CMRC · Commerce.com, Inc. Series 1
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $4.14
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
14.3% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $4.14, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 72.3% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $4.14, which would put the shares well above every close since the 5 November 2026 report and show the market paying for the cost plan despite flat revenue. Fourth-quarter revenue above the $86.4 million top of the guide would also show the shares leading.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Last catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 5 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 84.2
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −2.1
- Gross margin (%)
- 74.1
- Operating margin (%)
- −2.1
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 17.7
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 5.3
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 0.8
- Enterprise value to operating income (×)
- 3459.0
All filed numbers
What Commerce.com, Inc. Series 1 reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 84.2 | −2.1 | 74.1 | −2.1 |
| first filed | 84.5 | +0.1 | 75.2 | 3.2 |
| first filed | 86.8 | +5.4 | 76.7 | 6.6 |
| first filed | 89.5 | +2.9 | 78.3 | −7.4 |
| first filed | 86.0 | +2.8 | 78.4 | −0.5 |
| first filed | 84.4 | +3.2 | 79.0 | −8.0 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −3.1 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −6.7 | −3.2 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +2.7 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 33.8 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 16.1 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 17.7 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 162 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 156 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 5.3 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +16.3% on a year | 68.8 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 47.8 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 52.3 |
| Market value ($M) | 296 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 291 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 0.8 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 3459.0 |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 5.7 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 6.0 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 7.9% of shares outstanding sold short, 9.6 days of average trading to cover, +0.3% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $5K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $294K | $29K |
The thesis
Commerce.com is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. Profit is rising on cost cuts while sales are flat to down, and the chief financial officer (CFO) leaves on 13 November 2026. The fourth-quarter report, expected around February 2027, tests the $83.4–86.4 million revenue guide and the full-year profit range.
The third-quarter report on 5 November 2026 raised the floor of 2026 non-GAAP operating-income guidance to $35.3–37.3 million, from $31–37 million. Non-GAAP figures exclude items such as restructuring charges. Revenue was $84.2 million, down 2.1% from a year earlier, inside the company's $82.5–85.5 million range set on 6 August 2026. Non-GAAP operating income was $8.0 million, against a guided $3.3–5.3 million. The operating loss under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) was $1.8 million, after $4.0 million of restructuring charges (Q3 8-K exhibit 99.1).
The shares closed at $3.54 on 12 November 2026, down from $3.69 on 10 November 2026 and below the $3.62 close on the report date's following sessions. They are 61.6% higher over three months, measured from the $2.19 close on 14 August 2026, and 36.1% below the 52-week intraday high of $5.54 set on 12 November 2025. That three-month gain already prices in the cost plan announced on 10 September 2026. The next step up needs revenue to stop shrinking, which the company's own fourth-quarter guide does not call for.
Bullish and bearish views on Commerce.com, Inc. Series 1
The bull case on Commerce.com, Inc. Series 1 (CMRC), in brief: profit is running ahead of guidance. The bear case: revenue fell from a year earlier.
Bull case
- Profit is running ahead of guidance. Third-quarter non-GAAP operating income was $8.0 million against the company's $3.3–5.3 million guide (Q3 8-K, 5 November 2026). Fourth-quarter guidance is $6.8–8.8 million.
- The full-year profit floor was lifted. 2026 non-GAAP operating-income guidance is $35.3–37.3 million, from $31–37 million on 10 September 2026. Revenue guidance was narrowed to $339.0–342.0 million.
- Cash generation recovered. Free cash flow was $5.7 million in the third quarter. Cash, equivalents, restricted cash and marketable securities were $162.8 million on 30 September 2026 (Q3 8-K).
- Subscription revenue stopped shrinking. Subscription solutions revenue was $64.7 million, up 0.1% from a year earlier, and merchant sales volume rose 14% to $9.0 billion, per finsee.ai's summary of the company release (5 November 2026).
- A customer win was announced. Orangetheory Fitness moved its franchisee ordering portal to BigCommerce B2B Edition, according to company news dated 10 November 2026.
