CHPT · ChargePoint Holdings
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $14.89
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
21.6% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $14.89, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 98.5% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $14.89, about 19% above the 11 November 2026 close of $12.51, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. Third-quarter revenue above the $115 million top of guidance with non-GAAP gross margin at 38% or higher would also show the call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Industrials
Quarter to 31 July 2026, filed 4 September 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 116
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +17.7
- Gross margin (%)
- 36.4
- Operating margin (%)
- −29.3
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −68.4
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −142
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 1.1
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −21.8
All filed numbers
What ChargePoint Holdings reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 116 | +17.7 | 36.4 | −29.3 |
| first filed | 102 | +4.3 | 29.1 | −46.3 |
| first filed | 109 | +7.3 | 31.5 | −48.5 |
| first filed | 106 | +6.1 | 30.7 | −42.0 |
| first filed | 98.6 | −9.2 | 31.2 | −59.8 |
| first filed | 97.6 | −8.8 | 28.7 | −55.1 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −34.1 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −176 | −35.6 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 31 July 2025 | +13.5 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −64.5 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 3.9 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −68.4 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 95.3 |
| Debt ($M) non-current long-term debt plus current maturities | 237 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −142 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) −0.7% on a year | 249 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) at 31 January 2026, filed 2 April 2026; +1.0% on a year | 260 |
| Receivables ($M) | 86.7 |
| Inventory ($M) | 180 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | −36.1 |
| Market value ($M) | 313 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 455 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 1.1 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | Not meaningful |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −21.8 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 23.0% of shares outstanding sold short, 5.8 days of average trading to cover, +21.5% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $164K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $250K | $507K |
The thesis
ChargePoint shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. A 102.1% three-month rally to a $12.51 close on 11 November 2026 has run ahead of a business that guides third-quarter revenue below its second quarter. The third-quarter report, expected in early December, shows whether revenue and margins can carry the price.
The turnaround itself is real. Revenue rose 18% to $116.1 million in the quarter ended 31 July 2026 and beat the top of guidance, and the adjusted loss before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (adjusted EBITDA) narrowed 78% to $4.8 million (company results, 2 September 2026). The latest jump came from somewhere else: LS Power's $2-per-share proposal for rival EVgo on 2 November 2026, which lifted ChargePoint about 10% that day (24/7 Wall St.).
The rating is Low because the price now leans on momentum and a takeover read-across rather than on ChargePoint's own numbers. The shares kept rising after EVgo's 9 November 2026 report showed total revenue down 1% and a wider net loss. That leaves the December report to justify a price well above every published analyst target.
Bullish and bearish views on ChargePoint Holdings, Inc.
The bull case on ChargePoint Holdings, Inc. (CHPT), in brief: second quarter beat the top of guidance. The bear case: guidance points below the second quarter.
Bull case
- Second quarter beat the top of guidance. Revenue of $116.1 million for the quarter ended 31 July 2026 topped the $100–110 million guided range and rose 18% from $98.6 million a year earlier (company results, 2 September 2026).
- Losses are shrinking fast. The adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed 78% to $4.8 million, and the net loss under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) fell to $35.6 million in the same quarter (company results, 2 September 2026).
- Hardware sales led the quarter. Networked charging systems revenue rose 25% to $62.9 million, and subscription revenue rose 10% to $43.7 million (company results, 2 September 2026).
- New products and channels are in place. ChargePoint began early-access shipments of its Express Solo fast charger and expanded its Eaton partnership (company results, 2 September 2026). It launched a European channel partner programme for resellers on 27 October 2026 (Benzinga).
- Charging networks are attracting buyers. LS Power's $2 cash proposal for EVgo was a 59% premium (Schedule 13D, reported 2 November 2026). EVgo's charging network revenue rose 29% to $71.8 million in the quarter ended 30 September 2026 (EVgo 8-K, 9 November 2026).
Bear case
- Guidance points below the second quarter. Third-quarter revenue guidance is $105–115 million, with a $110 million midpoint under the $116.1 million second quarter. Management said elevated North American home-charger sales that helped the second quarter will not recur (company results, 2 September 2026).
- One-off refunds flattered margins. Tariff refunds added 4 percentage points to the record 38% non-GAAP gross margin in the second quarter (company results, 2 September 2026).
- The cash cushion is thin. Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash were $95.7 million on 31 July 2026, against a quarterly GAAP net loss of $35.6 million (company results, 2 September 2026).
- Analyst targets sit far below the price. MarketBeat listed a $6.93 consensus target from 11 analysts on 8 November 2026, with a high of $8.50 and three sell and eight hold ratings. UBS raised its target to $9 from $8 on 22 September 2026 and kept a Neutral rating (Benzinga).
