CLVT · Clarivate
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a weekly close above $2.39
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
2.5% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a weekly close above $2.39, set on 12 November 2026; only a weekly close settles it. The shares are up 23.3% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A weekly close above $2.39, the 10 November 2026 close and the top of the post-tender rally, which would show the shares leading; or a 2027 outlook projecting recurring organic revenue growth above 2.50%, the top of the fourth-quarter 2026 guide.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
The business · as of
Clarivate sells subscription research and intellectual-property data, including Web of Science for universities and governments and Derwent and CompuMark for patent and trademark professionals. It earns money mostly from recurring subscriptions, plus transactional sales. Revenue from continuing operations was $482 million in the quarter to 30 September 2026 (10-Q filed 3 November 2026).
What is changing, and what follows · as of
- What is changing now
- On 12 November 2026 Clarivate reported accepting $415 million of its 2028 notes and $118 million of its 2029 notes in its tender offers, out of $611.5 million and $259.3 million offered; the purchase settled on 13 November 2026.
- What follows for the company
- Buying debt back below par lowers interest costs. Management said on 3 November 2026 that cash interest falls by about $25 million in 2027 and that free cash flow should grow 10%–15%, against $4,176 million of debt at 30 September 2026.
- What follows for its customers, suppliers and competitors
- Data integrations with Microsoft (MSFT) Copilot on 2 November 2026 and Anthropic's Claude on 11 November 2026 put Clarivate's patent and trademark data inside AI assistants that customers also use for research.
What the price assumes · as of
At the 13 November 2026 close (filed inputs to 3 November 2026) the shares trade at 0.3 times book with a 21.6% free-cash-flow yield and an enterprise value of $5,410 million; EV/sales is not available and P/E not meaningful. The price assumes free cash flow near the $322 million of the four quarters to 30 September 2026 goes mainly to debt while revenue, down 9.2% in the September quarter, does not grow.
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 3 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 482
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −9.2
- Gross margin (%)
- 71.1
- Operating margin (%)
- 8.3
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 322
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −3,919
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- 21.6
All filed numbers
What Clarivate reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 482 | −9.2 | 71.1 | 8.3 |
| first filed | 587 | −5.5 | 68.4 | −34.1 |
| first filed | 586 | −1.4 | 67.2 | 5.2 |
| first filed restated | 530 | −14.8 | 66.3 | 8.7 |
| first filed | 621 | −4.4 | 67.2 | 1.1 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −20.9 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −387 | −80.8 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −4.3 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 559 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 237 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 322 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 257 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt and finance leases | 4,176 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −3,919 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) −12.4% on a year | 780 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 747 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 4,514 |
| Market value ($M) | 1,491 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 5,410 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not available |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 0.3 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 21.6 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 7.3% of shares outstanding sold short, 13.1 days of average trading to cover, −2.9% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $1.7M | $6.0M |
This note mentions Anthropic, the company that makes Claude, the AI model that wrote it. The same method and sources apply as on every note. The conflict of interest, stated.
The thesis
Clarivate's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The debt reduction paid for by the life-sciences sale is complete and already in the price. Organic recurring revenue grew 1.3% in the third quarter of 2026, which is too slow to lift the shares before the 2027 outlook. The company expects to give that outlook in February 2027.
The bond tender settled on 13 November 2026. On 12 November 2026 Clarivate said holders had offered $611.5 million of its 3.875% notes due 2028 and $259.3 million of its 4.875% notes due 2029. It accepted $415 million and $118 million and paid $979.08 and $928.75 per $1,000 of principal. More notes were offered than the caps allowed, so the company took only 67.9% of the 2028 notes and 45.5% of the 2029 notes tendered.
The shares closed at $2.33 on 13 November 2026, up 23.3% over three months. That is close to Goldman Sachs's $2.30 target of 5 November 2026. The rating is Low because the buyback has been public since the tender launched on 4 November 2026. The next fact that could change how the market values the business, the 2027 guidance, arrives at or after the end of the three-month window. Chief Executive Matti Shem Tov and Chief Financial Officer Michael Easton present at the RBC Capital Markets technology conference on 18 November 2026, their first public appearance since the tender.
Bullish and bearish views on Clarivate Plc
The bull case on Clarivate Plc (CLVT), in brief: debt is being retired below par. The bear case: growth is still near zero.
Bull case
- Debt is being retired below par. The 12 November 2026 results release confirmed $533 million of principal bought back at $979.08 and $928.75 per $1,000, so each dollar of cash retired more than a dollar of debt. On the 3 November 2026 call, Easton said the company expects to cut debt by about $875 million in 2026.
- Recurring growth is turning up. Organic annual contract value (ACV) rose 1.8% from a year earlier at 30 September 2026. The company guides fourth-quarter recurring organic growth of 2.00%–2.50%, above the full-year range of 1.00%–1.50% (third-quarter release, 3 November 2026).
- Intellectual property contract value grows again. On the 3 November 2026 call, Shem Tov said ACV in the Intellectual Property (IP) segment had grown for the first time in more than three years. He cited a US Patent and Trademark Office trademark image-search win.
- Cash generation is large against the share price. Free cash flow was $322 million over the four quarters to 30 September 2026, according to the 10-Q filed 3 November 2026. Management guides 2026 free cash flow of $320–340 million and, on the 3 November 2026 call, described 10%–15% growth in 2027, helped by about $25 million less cash interest.
- Its data now feeds AI assistants. Clarivate added CompuMark trademark data to Microsoft Copilot on 2 November 2026 and Derwent and Darts-ip patent data to Anthropic's Claude on 11 November 2026, both through its IPOne platform. Management reported more than 465 million AI application programming interface (API) calls on the 3 November 2026 call, over 2.5 times the previous year's volume.
