HP · Helmerich & Payne
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a weekly close below $32
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
18.9% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a weekly close below $32.00, on record since 10 November 2026; only a weekly close settles it. The shares are down 14.4% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A weekly close below $32, a round level well under the November closes that would extend the fall from the September high. Fiscal fourth-quarter North America direct margin below the $245 million low end of company guidance would separately break the operating case.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Last catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Energy
Quarter to 30 June 2026, filed 6 August 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 1,035
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −0.6
- Gross margin (%)
- 33.8
- Operating margin (%)
- 18.2
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 315
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −1,631
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 1.4
- Enterprise value to operating income (×)
- 60.4
All filed numbers
What Helmerich & Payne reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 1,035 | −0.6 | 33.8 | 18.2 |
| first filed | 932 | −8.2 | 29.1 | −4.0 |
| first filed | 1,017 | +50.2 | 32.9 | −5.9 |
| first filed | 1,012 | +45.8 | 31.3 | −0.1 |
| first filed | 1,041 | +49.2 | 32.3 | −12.3 |
| first filed | 1,016 | +47.7 | 30.9 | 4.1 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 151 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −137 | 75.7 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 June 2025 | +0.6 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 580 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 264 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 315 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 231 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 1,862 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −1,631 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +64.9% on a year | 87.6 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) +13.0% on a year | 6,100 |
| Receivables ($M) | 870 |
| Inventory ($M) | 326 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) including non-controlling interests | 2,670 |
| Market value ($M) | 3,804 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 5,434 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 1.4 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 60.4 |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.4 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 8.3 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 7.0% of shares outstanding sold short, 7.3 days of average trading to cover, +1.3% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $4.6M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $11.3M |
The thesis
Helmerich & Payne is modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over the next three months. The case rests on the company's 7 October 2026 guide to high-end fiscal fourth-quarter margins, and the results call on 19 November 2026 settles it through adjusted earnings per share and the first fiscal 2027 rig and margin outlook.
The shares closed at $37.13 on 12 November 2026, up from $34.68 on 5 November 2026, which leaves them 22.9% below the 52-week intraday high of $48.17 set on 2 September 2026. Adjusted daily closes show a 3-month change of −15.5%. The market has priced a partial recovery: the shares sit under the 200-day moving average of $37.26 and the 50-day average of $39.54, while the consensus target of $44.36 (MarketBeat, 4 November 2026) is well above the price.
Fiscal fourth quarter 2026 ended on 30 September 2026, so the pre-announcement already carries most of the margin information. The open questions are whether the quarter returns to an adjusted profit and what management guides for fiscal 2027. A report that confirms the margins and delivers a profit gives the shares a dated reason to close the gap to analyst targets. A weak outlook or a miss on North America margin would show the call is wrong.
Bullish and bearish views on Helmerich & Payne, Inc.
The bull case on Helmerich & Payne, Inc. (HP), in brief: margins are tracking the top of guidance. The bear case: the shares are still below both averages.
Bull case
- Margins are tracking the top of guidance. The company's 8-K of 7 October 2026 expects direct margins at or near the high end of guidance in North America, International and Offshore, with International at about $45 million. The August guide for North America was $245 million to $255 million on 145 to 151 rigs.
- Management expects stronger fiscal 2027 margins. The same 7 October 2026 update said overall direct margins should be stronger in fiscal 2027 than in fiscal 2026. The November report is the first chance to put numbers on that statement.
- Analyst targets sit well above the price. MarketBeat on 4 November 2026 showed an average 12-month target of $44.36 across 13 firms. Barclays' target is $51 (Overweight, 12 October 2026), UBS's is $50 (Buy, 12 October 2026) and Susquehanna's is $50 (Positive, 5 October 2026).
- Customers are adopting its rig automation. The company announced on 7 October 2026 that ExxonMobil will deploy seven more FlexRobotics systems, bringing the total to nine.
- Debt reduction is a stated goal. The 7 October 2026 8-K reaffirmed a target of about 1.0 times net debt to adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) by calendar year-end 2027, alongside the $0.25 quarterly dividend.
Bear case
- The shares are still below both averages. The 12 November 2026 close of $37.13 is under the 200-day average of $37.26 and the 50-day average of $39.54, both from adjusted daily closes.
- Recurring earnings were negative last quarter. The 5 August 2026 release showed earnings under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) of $0.74 per share, lifted by the Utica Square sale, against an adjusted loss of $0.11. MarketBeat had put consensus at a $0.09 profit.
- Consensus expects a clear profit. MarketBeat's earnings page lists fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 consensus of $0.26 per share on revenue of $1.06 billion on 6 November 2026. The prior quarter missed its bar, and a second miss would weaken the recovery case directly.
- Insiders sold near $44 to $45. SEC Form 4 filings show director Hans Helmerich sold 94,470 shares at $43.90 on 20 August 2026, chief legal officer Cara Hair sold 11,149 shares at $44.27 on 17 August 2026, and executive vice president Michael Lennox sold 10,000 shares at $45.00 on 1 September 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan.
