BA · Boeing
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $190.34
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
9.9% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $190.34, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 24.1% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $190.34, the 50-day average of closes on 11 November 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; or November 2026 737 deliveries of 43 or more, back to the September level.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Industrials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 27 October 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 24,188
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +3.9
- Gross margin (%)
- 9.0
- Operating margin (%)
- 1.5
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 16.0
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −25,206
- Price to earnings (×)
- 17.8
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 1.7
All filed numbers
What Boeing reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 24,188 | +3.9 | 9.0 | 1.5 |
| first filed | 24,560 | +8.0 | 9.8 | 0.6 |
| first filed | 22,217 | +14.0 | 11.5 | 2.0 |
| first filed | 23,948 | +57.1 | 7.6 | 36.7 |
| first filed | 23,270 | +30.4 | −10.2 | −20.5 |
| first filed | 22,749 | +34.9 | 10.7 | −0.8 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −123 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 7,656 | −116 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +4.3 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 4,012 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 3,996 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 16.0 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 20,714 |
| Debt ($M) non-current long-term debt and finance leases plus current debt | 45,920 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −25,206 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +16.5% on a year | 67,502 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) +17.3% on a year | 745,431 |
| Receivables ($M) | 4,069 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 6,547 |
| Market value ($M) | 135,905 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 161,111 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 1.7 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 16.5 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 17.8 |
| Price to book value (×) | 20.8 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 0.0 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 1.9% of shares outstanding sold short, 1.9 days of average trading to cover, −0.9% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $1.5M | $524K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $2.4M | $5.5M |
The thesis
Boeing's shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 than to beat it over the next three months. 737 MAX output fell to 32 deliveries in October 2026, and the airplane unit is cutting about 5% of its staff because it is building fewer jets than planned. The November delivery release, expected around 8 December 2026, shows whether 737 output recovers. Progress on the 777X engine seal and extended-operations (ETOPS) testing approval shows whether the 2027 cash targets hold. The rating is Low because neither has turned yet.
Boeing delivered 49 jets in October, down from 57 in September and 53 in October 2025, per CNBC on 10 November 2026. 737 MAX deliveries fell to 32 from 43, which matched the estimate Bloomberg published on 6 November 2026. CNBC reported that CEO Kelly Ortberg has said Boeing will miss its target of about 500 737 deliveries this year, and that the 737 reaches 47 jets a month only in early 2027.
Demand is not the constraint. Boeing booked 165 gross orders in October with no cancellations, including 140 737-10s for Avolon (CNBC, 10 November 2026). Its unit backlog rose to 6,457 jets at 31 October 2026 from 6,341 at 30 September 2026 (Benzinga, 10 November 2026). A bigger order book does not lift deliveries while wing production limits output.
The price already reflects the weak October count. The shares closed at $171.55 on 12 November 2026, down 26.0% over three months and within 3% of the 52-week closing low of $167.14 set on 28 October 2026.
Bullish and bearish views on The Boeing Company
The bull case on The Boeing Company (BA), in brief: October orders were the strongest since 1997. The bear case: the 737 count is confirmed low.
Bull case
- October orders were the strongest since 1997. Boeing booked 165 orders in October: 150 737 MAX, led by Avolon's 140 737-10s, plus 15 787s (CNBC, 10 November 2026). Quartz called it Boeing's best October for net orders since 1997.
- Directors bought after the drop. Director Mortimer Buckley bought 5,820 shares at $171.55 and Chairman Steven Mollenkopf bought 2,950 shares at $173.03, both on 30 October 2026 (SEC Form 4 filings, 3 November 2026).
- One major broker still sees upside. Barclays kept its Buy rating and $250 price target on 11 November 2026, after the October delivery count.
- Year-to-date deliveries are still up. Boeing delivered 524 jets through October, up about 6% from 493 a year earlier (CNBC, 10 November 2026). The 787 line delivered 11 jets in October.
- The staff cut lowers costs. Stephanie Pope, head of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, told staff on 9 November 2026 that the unit will cut about 5% of its workforce, with notices starting in December (CNBC). The unit lost $697 million in the third quarter, so lower fixed costs reach its margin directly.
- Cash flow and backlog give support. Third-quarter free cash flow was $464 million after about $0.7 billion of Department of Justice settlement payments, and total backlog was a record $745 billion at 30 September 2026 (8-K, 27 October 2026). Defense, Space & Security revenue rose 15% to $7.9 billion in the quarter.
Bear case
- The 737 count is confirmed low. Official October 737 deliveries were 32, the fewest since November 2025 (CNBC, 10 November 2026; Bloomberg, 6 November 2026). Wing production remains the constraint, per CNBC.
- Boeing will miss its 737 goal. Ortberg has said deliveries will fall short of about 500 737s in 2026, and the 47-a-month rate slips to early 2027 (CNBC, 10 November 2026).
- A supplier dispute hits other jets. CNBC reported on 10 November 2026 that a supplier dispute has stalled wing production for 777 Freighters and 767s, which also feed the KC-46 tanker.
- Boeing is staffing down for lower output. "Adjusting our production schedules and reducing aircraft output puts us in an overstaffed position," Pope wrote on 9 November 2026, per CNBC.
- Commercial Airplanes still loses money. The unit reported third-quarter revenue of $10.7 billion, down 3%, and an operating loss of $697 million, a (6.5)% margin (8-K, 27 October 2026).
