MTD · Mettler-Toledo International
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a daily close below $1,500
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
15.9% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close below $1,500.00, on record since 10 November 2026. The shares are up 22.7% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close below $1,500, which would put the shares under their 50-day moving average and below the $1,679.08 close of 5 November 2026 before the earnings reaction; or a company report that cuts 2027 guidance of about 5% local currency sales growth and $52.50–$53.50 adjusted EPS.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 6 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 1,094
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +6.3
- Gross margin (%)
- 59.8
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 871
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −1,971
- Price to earnings (×)
- 37.0
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 8.7
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- 2.5
All filed numbers
What Mettler-Toledo International reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 1,094 | +6.3 | 59.8 |
| first filed | 1,027 | +4.5 | 63.3 |
| first filed | 947 | +7.2 | 58.7 |
| first filed | 1,130 | +8.1 | 59.8 |
| first filed | 1,030 | +7.9 | 59.2 |
| first filed | 983 | +3.9 | 59.0 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 300 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 934 | 246 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −2.7 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 984 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 114 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 871 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 52.2 |
| Debt ($M) | 2,024 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −1,971 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +5.6% on a year | 247 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 733 |
| Inventory ($M) | 440 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 77.7 |
| Market value ($M) | 34,588 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 36,559 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 8.7 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not available |
| Price to earnings (×) | 37.0 |
| Price to book value (×) | 445.4 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 2.5 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 3.3% of shares outstanding sold short, 3.1 days of average trading to cover, −7.2% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $2.1M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $20.3M |
The thesis
Mettler-Toledo's third-quarter beat and a 2027 earnings guide above estimates support modest outperformance against the S&P 500 over the next three months. The fourth-quarter report, expected in early February 2027, settles whether about 5% local currency sales growth and $52.50–$53.50 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for 2027 hold. The rating is Medium because the business evidence is strong but the price has already run ahead of most analyst targets.
The company makes precision weighing and laboratory instruments for drug makers, chemical producers, food companies and industrial plants. Its 5 November 2026 release reported third-quarter sales of $1.094 billion, up 6% in local currency, and adjusted EPS of $12.57, up 13% from $11.15. Benzinga cited estimates of $1.071 billion and $12.09. The company raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $47.70–$47.90 from $47.15–$47.50.
The price already reflects much of this. The shares closed at $1,730.93 on 12 November 2026, above the $1,555.38 consensus target MarketBeat listed on 9 November 2026 and close to the $1,725 target JPMorgan set the same day. For the shares to keep leading, the 2027 guide has to survive the February report intact.
Bullish and bearish views on Mettler-Toledo International
The bull case on Mettler-Toledo International (MTD), in brief: 2027 guidance starts above estimates. The bear case: the price sits above the consensus target.
Bull case
- 2027 guidance starts above estimates. The $52.50–$53.50 adjusted EPS range published on 5 November 2026 implies 10% to 12% growth, per the company. Its low end sits above the $51.76 estimate Benzinga cited that day.
- Cash returns are large and specific. Chief financial officer Shawn Vadala guided 2027 free cash flow to about $950 million and share repurchases to about $950 million on the 6 November 2026 call. The company bought back $638.7 million of shares in the first nine months of 2026, per its release.
- Margins are still expanding. Vadala put 2027 operating margin expansion at about 70 basis points (0.7 percentage point) at the midpoint on the 6 November 2026 call. Third-quarter adjusted EPS grew 13% on 6% sales growth.
- Americas sales turned positive. Americas local currency sales rose 3% in the third quarter, per the 5 November 2026 release, after a 3% decline in the second quarter reported on 30 July 2026.
- Targets moved up across the board. Jefferies raised its target to $1,930 from $1,580 on 6 November 2026, per Investing.com. Barclays raised to $1,900 from $1,700 (Overweight) and Stifel to $1,900 from $1,600 (Buy) on 9 November 2026, per MarketBeat.
Bear case
- The price sits above the consensus target. MarketBeat put the consensus target at $1,555.38 on 9 November 2026, with 6 Buy, 8 Hold and 1 Sell ratings. Goldman Sachs' $1,640 target and JPMorgan's $1,725 target, both set on 9 November 2026 per fiscal.ai, sit below the 12 November 2026 close of $1,730.93.
- The valuation is full. MarketBeat listed a price-to-earnings ratio of 37.38 on 9 November 2026. Baird and JPMorgan both kept Neutral ratings while raising targets on 9 November 2026.
- Europe stays weak. Europe's local currency sales rose 2% in the third quarter, down from 7% in the second, per the company's releases. Management guided 2027 Europe to low single digits on the 6 November 2026 call, citing energy costs and trade disputes.
- China growth is guided to slow sharply. Vadala expects mid-teens China growth in the fourth quarter but mid-single digits for 2027, per the 6 November 2026 call. China grew 13% in the third quarter and drove the beat.
- The 2026 sales guide trails estimates. The company set 2026 sales guidance at $4.227 billion against a $4.238 billion estimate, per Benzinga on 5 November 2026. The EPS raise came with a sales figure slightly below what analysts expected.
Price setup
The shares closed at a record $1,762.28 on 9 November 2026, the day of the company's investor meeting, and set a 52-week intraday high of $1,806.58 on 6 November 2026, the session after the third-quarter release. They closed lower in each of the next three sessions, ending at $1,730.93 on 12 November 2026, 4.2% below that high. The close before the earnings reaction was $1,679.08 on 5 November 2026.