- A cost plan and buyback are authorized. The company targets $60–80 million of annualized non-GAAP operating-cost savings and a non-GAAP operating margin of at least 20% from 2027. The board authorized up to $50 million of repurchases through 10 September 2028 (company 8-K, 10 September 2026).
Bear case
- Revenue fell from a year earlier. Third-quarter revenue was down 2.1% (Q3 8-K, 5 November 2026). Fourth-quarter guidance of $83.4–86.4 million does not call for a clear return to growth.
- The finance chief is leaving. Daniel Lentz, CFO and chief operating officer, departs on 13 November 2026. Tyler Duncan becomes interim CFO while the board searches for permanent hires (Q3 8-K).
- No repurchases were reported. The third-quarter release reports no share repurchase activity, so the $50 million authorization has not yet appeared as buying.
- Restructuring costs are rising. Charges were $4.0 million in the third quarter, against $0.1 million a year earlier. The company expects $8.5–26.3 million through fiscal 2026 year-end (company outlook, 10 September 2026).
- Insiders have sold small amounts. Lentz sold 797 shares at $3.62 on 23 October 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan, and 797 shares at $2.22 on 24 August 2026 (SEC Form 4 filings). Other officers' Form 4 filings on 23 October 2026 show shares withheld for tax.
- Analysts are cautious. Tickeron put the consensus at Hold, with an average 12-month target near $4.25, after the 5 November 2026 report.
Price setup
The shares closed at $3.54 on 12 November 2026. That is above the 50-day average of $3.35 and the 200-day average of $2.94, both as of that close. The closes from 5 November to 12 November 2026 ranged from $3.54 to $3.69, so the shares have drifted since the report rather than extended the gain.
The 52-week closing low was $2.06 on 17 August 2026. The 52-week intraday high of $5.54 was set on 12 November 2025, so it falls out of the 52-week window now and the quoted high will reset lower. The 50-day average is the nearest level below the shares; a close under it would put the shares back inside the range they traded in before the report.
Catalysts ahead
- ~February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 report. Tests the $83.4–86.4 million revenue range and the $35.3–37.3 million full-year profit range, and may show any share repurchases.
Elapsed catalysts
- 13 November 2026: CFO and chief operating officer Daniel Lentz's departure takes effect; Tyler Duncan becomes interim CFO. Finance leadership changes while the company delivers a cost plan and a 2027 margin target of at least 20%. (passed)
What would change the view
A daily close above $4.14, which would put the shares well above every close since the 5 November 2026 report and show the market paying for the cost plan despite flat revenue. Fourth-quarter revenue above the $86.4 million top of the guide would also show the shares leading.
What it trades with
Commerce.com trades with small-cap software and e-commerce platform names and with merchant-spending trends. It competes with Shopify and Wix for online merchants. The company was formerly BigCommerce, and its SEC filings use the "bigc" file prefix.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $84.2 million, down 2.1% from a year earlier; non-GAAP operating income was $8.0 million and GAAP operating loss was $1.8 million. Q3 2026 results, 8-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- 2026 revenue guidance narrowed to $339.0–342.0 million; non-GAAP operating-income guidance is $35.3–37.3 million, from $31–37 million. Q3 2026 results, 8-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Fourth-quarter 2026 guidance: revenue $83.4–86.4 million and non-GAAP operating income $6.8–8.8 million. Q3 2026 results, 8-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Third-quarter free cash flow was $5.7 million; cash, equivalents, restricted cash and marketable securities were $162.8 million. Q3 2026 results, 8-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- CFO and chief operating officer Daniel Lentz leaves effective 13 November 2026; Tyler Duncan becomes interim CFO. Q3 2026 results, 8-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Third-quarter restructuring charges were $4.0 million versus $0.1 million a year earlier; no share repurchase activity was reported for the quarter. Q3 2026 results, 8-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Strategic plan targets $60–80 million of annualized non-GAAP operating-cost savings and a non-GAAP operating margin of at least 20% from 2027; board authorized up to $50 million of repurchases through 10 September 2028. Company 8-K, 10 September 2026 · as of
- Daniel Lentz sold 797 shares at $3.62 on 23 October 2026 in an open-market sale under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. SEC Form 4 filed 27 October 2026 · as of
Sources