $13.03 on 12 November 2025. The 50-day average of $25.44 and the 200-day average of $25.62 are as of the 12 November 2026 close.
The 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 was filed with the SEC on 9 November 2026. The next results event is the fourth-quarter report in early 2027, so no results fall inside the next 30 days. The dividend record date of 3 December 2026 is the nearest dated company event.
Catalysts ahead
- 3 December 2026: Record date for the $0.10 per share quarterly dividend. Shows the board kept the payout through a quarter of negative free cash flow; payment follows on 10 December 2026.
- 10 December 2026: Payment date for the $0.10 per share quarterly dividend. Completes the declared payout.
- ~25 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results. Shows whether revenue rose above the third quarter's $504.7 million, whether operating cash flow turned positive, and whether the full-year revenue floor of $2 billion set in August held.
What would change the view
A daily close above $25.94, over both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which would show the shares leading again. A fourth-quarter 2026 revenue figure above the $504.7 million reported for the third quarter, with positive operating cash flow, would point the same way.
What it trades with
NESR trades with Middle East oilfield-services peers and with crude oil prices. Its revenue depends on national oil company spending in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and neighbouring markets, so regional security news moves the shares independently of quarterly results. The sample of 2026 quarterly reports is too small to support a trend conclusion about revenue momentum.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $504.7 million, down 3.1% from $520.8 million in the second quarter and up 70.9% from a year earlier; adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) was $95.9 million, down 9.7% from the second quarter. NESR third-quarter 2026 results release (PR Newswire) · as of
- Third-quarter operating cash flow was negative $3.2 million; capital expenditure was $42.7 million; free cash flow was negative $45.9 million. NESR third-quarter 2026 results release (PR Newswire) · as of
- Net debt was $160.5 million at 30 September 2026 (total debt $267.3 million, of which $123.4 million short-term; cash $106.8 million), against $99.6 million at 30 June 2026. NESR third-quarter and second-quarter 2026 results releases · as of
- Accounts receivable were $262.7 million and unbilled revenue $221.3 million at 30 September 2026, against $178.0 million and $121.2 million at 31 December 2025. NESR third-quarter 2026 results release (PR Newswire) · as of
- Adjusted earnings per share were $0.38 against a $0.35 estimate, and revenue was $504.725 million against a $495.932 million estimate; diluted earnings per share under US accounting rules were $0.33. Benzinga; GuruFocus · as of
- Management's second-quarter call expected continued strong revenue growth and sequential margin improvement in the third quarter, with full-year 2026 revenue of at least $2 billion. Quartr Q2 2026 earnings summary · as of
- UBS maintained Buy and lowered its price target to $40; Barclays maintained Overweight and lowered its target to $37. Company news headlines (UBS, Barclays) · as of
- Chief Executive Officer Sherif Foda sold 100,000 shares at $35.00 on 31 August 2026; director Antonio Campo Mejia sold 63,324 shares at $35.45 on 9 September 2026. SEC Form 4 filings · as of
Sources
- National Energy Services Reunited Corp. Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Declares Cash Dividend of $0.10 Per Share · prnewswire.com
- National Energy Services Reunited Corp Reports Q3 2026 Revenue of $504.7 Million, Diluted EPS Misses Estimates at $0.33 · gurufocus.com
- National Energy Services Reunited (NESR) Q2 2026 earnings summary · quartr.com
- Finviz ·
Related · shared themes
RIG
Transocean
Transocean's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500: its roughly $8 billion offshore-rig backlog has not lifted earnings, and 2027…
HP
Helmerich & Payne
Helmerich & Payne is modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months, resting on its 7 October 2026 guide to high-end…
FET
Forum Energy Technologies
Forum Energy Technologies beat third-quarter profit estimates, but flat fourth-quarter guidance and drilling orders below revenue leave the…
PDS
Precision Drilling
Precision Drilling's rig recovery is real but largely reflected in its shares, which face no company report before about 11 February 2027…