- 777X timing waits on an engine part. Leeham News reported on 17 September 2026 that ETOPS testing cannot start until the GE9X engine mid-seal certification plan is complete, and that certification is expected to slip into 2027. Boeing's roughly $3 billion 2027 free-cash-flow target assumes certification by mid-2027.
- The balance sheet carries heavy debt. Debt was $45.9 billion against $20.7 billion of cash and marketable securities at 30 September 2026 (8-K, 27 October 2026).
- An executive sold into the weakness. Christopher Raymond, head of Boeing Global Services, sold 2,994 shares at $174.91 on 9 November 2026 (SEC Form 4, 12 November 2026).
Price setup
The shares closed at $171.55 on 12 November 2026, 32.6% below the 52-week intraday high of $254.35 set on 27 January 2026. They are down 26.0% over three months from a close of $231.67 on 14 August 2026, per adjusted daily closes.
Both trend lines sit above the price. The 50-day moving average was $189.6 and the 200-day moving average was $213.64 as of 12 November 2026. The 50-day average is falling toward the price as the higher August and September closes roll out of it.
The shares have held a narrow range since the October delivery estimate. Daily closes from 5 November to 12 November 2026 ran between $171.55 and $174.54. The 52-week closing low of $167.14 on 28 October 2026 is the nearest lower reference. A close back above the 50-day average would show buyers paying up before deliveries recover.
Catalysts ahead
- ~1 December 2026 (est.): Layoff notices begin under the 5% Commercial Airplanes workforce cut. The size and locations of the cut show how far Boeing has lowered its near-term production plan.
- ~8 December 2026 (est.): Boeing November 2026 commercial deliveries and orders. Shows whether 737 deliveries recover toward September's 43 after October's 32, and whether 777 Freighter and 767 deliveries continue despite the supplier wing dispute.
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): KC-46A Lot 13 award, needed before year-end for the 2026 cash outlook. A late award would put the roughly $2B 2026 free-cash-flow outlook at risk.
- ~26 January 2027 (est.): Boeing fourth-quarter 2026 report. It settles 2026 free cash flow and shows whether the Commercial Airplanes margin improved from the (6.5)% of Q3 2026.
- ~30 June 2027 (est.): 777-9 certification, per Boeing's planning assumption. The roughly $3B 2027 free-cash-flow target assumes certification by mid-2027; a slip would put that target and the 2027 first delivery at risk.
What would change the view
A daily close above $190.34, the 50-day average of closes on 11 November 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; or November 2026 737 deliveries of 43 or more, back to the September level.
What it trades with
Boeing shares move with news on Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) oversight of 737 production rates and new-model certification, which can outweigh reported results. They also track the engine makers whose output and parts limit deliveries, including GE Aerospace for the 777X's GE9X engine. Airbus delivered 621 jets through October against Boeing's 524 (CNBC, 10 November 2026), and the relative delivery pace of the two often shapes how the market reads each monthly release. Defense contract awards, such as the $119.7 million P-8A retrofit modification announced on 5 November 2026, rarely move the shares on their own.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Boeing delivered 49 jets in October 2026, including 32 737 MAX, 11 787s, two 777 Freighters and three 767s, down from 57 jets and 43 737s in September. Boeing October deliveries release, reported by CNBC 10 November 2026 · as of
- Boeing booked 165 gross orders in October 2026 with no cancellations, including 140 737-10s for Avolon; unit backlog rose to 6,457 jets from 6,341 at 30 September 2026. CNBC and Benzinga, 10 November 2026 · as of
- Boeing delivered 524 jets through October 2026, up about 6% from 493 a year earlier; CEO Kelly Ortberg said Boeing will miss its target of about 500 737 deliveries this year. CNBC 10 November 2026 · as of
- Boeing Commercial Airplanes will cut about 5% of its workforce through attrition and involuntary layoffs, with notices starting in December, because reduced aircraft output leaves it overstaffed. Stephanie Pope memo, reported by CNBC 9 November 2026 · as of
- Commercial Airplanes posted Q3 2026 revenue of $10.7B (down 3%) and an operating loss of $697M, a (6.5)% margin; debt was $45.9B against $20.7B of cash and marketable securities. Boeing Q3 2026 results, 8-K Ex. 99.1 · as of
- Boeing narrowed 2026 free-cash-flow guidance to about $2B and targets about $3B in 2027, $6B in 2028 and $10B in 2029; the 2027 target assumes 777X certification by mid-2027. Boeing Q3 2026 earnings call · as of
- Directors Mortimer Buckley and Steven Mollenkopf bought 5,820 shares at $171.55 and 2,950 shares at $173.03 on 30 October 2026; BGS head Christopher Raymond sold 2,994 shares at $174.91 on 9 November 2026. SEC Form 4 filings dated 3 November 2026 and 12 November 2026 · as of
- Barclays kept its Buy rating and $250 price target on Boeing after the October delivery release. Barclays rating action, reported 11 November 2026 · as of
Sources
- Boeing jet deliveries drop 14% in October · cnbc.com ·
- Boeing to cut 5% of commercial airplane workforce · cnbc.com ·
- Boeing posted best October for orders since 1997 as deliveries fell · qz.com
- Boeing 737 Max Deliveries Fall to Lowest Level Since November Last Year · bloomberg.com ·
- Examining Why Boeing's 777X Certification Timeline Is Likely Slipping · leehamnews.com ·
- BOEING CO - Form 4 - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- Avolon finalizes record order for 140 Boeing 737-10s · stocktitan.net
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