ELE · Elemental Royalty
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $16.82
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
16.5% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $16.82, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 33.8% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $16.82, the 9 November 2026 close, which would erase the entire post-report fall and show the shares leading the S&P 500; or full-year 2026 GEO sales above the 22,000 top of guidance.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Materials
Filed figures are not available: no quarterly report in US GAAP with the SEC (a foreign filer reports on Form 20-F or 40-F).
All filed numbers
What Elemental Royalty reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): the share of shares outstanding is not available, 7.6 days of average trading to cover, −3.6% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $0 |
The thesis
Elemental Royalty Corporation's third-quarter sales fell short of analyst forecasts, and the purchase of the Orion assets has pushed debt to about 2.5 times earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA). The shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. Two things settle it: whether the company announces the sale of its Generation business in the fourth quarter, and whether fourth-quarter results show the Caserones copper royalty recovering.
Elemental reported third-quarter revenue of US$20.8 million on 10 November 2026, up 203% from a year earlier, from 4,861 gold-equivalent ounces (GEOs). Market news on 10 November 2026 put the consensus at US$24.5 million in sales and US$0.06 per share against US$0.09 expected. The shares closed at $16.09 on 10 November 2026 and $14.08 on 11 November 2026, the day of the results webinar.
At $14.08 on 11 November 2026 the shares sit below both the 50-day average of $18.13 and the 200-day average of $18.53. That price reflects the weak quarter and the new debt. It does not yet reflect the planned general and administrative (G&A) cost cut or a Caserones recovery, and neither is confirmed. The rating is Low because neither will be confirmed before the fourth-quarter report, and the cost of the Orion assets is already on the balance sheet.
Bullish and bearish views on Elemental Royalty Corporation
The bull case on Elemental Royalty Corporation (ELE), in brief: growth in ounces is real. The bear case: the quarter missed forecasts.
Bull case
- Growth in ounces is real. GEOs sold reached a record 15,092 in the first nine months of 2026, against 10,136 a year earlier, per the 10 November 2026 release. Adjusted EBITDA was US$16.6 million in the third quarter, up 168%.
- Guidance held after the quarter. Elemental narrowed its guidance for the existing portfolio to 18,000–20,500 GEOs from 17,000–21,000 on 10 November 2026. Total guidance stays at 19,500–22,000 GEOs including Orion, at an assumed US$4,000 per ounce of gold and US$6.00 per pound of copper. The company said it "remains on track."
- Orion adds cash flow in 2027. Four of the five Orion assets closed on 26 October 2026 for US$188 million in cash and 3,942,881 shares, per the company's 6-K. On the 11 November 2026 call, management said Orion should add about US$20 million a year of cash flow in 2027 at current prices.
- Overhead should fall. Management said on 11 November 2026 that it expects to announce the Generation business sale in the fourth quarter. It said the sale would cut G&A by more than 25%. The unit holds about 60% of staff but under 1% of net asset value, per the call.
Bear case
- The quarter missed forecasts. Revenue of US$20.8 million came in below the US$24.5 million consensus, per market news on 10 November 2026. The shares fell from $16.09 to $14.08 in the 11 November 2026 session.
- Caserones lost a month of output. Winter storms suspended operations for about 30 days in the third quarter, per the 10 November 2026 release, and Caserones royalty revenue fell to US$3.1 million. Lundin Mining cut its 2026 Caserones copper guidance to 105,000–115,000 tonnes. Snowmelt effects carry into the fourth quarter.
- Debt is now high for a royalty company. Debt was about US$210 million after a US$180 million draw in October, and net debt about US$185 million, per the chief financial officer on 11 November 2026. Management put leverage at about 2.5 times EBITDA and targets about 1 times by late 2027.
- Per-share gains are delayed. A question on the 11 November 2026 call noted that revenue per share could fall in the short term while growth is debt-funded. Shares outstanding rose to 76,471,207 after the 26 October 2026 issuance.
- Cost cuts have not arrived. Third-quarter G&A was about US$6 million, including severance and legal costs tied to the divestiture, and management expects the fourth quarter to be similar. The Carlin East agreement for the Generation business had a 31 October 2026 completion target, set on 21 September 2026, and no completion has been announced.
