KSS · Kohls
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $29.09
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
17.5% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $29.09, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 25.3% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $29.09, clear of the November high and Gordon Haskett's $27 target, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; third-quarter results that raise the $1.80–$2.40 fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance would show the same.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Consumer Discretionary
Quarter to 1 August 2026, filed 3 September 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 3,515
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −0.9
- Gross margin (%)
- 46.1
- Operating margin (%)
- 7.4
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 1,034
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −504
- Price to earnings (×)
- 10.1
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 0.2
All filed numbers
What Kohls reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 3,515 | −0.9 | 46.1 | 7.4 |
| first filed | 3,167 | −2.0 | 43.1 | 1.5 |
| first filed | 5,173 | −4.2 | 35.7 | 4.1 |
| first filed | 3,575 | −3.6 | 42.4 | 2.0 |
| first filed | 3,546 | −5.0 | 43.3 | 7.9 |
| first filed | 3,233 | −4.4 | 43.3 | 1.9 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 198 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 270 | 151 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 2 August 2025 | +3.5 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 1,352 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 318 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 1,034 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 821 |
| Debt ($M) non-current long-term debt | 1,325 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −504 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | Not reported |
| Inventory ($M) | 2,913 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 4,168 |
| Market value ($M) | 2,721 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 3,225 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 0.2 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 5.4 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 10.1 |
| Price to book value (×) | 0.7 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 38.0 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 28.8% of shares outstanding sold short, 7.4 days of average trading to cover, +5.2% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $1.1M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $2.7M |
The thesis
Kohl's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. They trade above the analyst consensus target on one brokerage upgrade and a guidance raise helped by a one-time tariff refund. The third-quarter report settles it. MarketBeat and CNBC list it for 24 November 2026 and Earnings Whispers for 25 November 2026; Kohl's had not confirmed a date as of 12 November 2026. That report is the first test of the $1.80–$2.40 fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) guidance without a refund as large as the second quarter's.
The rating is Low because the price has moved further ahead of the evidence than the business has. The shares closed at $24.65 on 11 November 2026, 3.7% below the $25.60 intraday 52-week high set on 5 November 2026, and up 26.5% over three months in adjusted daily closes. MarketBeat's consensus target was $17.25 on 4 November 2026, with 2 Buy, 8 Hold and 5 Sell ratings. Gordon Haskett's $27 target, set on 22 October 2026, is the only target named in recent coverage that sits above the current price.
The price already reflects a clean third quarter. A $24.65 close against a $17.25 consensus target on 4 November 2026 leaves little room for the refund-free quarter to disappoint.
Bullish and bearish views on Kohls Corporation
The bull case on Kohls Corporation (KSS), in brief: guidance was raised, not just held. The bear case: the price sits above the consensus target.
Bull case
- Guidance was raised, not just held. On 26 August 2026 Kohl's raised fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $1.80–$2.40 from $1.00–$1.60, after Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.28. Analysts expected $2.10 for the year in MarketBeat's 4 November 2026 report, inside the company's range.
- Store traffic has been improving. Gordon Haskett analyst Chuck Grom upgraded the shares to Buy with a $27 target on 22 October 2026, citing traffic improving from high-single-digit declines earlier in 2026 to mid-single-digit declines since June (TIKR). The shares rose 12% on the upgrade, per Benzinga.
- A large short position can force buying. Shares sold short were 32,691,760 at the 15 October 2026 settlement, 7.41 days of average volume to cover, per Quiver Quant and Chart Exchange. A third quarter that beats would push short sellers to buy back more than a week of trading volume.
- Holiday events run through November. Kohl's scheduled Black Friday Week for 22 November to 28 November 2026 and Cyber Deals for 29 November to 30 November 2026, per StreetInsider. It added Klarna payments and delivery through Uber Eats, Instacart and DoorDash on 21 October 2026, per Benzinga.
Bear case
- The price sits above the consensus target. MarketBeat's 4 November 2026 tally is a Reduce consensus with a $17.25 average target, and Zacks Research cut the shares to Hold from Strong Buy that day. No other brokerage has matched the Gordon Haskett Buy since 22 October 2026 in company news.
- Q2 earnings leaned on a one-time refund. Kohl's received about $150 million of tariff refunds in Q2, about $100 million of it through gross margin, per its 26 August 2026 release. Q2 net sales fell 0.9% year over year to $3.52 billion, per MarketBeat, and full-year sales guidance runs from down 1.5% to flat.
- An executive sold into the rally and none bought. SEC Form 4 filings show Chief Legal Officer Jennifer Kent sold 22,940 shares at $22.00 between 13 October 2026 and 15 October 2026 and 22,940 more at $24.00 on 22 October 2026, both under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. The other October Form 4 filings record stock grants dated 15 October 2026, not open-market purchases.
