GDRX · GoodRx Holdings
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $4.05
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
12.1% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $4.05, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 4.3% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $4.05, over the 52-week intraday high of $3.89 set on 11 August 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A September-quarter 10-Q with no further restatement and the $790–805 million revenue outlook intact would also show it.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 30 June 2026, filed 5 August 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 200
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −1.3
- Gross margin (%)
- 89.5
- Operating margin (%)
- 11.8
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 197
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −191
- Price to earnings (×)
- 76.3
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 1.8
All filed numbers
What GoodRx Holdings reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 200 | −1.3 | 89.5 | 11.8 |
| first filed | 194 | −4.4 | 89.6 | 7.2 |
| first filed | 195 | −1.9 | 91.0 | 11.6 |
| first filed | 196 | +0.4 | 93.2 | 7.5 |
| first filed | 203 | +1.2 | 93.4 | 13.2 |
| first filed | 203 | +2.6 | 93.4 | 11.5 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 15.5 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 16.2 | 8.5 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 June 2025 | −2.5 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 202 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 4.5 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 197 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 296 |
| Debt ($M) non-current long-term debt plus current maturities | 487 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −191 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +44.3% on a year | 8.8 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 182 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 648 |
| Market value ($M) | 1,239 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 1,430 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 1.8 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 19.1 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 76.3 |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.9 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 15.9 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 1.1% of shares outstanding sold short, 4.2 days of average trading to cover, −11.6% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $9.7M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $9.7M |
The thesis
GoodRx is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The company said on 2 November 2026 that its first- and second-quarter 2026 financials can no longer be relied upon, and the delayed September-quarter report, due by the end of the five-calendar-day extension on 14 November 2026, decides whether Pharma Direct and subscriptions outgrow the shrinking prescription-discount business on audited numbers.
The restatement raises revenue. GoodRx's 8-K, signed 2 November 2026, shows Pharma Direct revenue was understated by $29.773 million across the first half of 2026. Restated second-quarter total revenue is $222.684 million, against $200.411 million first reported. The company also expects to report material weaknesses in internal control over financial reporting at 31 March 2026, 30 June 2026 and 30 September 2026.
GoodRx filed a Form NT 10-Q on 10 November 2026 saying it cannot file the September-quarter 10-Q on time. The shares closed at $3.51 on 12 November 2026, down from $3.65 on 11 November 2026. The three-month change is −5.9%. The price sits 9.8% below the 52-week intraday high of $3.89 set on 11 August 2026, so the market has not paid up for the higher restated revenue.
Bullish and bearish views on GoodRx Holdings, Inc.
The bull case on GoodRx Holdings, Inc. (GDRX), in brief: the restatement lifts reported results. The bear case: two quarters of reported results were wrong.
Bull case
- The restatement lifts reported results. Restated six-month revenue is $424.2 million, up from $394.4 million. Restated six-month net income is $24.6 million, up from $9.7 million (GoodRx 8-K, signed 2 November 2026).
- Pharma Direct is larger than first reported. Restated second-quarter Pharma Direct revenue is $83.9 million, against $61.6 million originally reported. The fastest-growing segment is bigger than the market had been told (GoodRx 8-K, 2 November 2026).
- Partnerships are widening. GoodRx announced a collaboration with Novo Nordisk on an employer pricing programme on 1 November 2026 and launched an Employer Direct GLP-1 weight-loss offering on 29 October 2026. On 10 November 2026 it said its prescription pricing data will be integrated into Google Cloud's Gemini for Healthcare, with GoodRx as a launch partner (company news).
- Subscriptions grew in the original second quarter. Subscription revenue rose 39% from a year earlier to $28.5 million in the quarter reported 5 August 2026. The 8-K restates Pharma Direct only (GoodRx Q2 2026 results).
- Directors are exercising options. Form 4 filings show option exercises by directors Hirsch on 26 October 2026, Bezdek on 2 November 2026 and Bruehlman on 8 November 2026. These are exercises, not open-market purchases (SEC Form 4).
Bear case
- Two quarters of reported results were wrong. The Audit and Risk Committee concluded on 27 October 2026 that revenue was not recognised in the periods ASC 606 requires for certain Pharma Direct transactions. GoodRx will amend both Forms 10-Q (8-K, 2 November 2026).
- Internal controls failed. GoodRx expects to report material weaknesses at the end of March, June and September 2026. The company says it found no impact on periods before 2026 (8-K, 2 November 2026).
- The September-quarter report is late. The Form NT 10-Q filed 10 November 2026 gives no third-quarter revenue or net income and no call date.
