CRTO · Criteo
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $19.31
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
6.6% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $19.31, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 1.2% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $19.31, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and break the lag call. Q4 contribution ex-TAC above the $298 million top of the guide would also show it.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Communication Services
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 4 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 417
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −11.3
- Gross margin (%)
- 49.9
- Operating margin (%)
- 5.0
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 132
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 295
- Price to earnings (×)
- 12.3
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 0.3
All filed numbers
What Criteo reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 417 | −11.3 | 49.9 | 5.0 |
| first filed | 428 | −11.3 | 51.9 | 3.5 |
| first filed | 425 | −5.9 | 52.5 | 2.4 |
| first filed | 541 | −2.2 | 55.0 | 13.4 |
| first filed | 470 | +2.3 | 54.6 | 11.0 |
| first filed | 483 | +2.4 | 53.6 | 6.3 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 22.0 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 72.2 | 5.6 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −7.4 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 286 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 154 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 132 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 303 |
| Debt ($M) notes | 7.8 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 295 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 454 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 1,144 |
| Market value ($M) | 887 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 592 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 0.3 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 5.0 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 12.3 |
| Price to book value (×) | 0.8 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 14.9 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 2.8% of shares outstanding sold short, 4.1 days of average trading to cover, +19.0% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $121K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $89K | $1.7M |
The thesis
Criteo's sales are still shrinking, so the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months than to beat it. The 4 November 2026 report met guidance but showed no growth, and the fourth-quarter guide of $292 million–$298 million in contribution excluding traffic acquisition costs (contribution ex-TAC, revenue less the cost of buying ad space) settles the call.
Contribution ex-TAC was $240 million in Q3, inside the $237 million–$241 million guidance, and the full-year outlook of a 10–12% constant-currency decline was held, per Criteo's 8-K. It still fell 15% at constant currency. Retail media, the unit the turnaround leans on, fell 23% on client scope reductions.
The shares closed at $17.55 on 11 November 2026, up from $15.38 on 5 November 2026. Company news lists no Criteo announcement behind that rise. Criteo announced its inclusion in the MSCI Global Investable Market Indexes, effective 30 November 2026, on 12 November 2026. The $23.17 close of 6 July 2026, the day Bloomberg reported a Vista Equity-backed approach at a premium above 50%, is still well above the price. Criteo has not confirmed that approach.
Bullish and bearish views on Criteo S.A.
The bull case on Criteo S.A. (CRTO), in brief: guidance was met. The bear case: revenue is still shrinking.
Bull case
- Guidance was met. Contribution ex-TAC of $240 million landed inside the range issued on 5 August 2026, and the full-year outlook was not cut again, per Criteo's 4 November 2026 release.
- Profit beat the range. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) was $65 million against guidance of $54 million–$58 million, per the 8-K. The Q4 guide is $105 million–$111 million.
- Cash is positive and debt-free. Free cash flow was $21 million in Q3 after negative $38 million in Q2. Cash and marketable securities were $326 million at 30 September 2026, with no long-term debt per the call summary.
- Retail media's underlying trend is up. Criteo's call put underlying retail media contribution ex-TAC growth at 10% in Q3 after removing a $20 million scope impact. Media spend rose 22%.
- ChatGPT access is widening. The OpenAI integration grew from seven countries to 89, and about 3,600 clients have used ChatGPT Ads, per the 4 November 2026 call. Criteo expects the channel to build in 2027.
- Index inclusion adds a new group of holders. Criteo said on 12 November 2026 that it joins the MSCI Global Investable Market Indexes effective 30 November 2026. Funds that track an index typically buy additions at the effective date.
Bear case
- Revenue is still shrinking. Q3 revenue was $416 million, down 11%, and contribution ex-TAC fell 17% as reported, per the 8-K. Performance Media, the larger segment at $189.4 million, fell 15% at constant currency.
- Earnings fell sharply. Net income was $6 million, or $0.11 per diluted share, against $40 million, or $0.70, a year earlier, per the 8-K.
