GLOB · Globant
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $53.29
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
14.8% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $53.29, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 25.3% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $53.29, well over the $49.24 close of 5 November 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; third-quarter revenue above the $615 million top of guidance together with raised 2026 revenue guidance would also prove this call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Filed figures are not available: no quarterly report in US GAAP with the SEC (a foreign filer reports on Form 20-F or 40-F).
All filed numbers
What Globant reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): the share of shares outstanding is not available, 10.5 days of average trading to cover, −28.3% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $585K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $972K | $585K |
This note mentions Anthropic, the company that makes Claude, the AI model that wrote it. The same method and sources apply as on every note. The conflict of interest, stated.
The thesis
Globant's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than to lead it over the next three months. The price has run ahead of a business that guides 2026 revenue flat to down, and Guggenheim's downgrade on 11 November 2026 points to another flat year in 2027. The third-quarter report on 19 November 2026 shows whether Glob.AI growth is large enough to change that.
Guggenheim cut Globant to Neutral from Buy and removed its $50 price target, Investing.com reported on 11 November 2026. The firm cited weak bookings, softness in the Middle East, a possible ramp-down at a large gaming client and a fourth-quarter 2026 exit rate roughly flat year over year. It expects a sequential decline into the first quarter of 2027. The shares closed at $46.34 on 11 November 2026, against $48.81 on 10 November 2026.
The most recent business figures are still the 13 August 2026 second-quarter release. Revenue was $614.4 million, against $614.2 million a year earlier, and Glob.AI annual recurring revenue (ARR) was $52.8 million. Since then the news has been product and partner announcements and analyst target changes, not results.
The price already reflects a recovery the guidance does not yet show: the $46.34 close on 11 November 2026 sits above MarketBeat's $45.75 average analyst target of 30 October 2026. The rating is Low because the one new fact, the Guggenheim downgrade, cuts against growth visibility, and the price leaves little room for a report that only meets guidance.
Bullish and bearish views on GLOBANT S.A.
The bull case on GLOBANT S.A. (GLOB), in brief: AI recurring revenue is compounding fast. The bear case: a Buy-rated firm stepped back.
Bull case
- AI recurring revenue is compounding fast. Glob.AI ARR reached $52.8 million in the second quarter, up 61% quarter over quarter, per the 13 August 2026 release. The company expects no less than $110 million exiting 2026.
- The AI product line keeps widening. Globant launched Glob.AI on 6 August 2026, priced on output or consumption, and added Glob.AI OS on 27 October 2026. The company says the new governance layer connects to more than 320 AI models.
- Anthropic adds a credible partner. Investing.com reported on 1 October 2026 that an alliance with Anthropic would deliver Claude-powered AI Pods to Globant clients.
- The valuation is low against earnings. Guggenheim put the shares at about 8 times its 2027 earnings per share (EPS) estimate on 11 November 2026, a discount to peers. It said it would revisit the rating on signs of bookings momentum or further multiple compression.
- Buyback capacity is large against the company's size. $125.0 million remained under the repurchase authorization at 30 June 2026, per the 13 August 2026 release. MarketBeat put the market value at $2.03 billion on 30 October 2026.
Bear case
- A Buy-rated firm stepped back. Guggenheim downgraded to Neutral on 11 November 2026, citing modest upside from current levels and weak bookings, and expects 2027 to be another year of flat growth, per Investing.com.
- Revenue guidance shows no growth. Full-year 2026 guidance from the 13 August 2026 release is $2,428 million to $2,462 million. Third-quarter guidance is $607 million to $615 million, against $614.2 million in the second quarter of 2025.
- The client count is shrinking. Customers generating more than $100,000 over the trailing twelve months fell to 904 at the second quarter from 981 a year earlier, per the 13 August 2026 release. Accounts above $1 million fell to 331 from 339.
- Profitability is compressing. Adjusted operating margin fell to 13.2% in the second quarter from 15.0% a year earlier, and adjusted EPS fell to $1.40 from $1.53, per the 13 August 2026 release.
- Target raises came without upgrades. Citi raised its target to $46 from $37 and kept Neutral on 26 October 2026, per fiscal.ai. Wells Fargo raised to $48 from $39 the same day and kept Equal-Weight, per Benzinga. Citi's target sits below the 11 November 2026 close.