- Short sellers added at higher prices. Short interest rose 5.17% between the 30 September 2026 and 15 October 2026 settlements while the shares advanced, per Quiver Quant. That equals 29.30% of shares outstanding on Chart Exchange's count and 40.56% of float on Quiver Quant's.
Price setup
The shares closed at $24.65 on 11 November 2026. The highest close of the run was $25.36 on 4 November 2026, and the intraday 52-week high of $25.60 came on 5 November 2026. The shares then fell to a $23.04 close on 6 November 2026 and recovered to $24.92 on 9 November 2026 with no company news that day.
As of the 11 November 2026 close, the 50-day moving average stood at $20.55 and the 200-day moving average at $17.06, both well below the price. The 52-week closing low was $11.72 on 18 May 2026, so the shares have more than doubled from it in six months. Gordon Haskett's $27 target is the nearest named level above the November high.
Catalysts ahead
- 22 November 2026: Black Friday Week event begins, running to 28 November 2026, followed by Cyber Deals on 29 November to 30 November 2026. Management commentary on these weeks at the Q3 report sets expectations for holiday-quarter sales and promotional gross margin.
- ~24 November 2026 (est.): Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings report; MarketBeat and CNBC list 24 November 2026, Earnings Whispers 25 November 2026, unconfirmed by Kohl's. It tests the $1.80–$2.40 EPS guidance without a Q2-sized tariff refund and shows whether traffic gains reach comparable sales.
What would change the view
A daily close above $29.09, clear of the November high and Gordon Haskett's $27 target, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; third-quarter results that raise the $1.80–$2.40 fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance would show the same.
What it trades with
Kohl's trades with heavily shorted consumer names as much as with retail results. Benzinga's 13 October 2026 most-shorted list named Kohl's alongside Dutch Bros, SoundHound AI and Ondas, and the outlet ran further most-shorted lists on 30 October 2026 and 11 November 2026. Moves in that group can carry the shares beyond company news. The business itself tracks department-store traffic, holiday promotion depth and US tariff policy, which set the size of the Q2 refund.
The evidence, claim by claim (7)
- Kohl's raised fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $1.80–$2.40 from $1.00–$1.60; Q2 adjusted EPS was $1.28 and about $150 million of tariff refunds were received. Kohl's Q2 fiscal 2026 results release and 8-K · as of
- Shares sold short were 32,691,760 at the 15 October 2026 settlement, up 5.17% from 30 September 2026, with 7.41 days to cover; 40.56% of float on Quiver Quant's count, 29.30% of shares outstanding on Chart Exchange's. Quiver Quant report 29 October 2026; Chart Exchange short-interest page · as of
- Chief Legal Officer Jennifer Kent sold 22,940 shares at $22.00 on 13 October to 15 October 2026 and 22,940 shares at $24.00 on 22 October 2026, both under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. SEC Form 4 filings dated 15 October 2026 and 23 October 2026 · as of
- Zacks Research cut Kohl's to Hold from Strong Buy; MarketBeat's tally is 2 Buy, 8 Hold, 5 Sell, a Reduce consensus with a $17.25 average target and $2.10 fiscal 2026 EPS expected. MarketBeat report via Daily Political, 4 November 2026 · as of
- Gordon Haskett upgraded Kohl's to Buy from Hold with a $27 target, citing traffic improving to mid-single-digit declines since June. TIKR and Benzinga reports, 22 October 2026 · as of
- Kohl's closed at $24.65, 3.7% below its $25.60 intraday 52-week high of 5 November 2026, with a 26.5% three-month gain in adjusted closes. Daily closing prices · as of
- Kohl's scheduled Black Friday Week for 22 November to 28 November 2026 and Cyber Deals for 29 November to 30 November 2026. Kohl's corporate news via StreetInsider · as of
Sources
- Kohl's (NYSE:KSS) Downgraded by Zacks Research to Hold · dailypolitical.com ·
- Quiver Quantitative ·
- KSS Short Interest: 29.3% (Oct 15) - Kohls · chartexchange.com
- Kohl’s Soars 12% as Gordon Haskett Upgrades to Buy With $27 Price Target · tikr.com
- Kohl's plans three November holiday savings events for 2026 · streetinsider.com
- KSS Kohl's Corporation · beta.earningswhispers.com
- Kohl's Reports Third Quarter Fiscal 2025 Financial Results · corporate.kohls.com
- Q2 2026 Kohl's Corporation Earnings Conference Call · investors.kohls.com
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