Price setup
The shares closed at $14.08 on 11 November 2026, 47.8% below the 52-week intraday high of $26.96 set on 29 January 2026. The three-month change is −31.2%, from a close of $20.51 on 13 August 2026. Both the 50-day average of $18.13 and the 200-day average of $18.53 sit well above the price, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.
Before the report, the shares had recovered from $15.49 on 4 November 2026 to $16.09 on 10 November 2026. The 11 November 2026 close gave back all of that recovery and set a new low for the three months. The next reference below the market is the 52-week closing low of $12.90 from 25 November 2025.
Elemental is a Canadian filer, and its insiders report on Canada's SEDI system. No SEC Form 4 record exists to screen for insider buying or selling.
Catalysts ahead
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): Announcement of the Generation business sale, guided by management for the fourth quarter of 2026. Confirms the more-than-25% G&A cut that the per-share case depends on; no announcement by year end would extend the cost overhang.
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): Rumble Resources' Western Queen feasibility study and possible mine decision, targeted for the fourth quarter of 2026. A positive decision adds a future producing royalty to the portfolio.
- ~31 March 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results, with 2027 guidance. Shows whether 2026 GEOs land within 19,500–22,000, whether Caserones recovered, and sets the first full year of Orion and lower G&A.
- ~31 March 2027 (est.): Snowy River stream closing, subject to New Zealand regulatory approvals. Completes the Orion purchase and adds the last of the five assets.
What would change the view
A daily close above $16.82, the 9 November 2026 close, which would erase the entire post-report fall and show the shares leading the S&P 500; or full-year 2026 GEO sales above the 22,000 top of guidance.
What it trades with
Elemental's revenue follows gold and copper prices: guidance assumes US$4,000 gold and US$6.00 copper, and Caserones ties a large share of revenue to Lundin Mining's copper output in Chile. The shares tend to move with gold royalty and streaming companies and with gold-miner funds. The Toronto line prices in Canadian dollars, which adds currency noise between the two listings. A shareholder holding about 27% (Tether, per the 11 November 2026 call) concentrates ownership and can reduce trading liquidity.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Q3 2026 revenue US$20.8M, up 203% from US$6.9M; 4,861 GEOs sold (2,362 a year earlier); record 15,092 GEOs year to date. Elemental Q3 2026 results release, 10 November 2026 · as of
- Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDA US$16.6M, operating cash flow US$13.2M, net income US$3.8M; cash US$23.0M at 30 September 2026. Elemental Q3 2026 results release, 10 November 2026 · as of
- Existing-portfolio 2026 guidance narrowed to 18,000–20,500 GEOs from 17,000–21,000; total 19,500–22,000 GEOs with Orion, at US$4,000 gold and US$6.00 copper. Elemental Q3 2026 results release, 10 November 2026 · as of
- Q3 EPS US$0.06 against a US$0.09 consensus; sales US$20.813M against a US$24.5M consensus. Market news earnings comparison, 10 November 2026 · as of
- Caserones Q3 royalty revenue US$3.1M after about 30 days of storm suspensions; Lundin Mining cut 2026 Caserones copper guidance to 105,000–115,000 t. Elemental Q3 2026 results release, 10 November 2026 · as of
- Debt about US$210M after a US$180M October draw; net debt about US$185M, roughly 2.5x net debt to EBITDA; target about 1x by late 2027. Elemental Q3 2026 earnings call, 11 November 2026 · as of
- Generation business sale expected to be announced in Q4 2026, cutting G&A by more than 25%; Q3 G&A about US$6M including severance and legal costs. Elemental Q3 2026 earnings call, 11 November 2026 · as of
- Four of five Orion assets closed for US$188M cash and 3,942,881 shares; 76,471,207 shares outstanding; credit facility raised to US$250M. Elemental 6-K, press release dated 26 October 2026 · as of
Sources
- Elemental Royalty Delivers Strong Quarterly Performance · elementalroyalty.com ·
- Elemental Royalty (ELE) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript · fool.com ·
- Elemental Royalty Corp - Form 6-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- Elemental Royalty completes Orion acquisition, increases credit facility to US$250 million · directorstalkinterviews.com