- The largest segment keeps shrinking. Prescription transactions revenue fell 26% from a year earlier to $106.4 million in the second quarter, as originally reported. Monthly active consumers fell 12% to 5 million (12 August 2026 earnings call transcript).
- Amazon competes on price. Amazon's RxPass costs Prime members $5 per month for about 50 generics. GoodRx's Companion plan costs $14.99 per month for more than 250 generics (Spokesman-Review, 1 October 2026).
- Debt exceeds cash, and the privacy case continues. Total debt was $492.5 million against $296.1 million of cash at the end of the second quarter (12 August 2026 earnings call transcript). A California federal court preliminarily approved a $32 million privacy settlement on 23 October 2026 (company news).
- A 10% owner sold in August. Francisco Partners IV and IV-A sold 1,567,044 shares from 24 August to 26 August 2026 at weighted average prices of about $3.44–3.51, outside a Rule 10b5-1 plan (SEC Form 4, 26 August 2026).
Price setup
The shares closed at $3.51 on 12 November 2026, above the 50-day average of $3.44 and the 200-day average of $2.87 (adjusted daily closes). Closes since 5 November 2026 have ranged from $3.49 to $3.65, so the restatement disclosure on 2 November 2026 and the late filing on 10 November 2026 moved the price very little.
The 52-week intraday high is $3.89 on 11 August 2026. The 52-week closing low is $1.87 on 27 February 2026. The 3-month reference close of $3.73 on 14 August 2026 is above the latest close, which is why the three-month change is negative.
The main near-term risk is event risk from an unscheduled, delayed report. A filing that shows further corrections would hit shares priced as if the restatement were only an upward revision.
Catalysts ahead
- Date not announced: Amended Forms 10-Q for the first and second quarters of 2026. Confirms the final restated figures and the scope of the internal-control weaknesses.
- 11 February 2027: Final approval hearing for the $32 million privacy class-action settlement (Doe v. GoodRx Holdings). Closes the largest known privacy-litigation cost if the court approves it.
Elapsed catalysts
- ~14 November 2026 (est.): September-quarter 2026 results and Form 10-Q, due by the end of the five-calendar-day extension cited in the 10 November 2026 NT 10-Q (14 November 2026 is a Saturday, so the filing may land on 16 November 2026). Shows third-quarter revenue on the corrected basis and whether the $790–805 million full-year revenue outlook stands. (passed)
What would change the view
A daily close above $4.05, over the 52-week intraday high of $3.89 set on 11 August 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A September-quarter 10-Q with no further restatement and the $790–805 million revenue outlook intact would also show it.
What it trades with
GoodRx trades on pharmacy-benefit and drug-pricing news more than on broad technology or growth sentiment. Amazon's pharmacy offerings and manufacturer pricing programmes such as the Novo Nordisk collaboration are the nearest external drivers. Small- and mid-cap restatement cases often trade on filing timing, so the date of the next filing matters as much as the figures in it.
The evidence, claim by claim (7)
- The Audit and Risk Committee concluded on 27 October 2026 that first- and second-quarter 2026 financials should not be relied upon. Pharma Direct revenue was understated by $29.773 million ($7.5 million in the first quarter, $22.273 million in the second). GoodRx Form 8-K signed 2 November 2026 (SEC) · as of
- Restated second-quarter 2026 total revenue is $222.684 million versus $200.411 million as reported. Restated net income is $19.592 million versus $8.536 million. GoodRx Form 8-K signed 2 November 2026 (SEC) · as of
- GoodRx said it cannot file its September-quarter 10-Q on time, plans to file within the five-calendar-day extension, and expects material weaknesses in internal control. GoodRx Form NT 10-Q dated 10 November 2026 (SEC) · as of
- As originally reported for the second quarter of 2026, subscription revenue was $28.5 million (up 39% from a year earlier) and prescription transactions revenue was $106.4 million (down 26%). GoodRx second-quarter 2026 results; 12 August 2026 earnings call transcript · as of
- At the end of the second quarter of 2026, total debt was $492.5 million and cash and equivalents were $296.1 million. 12 August 2026 earnings call transcript · as of
- Francisco Partners IV and IV-A sold 1,567,044 shares from 24 August to 26 August 2026 at weighted average prices of about $3.44–3.51, not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. SEC Form 4 filed 26 August 2026 · as of
- GoodRx said its prescription pricing and savings data will be integrated into Google Cloud's Gemini for Healthcare, with GoodRx as a launch partner. GoodRx company news 10 November 2026 · as of
Sources
- GoodRx Holdings, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- GoodRx Holdings, Inc. - Form NT 10-Q - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- SEC EDGAR
- Full Transcript: GoodRx Holdings Q2 2026 Earnings Call · benzinga.com