- The closest peer just reported weakness. EVgo's third-quarter total revenue fell 1% to $91.4 million and its net loss widened to $49.2 million from $28.4 million (EVgo 8-K, 9 November 2026). Its special committee said no decision has been made on the LS Power proposal.
- Officers sold near $10. The chief financial officer, chief accounting officer, general counsel and chief customer experience officer reported open-market sales at $9.86 on 22 September 2026 (SEC Form 4 filings).
Price setup
The shares closed at $12.51 on 11 November 2026 and touched a 52-week intraday high of $12.97 the same day. The 52-week closing low was $4.51 on 30 March 2026, and the 3-month reference close was $6.19 on 13 August 2026. On adjusted daily closes, the 50-day moving average is $9.11 and the 200-day is $6.86 as of 11 November 2026, both far below the price.
The shares traded at $10.51 on 2 November 2026, the day of the EVgo bid (24/7 Wall St.). That level marks where the bid-driven move began; a close back under it would mean the market has priced out the takeover read-across. The latest gains came without a company headline: the close rose from $11.59 on 6 November 2026 to $12.39 on 9 November 2026, the day EVgo reported. GuruFocus put ChargePoint's market value at about $298 million on 4 November 2026, so modest flows move the price far in either direction.
Catalysts ahead
- ~3 December 2026 (est.): ChargePoint third-quarter fiscal 2027 results (date not yet announced by the company). Shows whether revenue holds inside or beats the $105–115 million guidance, whether gross margin holds near 38% without tariff refunds, and how fast cash is being used against the $95.7 million of 31 July 2026.
What would change the view
A daily close above $14.89, about 19% above the 11 November 2026 close of $12.51, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. Third-quarter revenue above the $115 million top of guidance with non-GAAP gross margin at 38% or higher would also show the call wrong.
What it trades with
ChargePoint trades with the EV-charging group. On 2 November 2026 EVgo rose about 48%, ChargePoint about 10% and Blink Charging about 7% on one headline (24/7 Wall St.). A rejection or withdrawal of the LS Power proposal for EVgo would likely hit all three. ChargePoint rose on 9 November 2026 even as EVgo reported a revenue decline, which shows the shares are now running on their own momentum as much as on the EVgo bid. ChargePoint's own demand depends on EV adoption and on sales of home, fleet and public chargers, so its December report matters more than peer moves.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Second-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue was $116.1 million, up 18% from $98.6 million, above the $100–110 million guidance range. ChargePoint Q2 FY2027 results, 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Non-GAAP gross margin was a record 38%, including a 4-percentage-point benefit from tariff refunds; adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed 78% to $4.8 million. ChargePoint Q2 FY2027 results, 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash totalled $95.7 million. ChargePoint Q2 FY2027 results, 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Third-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue guidance is $105 million to $115 million; management said elevated home-charger sales will not recur. ChargePoint Q2 FY2027 results and earnings call · as of
- EVgo third-quarter total revenue was $91.4 million, down 1%; charging network revenue rose 29% to $71.8 million; net loss widened to $49.2 million from $28.4 million. EVgo Q3 2026 results, 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- EVgo's board formed a special committee to review LS Power's $2-per-share proposal and said no decisions have been made. EVgo Q3 2026 results, 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- ChargePoint's CFO, chief accounting officer, general counsel and chief customer experience officer reported open-market sales at $9.86 per share. SEC Form 4 filings dated 22 September 2026 · as of
- MarketBeat consensus price target is $6.93 from 11 analysts (high $8.50, low $5.00), with 3 sell and 8 hold ratings. MarketBeat CHPT price-target page · as of
Sources
- SEC EDGAR
- ChargePoint: Q2 Fiscal 2027 Revenue Rises 18% To $116.1 Million As Non-GAAP Gross Margin Hits Record 38% · pulse2.com ·
- EVgo Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- EVgo Soars 48% on $2-a-Share Buyout Offer From LS Power; ChargePoint Jumps 10%, Blink Charging Rallies 7% · 247wallst.com ·
- MarketBeat
- ChargePoint (CHPT) Shares Rally Near 52-Week High Ahead of Q3 Earnings · gurufocus.com ·
Related · shared themes
ARRY
Array Technologies
Array Technologies' shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 while they trade on the all-stock Shoals merger after a cut to 2026 guidance…
NXT
Nextpower
Nextpower beat and raised fiscal 2027 guidance to $4.2B–$4.45B revenue on 28 October 2026, and the shares closed at $104.89 on 9 November…
CSIQ
Canadian Solar
Canadian Solar's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: subsidiary CSI Solar's revenue fell 42.63% in the third…
ENPH
Enphase Energy
Enphase Energy's core residential business is shrinking faster than its transformer pivot can offset, so the shares are more likely to lag…