- Cash generation weakened year on year. Q3 free cash flow of $21 million compares with $67 million in Q3 2025. Share repurchases were $4 million in Q3 against $65 million for the first nine months of 2026.
- Analysts cut targets after the report. On 5 November 2026 Wells Fargo (equal-weight) lowered its target to $14, and Citigroup (buy) and Wedbush (outperform) each lowered theirs to $21. Morgan Stanley (equal-weight) lowered its target to $20 on 10 November 2026, from $25 set on 6 August 2026.
- ChatGPT revenue is a 2027 story. Criteo's 4 November 2026 call placed meaningful contribution in 2027, with most advertisers still testing. The Q4 guide carries none of it.
Price setup
The last close was $17.55 on 11 November 2026, from $15.38 on 5 November 2026. That sits above the 50-day moving average of $15.92 and below the 200-day moving average of $17.93. The three-month change is −3.6%.
The 52-week closing low was $14.17 on 27 October 2026. The 52-week intraday high was $25.29 on 6 July 2026, and the last close is 30.6% below it.
The 200-day average is the nearest overhead reference. The shares have not closed above it since the report, and the move toward it came after the stock fell to its low in October.
Catalysts ahead
- 30 November 2026: Criteo's inclusion in the MSCI Global Investable Market Indexes takes effect. Index-tracking funds typically buy additions on the effective date; the price reaction after it shows whether the rise since 5 November 2026 holds.
- ~1 January 2027 (est.): Target completion date for Criteo's redomicile from Luxembourg to a Delaware parent, subject to shareholder approval. A shareholder vote and approval are required before the move; a failed vote would remove the planned US domicile.
- ~15 February 2027 (est.): Criteo reports Q4 and full-year 2026 results. It tests the $292 million–$298 million contribution ex-TAC guide and whether the 10–12% full-year decline outlook holds.
What would change the view
A daily close above $19.31, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and break the lag call. Q4 contribution ex-TAC above the $298 million top of the guide would also show it.
What it trades with
Criteo's performance advertising business tracks open-web ad spending and retailer budgets, so its results depend on digital advertising demand more than on technology indices. Retail media competes with larger platforms for the same brand budgets.
The shares moved 21.4% in one session on 6 July 2026 on the takeover report, a move unrelated to operating results. The rise from $15.38 on 5 November 2026 to $17.55 on 11 November 2026 came with no company-reported cause in company news.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Q3 2026 contribution ex-TAC was $240 million, down 15% at constant currency; revenue was $416 million, down 11%; adjusted EBITDA was $65 million. Criteo Q3 2026 results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Q3 2026 free cash flow was $21 million versus $67 million a year earlier; cash and marketable securities were $326 million at 30 September 2026. Criteo Q3 2026 results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Full-year 2026 contribution ex-TAC outlook unchanged at a 10–12% constant-currency decline; Q4 guide is $292 million–$298 million contribution ex-TAC and $105 million–$111 million adjusted EBITDA. Criteo Q3 2026 results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Retail media Q3 contribution ex-TAC was $50.9 million, down 23%; Performance Media was $189.4 million, down 15% at constant currency. Criteo Q3 2026 results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- OpenAI integration expanded from seven to 89 countries; about 3,600 clients have used ChatGPT Ads; Criteo expects the channel to build in 2027. Criteo Q3 2026 earnings call, MarketBeat summary · as of
- Wells Fargo (equal-weight) lowered its target to $14; Citigroup (buy) and Wedbush (outperform) each lowered theirs to $21. Analyst target changes reported in company news · as of
- Morgan Stanley (equal-weight) lowered its Criteo price target to $20. Company news headline, Morgan Stanley note · as of
- Criteo announced inclusion in the MSCI Global Investable Market Indexes, effective 30 November 2026. Criteo press release · as of
Sources
- Criteo S.A. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov
- MarketBeat ·
- Vista Equity, Quinti Capital Bid for Criteo at Over 50% Premium, Shares Surge 21% · finance.biggo.com
- MarketBeat ·
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