NEO · NeoGenomics

The thesis

NeoGenomics is modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over the next three months, because its cancer-testing turnaround is lifting profit faster than revenue. The weak spot is test volume. Pending Medicare decisions on its RaDaR ST residual-disease test, and the fourth-quarter report, will show whether volume starts to carry growth alongside price.

The rating is Medium because the 28 October 2026 results raised guidance and beat estimates, but clinical test volume grew only 1.8%. Third-quarter revenue was $209 million, up 11% year over year, and clinical revenue was $195 million, up 13%, according to the earnings release. Average revenue per clinical test reached $530, up 11%. The company raised its 2026 revenue guide to $807–809 million and its adjusted EBITDA guide to about $60 million. Adjusted EBITDA means earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation, with company adjustments.

Since the results, company news consists of a 6 November 2026 Business Wire release scheduling fireside chats on 17 November 2026 and 1 December 2026. The shares closed at $16.83 on 11 November 2026. That is 16.5% below the 52-week intraday high of $20.15, set on 6 October 2026. The price has given back part of the October rally despite the raised guide, so the market is not paying up for the 2026 guidance. It is waiting for evidence on 2027 volume.

Bullish and bearish views on NeoGenomics, Inc.

The bull case on NeoGenomics, Inc. (NEO), in brief: revenue per test rose again. The bear case: volume growth is still about 2%.

Bull case

• Revenue per test rose again. Average revenue per clinical test was $530 in the third quarter, up 11% year over year and up from $515 in the second quarter, according to the 28 October 2026 release.
• Sequencing keeps growing fast. Next-generation sequencing (NGS) revenue grew 29% and NGS test volume grew 17% in the third quarter, according to the 28 October 2026 release. The company expects full-year NGS revenue above $250 million.
• Profit is growing faster than revenue. Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA was $18.7 million, against $12.2 million a year earlier, and the net loss narrowed to $7.5 million from $27.1 million. On 28 October 2026 the company narrowed its 2026 net loss guide to $30–32 million, from $34–42 million.
• Results beat estimates. Benzinga reported on 28 October 2026 that adjusted earnings per share were $0.07 against a $0.05 estimate. Revenue of $209.25 million beat the $207.33 million estimate.
• Broker targets sit above the shares. TradingView News, measured after the 28 October 2026 report, shows targets from 10 analysts between $19 and $35, with nine Buy, three Hold and no Sell ratings among 12 covering analysts. TD Cowen raised its target to $23 from $19 on 29 October 2026, and BTIG kept a Buy rating and a $28 target, according to Benzinga.
• Medicare coverage is widening. On 26 August 2026, RaDaR ST won Medicare coverage for tracking response to immunotherapy, its third covered use. RaDaR ST tests for molecular residual disease (MRD), the cancer cells left after treatment. The company says two more submissions are pending at MolDX, the Medicare programme that reviews molecular tests.
• No open-market insider selling. SEC Form 4 filings from August to October 2026 show only option exercises and tax withholding by Warren Stone, the incoming chief executive, and by general counsel Alicia Olivo.

Bear case

• Volume growth is still about 2%. Clinical test volume was 367,279 in the third quarter, up 1.8% year over year, after 1.9% in the second quarter, according to company releases. On the 28 July 2026 call, management said its late-2025 exit from a high-volume, low-value contract would hold back volume comparisons.
• The revenue raise was small. On 28 October 2026 the 2026 revenue guide moved to $807–809 million from $802–806 million. Benzinga put the consensus estimate at $805.8 million, so the new range sits only modestly above it.
• Pharma services is shrinking. The company guides its pharma and other non-clinical line down by a high single-digit percentage for 2026, which offsets part of the clinical gain.
• Leadership changes hands on 4 January 2027. The 5 October 2026 succession plan makes Warren Stone chief executive and Tony Zook executive chair. A new chief executive could reset 2027 expectations at the fourth-quarter report.
• Debt is large next to cash. The 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 shows $385.3 million of convertible notes and $139.3 million of cash and equivalents. Conversion of the 2032 notes would mean new shares.

Price setup

The shares closed at $16.83 on 11 November 2026, according to adjusted daily closes, down from $17.60 on 9 November 2026. They are up 2.7% over three months, from a $16.39 close on 13 August 2026.

The last close sits below the 50-day moving average of $17.59 and well above the 200-day moving average of $12.95, both as of 11 November 2026. The 52-week intraday high is $20.15, set on 6 October 2026, around the pre-announcement and succession news. The 52-week closing low is $7.19, on 27 March 2026, so the shares have more than doubled off the March low.

Between 4 November 2026 and 11 November 2026 the shares closed in a range from $16.49 to $17.60. A return above the 50-day average would show buyers again paying for the raised guide. The $20.98 cap on the capped call attached to the 2032 notes sits above the 52-week high.

Catalysts ahead

• 17 November 2026: Fireside chat at the Stephens Annual Investment Conference, Nashville. First public management commentary since the Q3 call; any update on RaDaR ST submissions or 2027 framing would come here.
• 1 December 2026: Fireside chat at the Piper Sandler 38th Annual Healthcare Conference, New York. Last scheduled appearance before the 4 January 2027 chief executive handover; tests whether the roughly $60 million 2026 adjusted EBITDA guide is reaffirmed.
• ~31 December 2026 (est.): MolDX decisions on two pending RaDaR ST submissions. Each approval adds reimbursed MRD volume, the most direct way to lift clinical volume growth above 1.8%; a denial pushes the MRD ramp into 2027.
• 4 January 2027: Warren Stone takes over as chief executive. A handover with no further senior exits would close the leadership question opened by the 5 October 2026 succession announcement.
• ~24 February 2027 (est.): Q4 and full-year 2026 report with 2027 guidance. Shows whether revenue per test holds at $530 or above and whether 2027 guidance assumes faster clinical volume growth.

What would change the view

A daily close below $14.16, the conversion price of the company's 2032 convertible notes, which would erase most of the gain since the raised guide; or a fourth-quarter report showing average revenue per clinical test below $530, or a cut to the roughly $60 million 2026 adjusted EBITDA guide.

The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:

• Price-led growth stalls while clinical volume grows about 2%. Confirmed by: Q4 2026 average revenue per clinical test below $530, with clinical volume growth at or below 1.8%.
• Leadership turnover disrupts execution as the chief executive and chair roles change on 4 January 2027. Confirmed by: more senior departures before 4 January 2027, or a 2027 outlook below the 2026 growth rate.
• The thin adjusted EBITDA margin cannot absorb a reimbursement, coding or compliance surprise. Confirmed by: a cut to the roughly $60 million 2026 adjusted EBITDA guide, or a new compliance disclosure.
• Pending RaDaR ST submissions are delayed or declined, slowing MRD reimbursement. Confirmed by: a non-coverage decision, or both submissions still pending at the Q4 report.
• Pharma services shrinks faster than guided and offsets clinical strength. Confirmed by: a full-year non-clinical decline steeper than the high single-digit percentage the company guided for 2026.

What it trades with

NeoGenomics trades with small- and mid-cap diagnostics and lab-services names. Those names are sensitive to Medicare reimbursement decisions, MolDX coverage rules and interest rates, because many of them carry convertible debt. Its MRD test competes directly with larger residual-disease test makers, so coverage news at competitors can move the shares. The NEO symbol in Toronto belongs to Neo Performance Materials, an unrelated rare-earth magnet maker; its 10 November 2026 third-quarter results and dividend news do not concern NeoGenomics.