- The drop from the September high is unexplained. No company filing or announcement dated after 7 October 2026 accounts for the fall from $48.17 to the November lows, so the market may be pricing something the company has yet to say.
Price setup
The last close of $37.13 (12 November 2026) sits within a cent or so of the 200-day moving average of $37.26. The 50-day average of $39.54 is the next reference overhead. The 52-week intraday high is $48.17, set on 2 September 2026, and the 52-week closing low is $26.10, set on 20 November 2025.
The shares closed at $44.20 on 14 August 2026, the reference close for the three-month change. Closes of $34.68 on 5 November 2026 and $35.22 on 6 November 2026 mark the November low. Since then the shares closed at $35.41 on 9 November 2026, $35.70 on 10 November 2026, $36.62 on 11 November 2026 and $37.13 on 12 November 2026, a four-session climb into the report. A close above the 200-day average would put the shares back above the level they lost in the fall. The published kill line has not been crossed.
Catalysts ahead
- 18 November 2026: Ex-dividend date for the $0.25 quarterly dividend, payable 2 December 2026. Confirms the dividend is maintained alongside the stated debt-reduction target.
- 19 November 2026: Fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 and year-end results call, 10 a.m. Eastern. Tests the high-end margins, the return to adjusted profit against the $0.26 per share consensus, and the first fiscal 2027 rig and margin outlook.
Elapsed catalysts
- 13 November 2026: Baker Hughes weekly US rig count, repeating each Friday. Shows whether producers are adding or cutting US drilling, the source of the company's North America rig demand. (passed)
What would change the view
A weekly close below $32, a round level well under the November closes that would extend the fall from the September high. Fiscal fourth-quarter North America direct margin below the $245 million low end of company guidance would separately break the operating case.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- The fall from the September high reflects a company problem that has not yet been disclosed. Confirmed by: a new company 8-K before 19 November 2026, or a fiscal fourth-quarter result or fiscal 2027 outlook below the 7 October 2026 statements.
- North America margin falls short of the guided range despite higher drilling activity. Confirmed by: fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 North America direct margin below the $245 million low end of guidance in the November report.
- The recovery continues without a return to adjusted profitability. Confirmed by: another adjusted loss per share in the fiscal fourth-quarter report after the $0.11 loss reported on 5 August 2026.
- Weaker crude leads producers to cut 2027 drilling plans. Confirmed by: a falling Baker Hughes US rig count through November 2026, or fiscal 2027 guidance for fewer rigs.
What it trades with
The shares trade with US land-drilling demand, which follows producers' response to crude prices and the Baker Hughes US rig count. Zacks groups the company with land drillers Patterson-UTI Energy and Nabors Industries, so sector-wide moves in those names and in oil tend to show up in the shares. The KCA Deutag acquisition, closed on 16 January 2025, adds Middle East, Argentina and offshore exposure that moves less with US rig counts. The ticker HP is often confused with HP Inc. (HPQ), which has no economic link to the company.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Company expects fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 direct margins at or near the high end of guidance in North America, International and Offshore, with International about $45 million, and stronger overall direct margins in fiscal 2027 than in fiscal 2026. Company 8-K guidance update · as of
- Fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 guidance from the August release was North America direct margin of $245 million to $255 million on 145 to 151 rigs. Company fiscal third-quarter 2026 results release (8-K) · as of
- Fiscal third-quarter 2026 GAAP earnings were $0.74 per share against an adjusted loss of $0.11 per share; the Utica Square sale lifted reported profit. Company fiscal third-quarter 2026 results release (8-K) · as of
- Consensus rating is Hold across 13 firms (7 buy, 5 hold, 1 sell) with an average 12-month price target of $44.36. MarketBeat analyst summary · as of
- Fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 consensus is earnings of $0.26 per share on revenue of $1.06 billion. MarketBeat earnings page · as of
- Company scheduled its fiscal fourth-quarter and year-end results call for 19 November 2026 at 10 a.m. Eastern. Company conference call announcement · as of
- Director Hans Helmerich sold 94,470 shares at $43.90 on 20 August 2026; EVP Michael Lennox sold 10,000 shares at $45.00 on 1 September 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. SEC Form 4 filings · as of
- Board declared a $0.25 quarterly dividend with an ex-dividend date of 18 November 2026, payable 2 December 2026. MarketBeat analyst summary · as of
Sources
- Helmerich & Payne, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- Helmerich & Payne, Inc. (NYSE:HP) Stock Has Average Price Target of $44.36 According to Brokerages · marketbeat.com ·
- Helmerich & Payne Sets Nov. 19 Q4 2026 Earnings Call · stocktitan.net
- Helmerich & Payne (HP) Q4 2026 Earnings Date, Time & Estimates · marketbeat.com
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