The three-month gain is 22.0%, measured from a $1,419.02 close on 14 August 2026. As of 12 November 2026 the 50-day moving average stood at $1,552.95 and the 200-day at $1,350.46, both in adjusted daily closes. The 52-week closing low was $1,025.53 on 13 May 2026, so the shares have climbed far from their spring trough.
The gap between the close and the 50-day average leaves room for a pullback with no change in the business. SEC Form 4 filings dated 12 November 2026 show only routine share grants of 54 to 77 shares to eight directors on 10 November 2026, with no open-market purchases. No company report is due before early February 2027.
Catalysts ahead
- ~5 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 report. It tests fourth-quarter guidance of $14.84–$15.04 adjusted EPS and mid-teens China growth, and shows whether the 2027 outlook of about 5% local currency growth and $52.50–$53.50 adjusted EPS stands.
What would change the view
A daily close below $1,500, which would put the shares under their 50-day moving average and below the $1,679.08 close of 5 November 2026 before the earnings reaction; or a company report that cuts 2027 guidance of about 5% local currency sales growth and $52.50–$53.50 adjusted EPS.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- The share price leaves little room for disappointment after closing above the consensus target. Confirmed by: target cuts or downgrades following the round of raises on 6 November 2026 and 9 November 2026.
- Europe's slowdown deepens, leaving growth dependent on Asia. Confirmed by: Europe's local currency sales flat or falling in the fourth-quarter report, after 2% growth in the third quarter and 7% in the second.
- China growth fades faster than the mid-single-digit 2027 guide. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter China growth well below the mid-teens management guided on 6 November 2026.
- The Americas recovery proves brief as US pharma and industrial customers hold back capital spending. Confirmed by: Americas local currency sales falling again in the fourth-quarter report, after 3% growth in the third quarter.
- Cash generation misses the 2027 free cash flow guide of about $950 million. Confirmed by: full-year 2026 adjusted free cash flow below the prior year, extending the nine-month decline to $651.9 million from $689.5 million.
What it trades with
The shares depend on capital spending by drug makers and industrial customers. Vadala called pharma the standout of the third quarter on the 6 November 2026 call. Asia and Rest of World sales grew 14% in local currency, against 3% in the Americas and 2% in Europe, which makes China demand and European industrial activity the main swing factors. Third-quarter sales grew 6% in both US dollars and local currency, so currency had no net effect in that quarter. MarketBeat listed the stock's beta, its sensitivity to moves in the broad market, at 1.16 on 9 November 2026.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 sales were $1.094 billion, up 6% in US dollars and local currency; adjusted EPS was $12.57, up 13% from $11.15. Q3 2026 earnings release (Form 8-K, 5 November 2026) · as of
- 2027 guidance calls for about 5% local currency sales growth and adjusted EPS of $52.50–$53.50; Benzinga cited a $51.76 estimate. Q3 2026 earnings release (Form 8-K); Benzinga, 5 November 2026 · as of
- 2026 adjusted EPS guidance was raised to $47.70–$47.90 from $47.15–$47.50; 2026 sales guidance is $4.227 billion against a $4.238 billion estimate. Benzinga, 5 November 2026 · as of
- Management guided 2027 free cash flow of about $950 million, share repurchases of about $950 million and operating margin expansion of about 70 basis points at the midpoint. Q3 2026 earnings call, 6 November 2026 · as of
- Third-quarter local currency sales rose 3% in the Americas, 2% in Europe and 14% in Asia/Rest of World; China grew 13%. Q3 2026 earnings release (Form 8-K); 6 November 2026 earnings call · as of
- Barclays raised its target to $1,900 from $1,700 (Overweight), Stifel to $1,900 from $1,600 (Buy), Baird to $1,815 (Neutral), JPMorgan to $1,725 from $1,550 (Neutral) and Goldman Sachs to $1,640 from $1,510. Benzinga, fiscal.ai and MarketBeat, 9 November 2026 · as of
- MarketBeat listed a consensus Hold rating (6 Buy, 8 Hold, 1 Sell), a $1,555.38 consensus target and a 37.38 price-to-earnings ratio. MarketBeat, 9 November 2026 · as of
- Eight directors received share grants of 54 to 77 shares each on 10 November 2026; no open-market purchases were reported. SEC Form 4 filings, 12 November 2026 · as of
Sources
- METTLER TOLEDO INTERNATIONAL INC/ - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- Mettler-Toledo (MTD) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript · fool.com ·
- Mettler-Toledo International (NYSE:MTD) Stock Price Expected to Rise, Barclays Analyst Says · marketbeat.com ·
- Mettler-Toledo International (NYSE:MTD) Stock Price Target Raised at Stifel Nicolaus · marketbeat.com ·
- Jefferies raises Mettler-Toledo stock price target on solid growth · za.investing.com ·
- Mettler-Toledo International Inc. to Host Investor Meeting · investor.mt.com ·
- Mettler-Toledo International Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results · businesswire.com ·
Related · shared themes
DHR
Danaher
Danaher's shares have a modest edge over the S&P 500 because mid-teens bioprocessing orders should reach revenue in 2027. Formal 2027…
ICLR
ICON
ICON plc's orders have recovered into fee-earning work, with a third-quarter direct-fee book-to-bill near 1.3, giving the shares a modest…
IQV
IQVIA Holdings
IQVIA's clinical-research bookings are outpacing revenue, with third-quarter 2026 bookings up 15% at a 1.2x book-to-bill and guidance…
LH
Labcorp Holdings
Labcorp's 11.5% Central Labs growth and raised 2026 guidance make its shares modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months.…
See also · stocks to watch