DNA · Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $12.37
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
22.3% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $12.37, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 38.9% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $12.37, the post-report high close of 9 November 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again. A result that would also show it: fourth-quarter revenue above the third quarter's $27.7 million.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 9 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 27.7
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −5.7
- Gross margin (%)
- 93.5
- Operating margin (%)
- −157.5
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −174
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −32.5
All filed numbers
What Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 27.7 | −5.7 | 93.5 | −157.5 |
| first filed | 20.2 | −48.5 | 91.5 | −290.5 |
| first filed | 19.5 | −49.1 | 84.1 | −366.5 |
| first filed restated | 29.4 | −67.0 | 84.3 | −280.1 |
| first filed restated | 39.1 | −30.4 | 86.3 | −148.6 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −41.3 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −251 | −41.0 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) quarter to 30 September 2025, filed 6 November 2025; against the quarter to 30 September 2024 | +6.5 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −167 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 6.6 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −174 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 84.5 |
| Debt ($M) | Not available |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | Not available |
| Deferred revenue ($M) −21.1% on a year | 78.4 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) +54.5% on a year | 126 |
| Receivables ($M) | 11.5 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 393 |
| Market value ($M) at the 13 November 2026 close, filed figures to 6 November 2025 | 535 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not available |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.4 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −32.5 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 14.9% of shares outstanding sold short, 1.9 days of average trading to cover, +13.4% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $962K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $3.6M |
The thesis
Ginkgo Bioworks' third-quarter 2026 revenue recovered to $27.7 million from $20.2 million in the second quarter, but it is still 6% below the $29.4 million of a year earlier, and the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it. Fourth-quarter revenue against the $27.7 million figure decides it.
The company reported on 5 November 2026 (8-K). Losses narrowed, cash burn ran inside guidance, and Ginkgo announced its first autonomous-lab sale to a top-tier pharmaceutical company, Novo Nordisk, for Novo's new Waltham, Massachusetts research site. The release gives no value or revenue timing for that sale and no 2026 revenue guidance.
The shares closed at $9.96 on 5 November 2026, before the report, and at $11.29 on 6 November 2026, after it. They rose again through 9 November 2026, then closed at $12.01 on 10 November 2026 and $10.25 on 11 November 2026. Company news and SEC filings show no event on 11 November 2026 that explains that drop.
The price already reflects a recovery the filings have not yet delivered. The close of $10.25 on 11 November 2026 is above MarketBeat's average analyst target of $7 (6 November 2026), and revenue is below its year-earlier level.
Bullish and bearish views on Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc.
The bull case on Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. (DNA), in brief: revenue rebounded from the second quarter. The bear case: revenue is still below last year.
Bull case
- Revenue rebounded from the second quarter. Third-quarter revenue was $27.7 million against $20.2 million in the second quarter. A 5 November 2026 earnings summary put the analyst estimate at $21.567 million.
- Losses are narrowing. Net loss from continuing operations was $41.0 million, against $57.3 million in the second quarter and $73.4 million a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) was negative $22 million, against negative $36.3 million in the second quarter (8-K, 5 November 2026).
- A top-tier pharma company bought an autonomous lab. The 5 November 2026 release names Novo Nordisk as the first such buyer, for its Waltham site. Eli Lilly's TuneLab agreement for Datapoints testing was announced on 16 September 2026 (Benzinga).
- Cash burn is inside guidance. Third-quarter cash burn was $27 million. The company reaffirmed full-year 2026 burn of $125 million to $150 million (8-K, 5 November 2026).
Bear case
- Revenue is still below last year. Third-quarter revenue of $27.7 million compares with $29.4 million a year earlier. The company gave no revenue guidance and reports one segment, so Datapoints and autonomous-lab sales are not shown separately (8-K, 5 November 2026).
- The company keeps selling shares. Under its at-the-market program it issued 893,333 Class A shares in the third quarter for $6.5 million net. Since the program began it has issued 4.6 million shares for $41.1 million net (10-Q, filed 9 November 2026).
- Cash is falling. Cash, equivalents and marketable securities were $285.4 million on 30 September 2026, against $302 million on 30 June 2026. A further $84.2 million of restricted cash and securities sits in non-current assets (8-K, 5 November 2026).
- Insiders sold into the October rally. Form 4 filings dated 21 October 2026 show Jason Kelly, Reshma Shetty, Barry Canton and Steven Coen each exercised options on 16 October 2026 and sold shares at $10.14 on 19 October 2026. A Form 4 filed 7 October 2026 shows Coen sold 2,403 shares at $15.00 on 5 October 2026.
- Analysts sit below the price. MarketBeat reported on 6 November 2026 a consensus rating of Reduce and an average target of $7.
Price setup
The last completed daily close is $10.25 (11 November 2026). That is 41.6% above the $7.24 close of 13 August 2026 and 43.7% below the 52-week intraday high of $18.22 set on 6 October 2026. The 52-week closing low is $5.48 (30 March 2026).
The close sits just above the 50-day average of $10.17 and well above the 200-day average of $8.63. Both averages are as of 11 November 2026, on adjusted closes.
The shares moved by double digits in several sessions within seven trading days: $11.65 on 4 November 2026, $9.96 on 5 November 2026, $11.29 on 6 November 2026, $12.01 on 10 November 2026 and $10.25 on 11 November 2026. Gains from the report have been given back in the last two sessions.
Catalysts ahead
- ~March 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results and annual report. Shows whether quarterly revenue holds above the third quarter's $27.7 million, where the Novo Nordisk lab sale appears, and whether full-year cash burn landed inside the $125 million to $150 million guidance.
What would change the view
A daily close above $12.37, the post-report high close of 9 November 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again. A result that would also show it: fourth-quarter revenue above the third quarter's $27.7 million.
What it trades with
Ginkgo trades on its own news flow more than on a sector driver. The October spike followed a company announcement and a surge in call-option volume, and it coincided with double-digit gains in other small biotech and life-science tools names on 6 October 2026 (Benzinga). The 5 November 2026 report moved the shares by more than the broader market did.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $27.7 million, against $29.4 million a year earlier and about $20 million in the second quarter. Ginkgo Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Third-quarter net loss from continuing operations was $41.0 million, against $73.4 million a year earlier; adjusted EBITDA was negative $22 million, against negative $53 million. Ginkgo Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities were $285.4 million on 30 September 2026; third-quarter cash burn was $27 million; 2026 burn guidance of $125 million to $150 million was reaffirmed. Ginkgo Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Ginkgo announced its first autonomous lab sale to a top-tier pharmaceutical company, Novo Nordisk, for Novo's Waltham, Massachusetts research site; value and revenue timing were not disclosed. Ginkgo Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K exhibit 99.1) · as of
- In the third quarter Ginkgo issued 893,333 Class A shares under its at-the-market program for $6.5 million net; since inception 4.6 million shares for $41.1 million net. Ginkgo Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 · as of
- Third-quarter revenue of $27.711 million beat an analyst estimate of $21.567 million; loss per share was $0.64 against an estimated $0.86 loss. Earnings summary, 5 November 2026 · as of
- Jason Kelly, Reshma Shetty, Barry Canton and Steven Coen exercised options on 16 October 2026 and sold shares at $10.14 on 19 October 2026. SEC Form 4 filings filed 21 October 2026 · as of
- MarketBeat reported a consensus rating of Reduce and an average analyst target of $7. MarketBeat, 6 November 2026 · as of
Sources