Bear case
- Growth is still near zero. Revenue from continuing operations was $481.6 million in the third quarter of 2026, against $530.3 million a year earlier, and organic revenue grew 0.4% (third-quarter release, 3 November 2026). Transactional revenue fell 12.4% organically.
- Leverage remains heavy. Total debt was $4,176.1 million and cash $257.0 million at 30 September 2026, according to the third-quarter release. The $533 million tender retires only a small part of that debt.
- Losses continue under GAAP. The third-quarter net loss was $80.8 million, including a $62.2 million non-cash goodwill impairment on the life-sciences unit. On 3 November 2026 the company cut its 2026 GAAP earnings-per-share (EPS) outlook to a loss of $0.65 to $0.62.
- Fourth-quarter guidance came in below expectations. On 3 November 2026 the company guided fourth-quarter adjusted EPS of $0.14–$0.18. Benzinga reported a $0.19 consensus the same day.
- Analyst targets sit at the share price. Goldman Sachs kept a Neutral rating and cut its target to $2.30 from $2.60 on 5 November 2026. That target is below the $2.33 close of 13 November 2026.
- Insiders have not bought. SEC Form 4 filings from August to October 2026 show only share grants and shares withheld for tax, with no open-market purchases. One example: 263,576 shares were withheld from Henry Levy, President of Life Sciences & Healthcare, at $1.47 on 6 October 2026.
Price setup
The shares closed at $2.33 on 13 November 2026. That is above the 50-day moving average of $1.85 and the 200-day moving average of $2.19, both as of that close. The 52-week closing low was $1.45 on 5 October 2026, the day before the life-sciences sale closed. The 52-week intraday high was $3.87 on 28 November 2025, and the last close is 39.8% below it. The three-month change is measured from a $1.89 close on 17 August 2026.
The rally after the tender has stalled. Closes stayed in a narrow band from 6 November to 13 November 2026: they peaked on 10 November 2026, the day the tender was priced, and ended the week at $2.33 after the notes settled. The recovery now has to hold the 200-day average. A close back below it would put the shares back in the range they held before the tender.
Across US stocks priced at $3 or more and trading at least $5 million a day, three-month returns had a standard deviation of 27% in 2026, so a 23.3% gain over three months is within the normal range.
Catalysts ahead
- 18 November 2026: CEO and CFO presentation at the RBC Capital Markets Global Technology, Internet, Media and Telecommunications Conference, 2 p.m. Eastern. This is the first public update since the tender settled. Any comment on fourth-quarter contract value or 2027 growth tests the 2.00%–2.50% fourth-quarter recurring growth guide.
- ~25 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 results and 2027 guidance. Shows whether recurring organic growth reached the 2.00%–2.50% fourth-quarter guide and whether the 2027 outlook supports the 10%–15% free cash flow growth management described.
What would change the view
A weekly close above $2.39, the 10 November 2026 close and the top of the post-tender rally, which would show the shares leading; or a 2027 outlook projecting recurring organic revenue growth above 2.50%, the top of the fourth-quarter 2026 guide.
What it trades with
Clarivate is grouped with AI enterprise software companies such as EPAM, Appian and Procore. Its shares have moved on its own balance-sheet news instead. In November the shares moved most around the third-quarter report on 3 November 2026 and the tender on 4 November to 13 November 2026, and no peer's results coincided with those moves. A common market view is that heavily indebted companies trade with credit conditions and the price of their own bonds more than with sector valuations. The AI link cuts both ways. The Copilot and Claude integrations widen the reach of Clarivate's data, but the same tools could replace part of what customers pay for. Third-quarter 2026 revenue does not yet show either effect.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 continuing-operations revenue was $481.6 million against $530.3 million a year earlier; organic revenue rose 0.4%, organic recurring revenue 1.3%, and organic transactional revenue fell 12.4%. Third-quarter 2026 earnings release (8-K Exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Organic annual contract value rose 1.8% from a year earlier. Third-quarter 2026 earnings release (8-K Exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Clarivate's 2026 guidance: revenue $1,965–1,985 million, adjusted EBITDA $865–885 million, free cash flow $320–340 million, adjusted EPS $0.73–$0.77. Third-quarter 2026 earnings release (8-K Exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Third-quarter 2026 net loss was $80.8 million ($0.13 per share), including a $62.2 million non-cash goodwill impairment on the life-sciences unit. Third-quarter 2026 earnings release (8-K Exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Total debt was $4,176.1 million and cash $257.0 million. Third-quarter 2026 earnings release (8-K Exhibit 99.1) · as of
- The Life Sciences & Healthcare sale closed for net cash proceeds of $488.4 million. Third-quarter 2026 earnings release (8-K Exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Holders tendered $611.5 million of 2028 notes and $259.3 million of 2029 notes; Clarivate accepted $415 million and $118 million at $979.08 and $928.75 per $1,000, with proration factors of 67.9% and 45.5%, and settled on 13 November 2026. Clarivate tender final results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Goldman Sachs cut its Clarivate price target to $2.30 from $2.60 and kept a Neutral rating. Goldman Sachs note reported by MarketBeat and Benzinga · as of
Sources
- CLARIVATE PLC - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- SEC EDGAR
- SEC EDGAR ·
- Clarivate to Present at the RBC Capital Markets Global Technology, Internet, Media and Telecommunications Conference on November 18 · prnewswire.co.uk
- Clarivate (CLVT) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript · fool.com ·
- Clarivate (NYSE:CLVT) Stock Gets Price Target Cut from The Goldman Sachs Group · marketbeat.com ·
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