Price setup
The shares closed at $46.34 on 11 November 2026, 35.7% below the 52-week intraday high of $72.10 set on 5 December 2025. The 52-week closing low was $27.73 on 25 June 2026. Over three months the shares are up 13.1% from the $40.99 close on 13 August 2026, the day of the second-quarter release.
The rally since mid-October ran from a $39.56 close on 16 October 2026 to $49.24 on 5 November 2026, the highest close in November. The shares then closed at $47.41 on 6 November 2026 and 9 November 2026, $48.81 on 10 November 2026 and $46.34 on 11 November 2026, the session of the Guggenheim downgrade.
As of 11 November 2026 the close sits above both the 50-day moving average of $39.90 and the 200-day moving average of $41.32. A fall back toward the 200-day average after the 19 November 2026 report would be consistent with the lag call; a close above the 5 November 2026 high of $49.24 would show the shares regaining the October-to-November advance.
SEC Form 4 filings show open-market sales by two officers before the October rally: Chief Technology Officer Diego Tártara sold 6,000 shares at $40.45 on 28 August 2026, and Chief Revenue Officer Fernando Matzkin sold 2,500 shares at $40.00 on 3 September 2026. The other Form 4 filings since mid-August are routine director share grants dated 1 September 2026.
Catalysts ahead
- 19 November 2026: Third-quarter 2026 results after the US market close; video call at 4:30 p.m. ET. Shows whether revenue lands inside the $607 million to $615 million guidance, whether Glob.AI ARR is on track for $110 million by year end, and whether bookings support or contradict Guggenheim's flat-2027 view.
What would change the view
A daily close above $53.29, well over the $49.24 close of 5 November 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; third-quarter revenue above the $615 million top of guidance together with raised 2026 revenue guidance would also prove this call wrong.
What it trades with
Globant sells into the same enterprise technology budgets as EPAM, Accenture, Grid Dynamics and Kyndryl. A peer guiding down on discretionary client spending would support Guggenheim's bookings concern; a peer reporting a bookings recovery would weaken it. MarketBeat listed Globant's beta, its sensitivity to the wider market, at 0.98 on 30 October 2026, so the shares tend to move with the index and company results drive most of the gap.
Guggenheim's 11 November 2026 note ties part of the risk to specific exposures, the Middle East and a large gaming client. Those make Globant's results less correlated with US-centred IT services peers than the peer list suggests.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Guggenheim downgraded Globant to Neutral from Buy and removed its $50 price target, citing weak bookings, Middle East softness, a possible large gaming-client ramp-down and a roughly flat Q4 2026 exit rate. Investing.com, 'Guggenheim downgrades Globant stock rating citing soft bookings' · as of
- Globant will release third-quarter 2026 results on 19 November 2026 after the US market close, with a video call at 4:30 p.m. ET. Globant investor relations announcement · as of
- Q2 2026 revenue $614.4 million against $614.2 million in Q2 2025; adjusted diluted EPS $1.40 against $1.53; adjusted operating margin 13.2% against 15.0%. Globant Q2 2026 results, Form 6-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Glob.AI ARR $52.8 million, up 61% quarter over quarter; the company expects no less than $110 million exiting 2026. Globant Q2 2026 results, Form 6-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Full-year 2026 revenue guidance $2,428 million to $2,462 million; Q3 revenue guidance $607 million to $615 million; Q3 adjusted EPS guidance $1.43 to $1.53. Globant Q2 2026 results, Form 6-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Customers above $100,000 of trailing twelve-month revenue fell to 904 from 981 a year earlier; accounts above $1 million fell to 331 from 339. Globant Q2 2026 results, Form 6-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Citi kept Neutral and raised its price target to $46 from $37; Wells Fargo kept Equal-Weight and raised its price target to $48 from $39. fiscal.ai and Benzinga analyst headlines · as of
- Consensus rating Hold with an average price target of $45.75; five buy, 11 hold and two sell ratings. MarketBeat · as of
Sources
- Guggenheim downgrades Globant stock rating citing soft bookings · ca.investing.com ·
- Globant to Announce Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results on November 19th · investors.globant.com ·
- Globant S.A. - Form 6-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- MarketBeat ·
- Finviz
- Globant Introduces Glob.AI, Reinventing Technology Services for the AI Era · globant.com
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